April 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Victoria

Information

Future Developments:  The high influencing much of eastern Australia's weather over the past couple of days will remain slow moving, strengthening a ridge northwards along the east coast.  The trough through inland New South Wales and Queensland, while moving westward during Tuesday, may also extend into northern Victoria, but is likely to remain largely inactive, except around the New South Wales / Queensland border region. Northern parts of the Top End, parts of the Gulf Country and Cape York will again be affected by late season shower activity.

The trough through Western Australia has been gaining moisture from the Indian Ocean near to 20S, with the moisture now most evident between 700 and 500hPa (10,000 to 18,000') - the trough will continue to move slowly through the southeast of the state during Tuesday triggering showers and isolated slow moving thunderstorms.  Temperatures will warm with the approach of the trough as winds swing through the NE - NW.

Potential Risks: Some local flooding is possible in southern parts of Western Australia associated with slow moving thunderstorms.  

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Mainly fine with morning fog patches.
NSW:  Showers along the coast in a SE flow. Scattered showers and isolated storms in inland northern regions associated with a mid-level disturbance. Only isolated showers in the west are possible with the trough.
Queensland:  Showers, mainly in the southeast with isolated storms, and about Cape York & the Gulf Country.
NT: Isolated showers along the Top End coast, mainly in the east.
WA:  Showers and isolated storms in the south associated with the trough, moving east through Tuesday.
SA:   Isolated middle level showers are a risk in the west as the trough moves towards the state. Mainly fine elsewhere.
Tasmania:   Showers in the west and south, becoming more frequent with the passage of a front.

Future Developments:  A large cold pool is moving NE from the Southern Ocean towards the Bight. This will intensify the temperature gradient between the very warm air to the east and the colder air following the trough. The arrival of this trough and frontal system across SE Australia Wednesday / Thursday will be followed by a substantial thermal trough, which may move slowly across SE Australia. In northern Australia, the monsoon season is drawing to a close, with only isolated showers and storms lingering over Cape York, the far north of the Northern Territory and the northern Kimberley. No substantial falls are anticipated.

The high in the southern Indian Ocean should move towards the western Bight area mid-week and direct drier NE - SE winds over the southern part of Western Australia, and then move east towards SE Australia by the weekend.   In the tropical areas, the only area of positive convection is NE of Vanuatu - this region still has potential & is a region of interest for the next couple of days.

Temperatures: The warm phase over E & SE Australia is showing signs of breaking down, especially in Victoria and New South Wales.  The trough during Wednesday through Friday will bring significantly colder air across southern South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.The tropics and the northern half of Western Australia will remain seasonally warm, although nights will become colder over the southern parts of both the Northern Territory   & Western Australia by Thursday.  

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Likelihood of good rain Wednesday through Friday with the deepening long wave trough and associated thermal trough (upper cold pool).  This will intensify large areas of lifting through western Victoria later Wednesday, with the focus of the band of rain and showers shifting to central NW Victoria late Wednesday and Thursday. There is good moisture loading ahead of this system.
NSW: Showers on the coast gradually diminishing.  The arrival of the trough in the west, may generate patchy rain, mostly contracting to the Southern Highlands later in the week. Coastal showers along the southern & central coasts later in the weekend are likely, especially if the high in the Bight ridges into the southern Tasman Sea.
Queensland: Afternoon and night showers about the Cape York Peninsula with possible storms.  Isolated showers in coastal areas, with the chance of patchy light rain in the SW later in the week.
NT: Isolated afternoon showers and possible storms mainly over the northern Top End, from Darwin to Yirrkala. Mid and high cloud in the southern interior with the risk of patchy rain mid-week.
WA:  Isolated showers and possible storms over the northern Kimberley.   Risk of only isolated storms over southern Kimberley. Showers on the south coast extending inland at times with the passage of the fronts.
SA:  Patchy rain and isolated storms accompanying the passage of the trough during Tuesday / Wednesday, mostly in southern & settled areas, possibly tending to rain in the SE. A few coastal showers to follow.
Tasmania:  The arrival of the trough on Wednesday / Thursday will bring general rain across the state, followed by showers, locally heavy in western, southern & mountain areas. Some showers tending to snow later Thursday / Friday over higher parts.

Future Developments:  The high south of Tasmania will strengthen and move towards New Zealand and slow its progress, continuing the cradling effect for the low(s). The most westward of the low(s) in the Tasman Sea  moving north along the New South Wales coast, looks to deepen overnight & bring local heavy falls close to the coast as it passes with accompanying strong winds.

Convergence lines may continue across the north of Australia associated with outflow from the trough located over the Arafura Sea. The trough through Western Australia should deepen during Monday and may trigger showers and isolated storms, mainly in the south. A front is approaching the SW Western Australian coast followed by an extensive cold air field.

Potential Risks: Heavy falls & possible strong winds along the New South Wales coast extending north with local heavy falls from the returning cloudband over east Gippsland and SE New South Wales.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Continued falls, some heavy over east Gippsland, isolated elsewhere, mainly on and south of the ranges.
NSW: Heavy falls along the central coast, extending north.  Falls may extend inland and along the ranges.  Isolated storms possible in the northeast.
Queensland: Isolated showers in the far north.
NT: Isolated showers over the coast of the Top End.
WA:  Isolated showers along the Kimberley coast.  Showers with possible storms in the southwest, extending east, mainly close to the coast.
SA:  Isolated mid-level showers are possible in the southwest & central areas.
Tasmania:  Isolated showers in the northeast.

Future Developments: The high in the Bight will ridge under Tasmania during the next day or so, and the east coast low will remain cut-off and looks likely to continue to lurk just off the coasts of Victoria and Tasmania in the eastern Bass Strait area during Sunday and continue to produce moderate falls over eastern Victoria and  northeastern Tasmania, with a risk of the rain areas spreading west. Much of New South Wales and Queensland comes under the influence of an upper high, with relatively warm temperatures for late April with clear skies. The convective area in the Arafura Sea should be watched as it moves steadily west.

The West Australian trough will move east during Sunday, triggering showers as it catches up with the baroclinic area just to its east & begins to interact with it.  An extensive cold airfield at 850hPa (~7,000') is still well to the southwest of Western Australia. The western districts of South Australia will see increasing cloud & the possibility of mid-level showers.

Potential Risks: The 'baroclinic leaf' of cloud over Western Australia should be watched for signs of vorticity. Heavy falls are likely in east Gippsland and possibly northeast Tasmania.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers tending to rain periods in the east, with showers extending west into the central districts.  Drizzle south of the ranges in the west. 
NSW: Showers along the south coast, extending inland to the mountains.
Queensland: Fine except for isolated showers possible in the far west Gulf Country & top of Cape York.
NT: Scattered showers with isolated storms over the Top End, more frequent near the coast, but extending further south at times.
WA:  Showers in the central west, extending to the Eucla during Sunday.   Scattered showers with possible storms associated with the WA trough in the south. Isolated showers in the Kimberley & Pilbara.
SA:  Mid-level showers possible in the west.
Tasmania:  Showers tending to rain at times in the northeast.  Showers in the west.

Future Developments: The ridge from the high in the western Bight may cut the trough off from the westerly flow to the south of Australian latitudes, and leave southeastern Australia under a broad trough  through much of the weekend. Showers are again possible along the coast adjacent to the low and likely through parts of eastern Victoria & northeastern Tasmania associated with the returning cloudband. The high over New Zealand will begin to move east and its departure will allow the east coast low to begin moving away through the Tasman, but only slowly. Pressures over northern Australia generally will begin to rise slowly over the next day or so, and areas affected by an onshore flow of tropical moisture (NW Western Australia & the Top End of the Territory) may experience isolated showers.

The West Australian surface trough will deepen ahead of the approaching low, and then begin to move east during Saturday in association with the low approaching Western Australia which in turn is associated with a strengthening long wave trough in the upper levels.  South Australia will be affected by the ridge of high pressure separating the trough to the east and the trough to the west.

Potential Risks: Possible heavy falls in far east Gippsland.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers in the east, with scattered showers extending from the west during Saturday.
NSW:  Isolated showers on the far south coast.
Queensland: Mainly fine throughout except for isolated showers over the top of Cape York.
NT: Isolated showers along the Top End coast.
WA:  Isolated showers on the Kimberley coast.  Scattered showers in the west and southwest with isolated storms, extending east.
SA:  Showers in the southeast.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west.  Rain periods in the east.

Future Developments: The east coast low will continue to drift only slowly S-SW during Friday and Saturday, while remaining cradled by the ridge of high pressure from the high near New Zealand - it may temporarily weaken during Friday before restrengthening during Saturday. The SW movement of this low during Friday will depend on the New Zealand high strengthening. The convective area near Vanuatu will likely become better organised during Friday and should be monitored.

The trough in the Bight will weaken as it drifts east & become absorbed into the circulation dominated by the low over southeast Australia during Friday and Saturday. NW winds will strengthen in South Australia and western Victoria ahead of this trough. Middle level showers are likely.

Potential Risks: Heavy falls are a risk along the southern New South Wales coast & in eastern Victoria may lead to local flooding during the next few days.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Rain periods in the east, with local heavy falls in the far east.  Isolated showers in the west. Humid with the chance of showers in central districts.
NSW:  Scattered showers on the far south coast.
Queensland: Isolated showers over northern Cape York.
NT: Isolated showers over the northwestern Top End.
WA:  Isolated showers in the Pilbara & Kimberley, possibly extending inland.  Drizzle in the south, clearing.
SA:  Scattered showers through southern districts, extending east.   Isolated storms in the southeast.
Tasmania:  Showers, tending to rain periods extending to central districts from the north and east.

Future Developments: The ridge from the high over New Zealand will weaken during Thursday and will enable the low to continue to move steadily southwest along the New South Wales coast through to the end of the week. The location of the heaviest falls will be determined by the alignment of the returning cloudband. Part of the southern portion of the cloudband is likely to be dragged towards New Zealand by the upper jet.  The convective area NW of Fiji is likely to remain an identity during Thursday - but worth watching, while the weak convective area near Cape York will also remain, but may be influenced by the upper jet.

The low over southern Western Australia is losing its previously strong moisture infeed and will weaken as it moves east, although a trailing cold pool in the middle levels may destabilise conditions associated with this system if it catches up with the low during Thursday / Friday. Temperatures in South Australia will warm as the winds swing around to N - NW ahead of the trough approaching from Western Australia.  Victoria and Tasmania will remain under a moist SE onshore flow.

Potential Risks: Heavy falls along the New South Wales coast & in eastern Victoria may lead to local flooding during the next few days.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Rain periods, with local heavy falls in the east.  Isolated showers in the west. Humid.
NSW:  Widespread showers tending to rain periods, locally heavy, with scattered storms over most of the eastern half of the state - becoming more general in the central and southeast.
Queensland: Scattered showers over Cape York with isolated showers in the southeast.
NT: Isolated showers along the Top End coast.
WA:  Scattered showers  & isolated storm in the Kimberley.   Showers & isolated storms in much of the south, moving east.
SA:  Middle level showers in the west, extending east.
Tasmania:  Showers in the east and north, extending to rain periods at times.

Future Developments: The trough over eastern Australia will move east, but only slowly in the south - which will see a continuation of  unsettled conditions in northern and eastern Victoria.  An upper low looks likely to form over northern inland NSW / southern Queensland during Tuesday / Wednesday and drift east. The convective area NW of Fiji looks likely to show signs of improved upper outflow during Wednesday.  A weak surge of NW cross equatorial moisture may trigger storms over the northern coast of the Top End, while the cloud over Cape York will continue thickening in response to the jet along the eastern Queensland coast.

TC Bonnie (on her last warning), although weak, will continue moving WNW, and may become better organised. The low near to the southern regions of Western Australia will move slowly eastward, and with it, associated heavy falls.  South Australia will remain under the influence of a ridge of high pressure during Wednesday. 

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers with isolated storms mainly in the east and northeast & along the ranges at times. Rain periods in the east are likely to continue.
NSW:  Showers and storms, particularly in the north and east, with heavy falls likely during periods of rain.  Isolated storms in the south.
Queensland:  Scattered showers and storms across Cape York with isolated showers along the east coast, possibly locally heavy in the southern inland.
NT: Isolated showers & possible storms in the northern Top End, particularly along the coast.
WA:  Showers in the south, tending to rain with isolated storms. Activity extending east through the Gascoyne, Goldfields and into the Eucla. 
SA:  Mainly fine except for mid level showers in the west developing. Isolated storms possible.
Tasmania:  Isolated showers in the north & east.

Future Developments: The high over New Zealand will remain quasi-stationary. The trough over New South Wales is likely to continue edging slowly southward to include Victoria during Tuesday while continuing to influence much of Australia's weather. Moist infeed from the Pacific will enhance shower & storm activity, particularly in New South Wales. The area of convection to the north of the Gulf of Carpentaria may become better organised during Tuesday & Wednesday, but this will depend partly on the influence of the strengthening upper jet over Queensland.

Upper level vorticity (500 - 300hPa - 18,500 to 30,000') near to the trough moving through southern Western Australia looks likely to translate to the surface with a low developing in the SW Western Australia region during Tuesday.

Potential Risks: Locally heavy falls are likely through inland New South Wales, especially with slow moving storms.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers & storms, in the north and east of the state, extending south of the ranges.
NSW:  Scattered showers and storms over much of the state except the far SW. 
Queensland:  Scattered showers and storms over much of the state. Storms more frequent over Cape York.
NT: Isolated showers & storms over the northeast Top End.
WA:  Showers and storms in the south, becoming more widespread & tending to rain periods. Isolated showers possible in the southern Pilbara.
SA:  Isolated middle level showers in the southwest. isolated storms in the northeast.
Tasmania:  Occasional drizzle patches in the east.

Its an interesting upper cold pool cut-off not very much speed shear at 300hpa although seems to be drifting southward slowly, I like these sort of systems...they are notoriously difficult to predict in their motion - the connected upper trough still seems to the west of Melbourne with upper cirrus still drifting from the north here in Geelong.

Future Developments: The trough currently over eastern Australia looks to remain active through to midweek. The high over Tasmania will move into the southern Tasman Sea during Monday and strengthen while ridging westwards into SE Western Australia east of an approaching trough. The convective area in the Arafura Sea will remain north of the Top End & should be monitored for signs of improving organisation. TC Bonnie is expected to restrengthen during Monday as the system moves into a more suitable environment. The trough off the Western Australian coast will approach the SW during Monday and the high following will ridge towards Tasmania, which looks to help keep the next troughs in our latitudes.

Potential Risks: Some heavy falls are likely in eastern NSW with slow moving storms. The convective area in the Arafura Sea should be monitored for improving organisation.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers & isolated storms, mainly in the central and northeast, particularly along the ranges.
NSW:   Showers and isolated storms in the east of the state.  Heavy falls possible.
Queensland:  Scattered showers through much of the state.  Isolated storms in the west and over Cape York.
NT: Scattered showers and isolated storms, particular over the NE Top End.
WA:  Scattered showers in the SE, with drizzle patches & showers developing in the SW.  Isolated showers in the Kimberley.
SA:  Warming conditions, mainly fine with isolated showers in he northeast.
Tasmania:  Mild.  Isolated showers in the north.

Future Developments: The ridge along the east coast has weakened through Saturday and the high has moved east of New Zealand. The high in the Bight will continue to move east towards Tasmania and strengthen slowly.  A weak ridge along the New South Wales coast may help slow the eastward movement of the trough, leading to a continuation through Sunday of showers & storms through large areas of the eastern states.

Ex TC Dianne looks likely to continue moving SW past Western Australia , while Bonnie will move to the SW away from Java and weaken. Tropical infeed will continue through Sunday, with the upper trough over South Australia moving east to affect Victoria, New South Wales and southern parts of Queensland.

Potential Risks: Scattered heavy falls are  likely through parts of eastern Australia.  The area of convection in the Arafura Sea should be monitored as it moves west.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers & drizzle patches south of the ranges.   Isolated storms in the north & northeast.
NSW:   Widespread showers & scattered storms through much of the east of the state, isolated in the NW.
Queensland:  Showers & storms across Cape York, more scattered over the inland, with showers along the coast and in the southeast.
NT: Scattered showers across the Top End, tending to areas of rain.
WA:  Scattered showers with isolated storms in the south, isolated storms in the Kimberley.
SA:  Showers and isolated storms particularly in the northeast.
Tasmania: Mainly fine.

Future Developments:  The high over New Zealand will remain quasi-stationary with the ridge along the east coast of Australia remaining during Friday, while the ridge through Bass Strait and South Australia will weaken. TC Bonnie looks likely to move in a WSW direction. The high moving into the Bight will continue to move steadily east & strengthen a ridge along the south coast of Western Australia.

The trough moving through southeastern Western Australia will deepen as it moves east and continues to draw moisture in from TC Dianne. Moisture  over southeastern Australia will continue to build ahead of the approaching trough, and together with cooling in the middle levels looks to trigger showers and storms through South Australia and Victoria as the trough progresses eastwards over the next day or two.

Potential Risks: Some heavy falls are possible in South Australia and Victoria during Friday and the weekend.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers developing in the west during Friday and becoming more widespread through later Friday and Saturday.  Isolated storms likely.
NSW:  Scattered showers and storms in the central and northern parts of the coastal fringe.  Possible showers and storms in the southwest.
Queensland:  Showers and isolated storms about the Gulf country & Cape York - mainly dry elsewhere.
NT: Scattered showers and storms across the Top End, more frequent in the north.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms across the Kimberley and in a broad band from NW Cape extending southeast with the trough.
SA:  Scattered showers and storms throughout becoming more frequent in the east during the weekend.
Tasmania: Showers with an isolated storm possible later Friday or Saturday.

Future Developments:  The high over New Zealand will strengthen and maintain a broad ridge over Australia's east coast during Thursday. The baric ridge connecting the high pressure cells has begun to move north to lie through southern Victoria, across to Perth and then to the high moving in from the Indian Ocean.

TC Bonnie looks most likely to continue to move WSW parallel to the West Australian coast during Thursday.  Moisture from TC Dianne in the Indian Ocean will feed into Western Australia, and together with upper outflow from Bonnie, will feed increasing amounts of moisture across the continent to the southeast during the next day or three. This cloudband is likely to produce showers through inland Western Australia and South Australia, and the baroclinic area over northern South Australia marks the location of a developing upper trough.

Potential Risks: The moist infeed band in the mid & upper levels extending from the 2 TCs in the west towards southeastern Australia should be watched for signs of development (cloud thickening or expanding / tilting) during the next day or two.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers mainly in the east, becoming less frequent with a possibility of an isolated storm along the central and eastern ranges. 
NSW:  Showers & storms in the eastern half of the state, mainly in the south, but extending to central areas later.
Queensland: Isolated showers about the north of Cape York, isolated showers along the east coast.
NT: Showers and scattered storms continuing in the Top End. Isolated storms possible in the southwest.
WA:  Scattered showers & storms over the Kimberley. Isolated showers in the Geraldton - NW Cape area, extending to the Goldfields. Isolated drizzle patches along the southeast coast.
SA:  Middle level showers associated with the infeed of tropical moisture.
Tasmania: Isolated showers, mainly in the west, clearing.

Future Developments:  The high in the Tasman will edge only slowly east with the east coast ridge remaining   along the coast. The southeast of the continent will experience increasing temperatures as the Tasman high directs NE - NW winds across much of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Tropical activity will move westwards during Wednesday and affect the western part of the Northern Territory and the the Kimberley.  Outflow from TC Dianne is moving across the Western Australian coast. The next strong high is well to the west of the Australian latitudes and already ridging through southern Western Australia.  Another deep low in the far south of the Bight will move east. 

The trough located in Victoria will remain slow moving through Tuesday night & Wednesday and may trigger isolated showers & possible storms mainly in the west and along the ranges, dependent on the moisture supply, which is improving as moisture from the area of convection northwest of Darwin is drawn into the system. The ridge from the high to the west of Australia will tend towards Tasmania, effectively cradling the trough over the southeast.

Potential Risks: The low northwest of Darwin looks to move southwest parallel to the Western Australian coast over the coming days.  Watch for improvement in organisation & also upper outflow!

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers with isolated storms, mainly in the west and about the ranges.
NSW:  Isolated showers and storms in the southwest.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the east coast with scattered showers & isolated storms about Cape York.
NT: Scattered showers and storms over the Top End, becoming less frequent.
WA:  Drizzle patches along the south coast clearing.  Scattered showers & isolated storms in the Kimberley region, extending westward & inland. Showers amy become more extensive near the Pilbara as a convergence area develops over the region.
SA:  Showers in the south, mainly along the coast, clearing from the west.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in the west and more frequently over higher ground.

The convective area west of Darwin has shown a marked increase in upper divergence over the past six hours although low level convergence is patchy worth watching over the next 12 hours or so. TC Diane is looking very nice west of Aus, the outflow has improved and heading for WA looks to be approaching cat 3+.

Future Developments:  The high in the Tasman will edge only slowly east with the east coast ridge remaining  along the coast. The southeast of the continent will experience increasing temperatures as the Tasman high directs N - NE winds across much of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Tropical activity will move westwards towards Timor during Tuesday and affect the western part of the Northern Territory and the eastern part of the Kimberley.  Outflow from the currently weakening TC Dianne is moving towards Western Australia. The next strong high is well to the west of the Australian latitudes and already ridging through southern Western Australia.  Another deep low in the far south of the Bight will move east.  A large cold pool in the middle levels associated with this deep low may be squeezed further north to affect the northern Bight area over the next day or so.

The trough located in Victoria will remain slow moving through Tuesday and may trigger isolated showers & possible storms mainly along the ranges, dependent on the moisture supply. The ridge from the high to the west of Australia will tend towards Tasmania, effectively cradling the trough over the southeast.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:Scattered showers with isolated storms, mainly about the ranges.
NSW:  Isolated storms in the south, depending on moisture availability.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the east coast with scattered showers & isolated storms about Cape York & the Gulf country.
NT: Scattered showers and storms over much of the Top End, becoming more frequent in the west.
WA:  Drizzle patches along the south coast clearing.  Scattered showers & isolated storms in the Kimberley region, extending westward.
SA:  Showers in the south, mainly along the coast, clearing from the west.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in the west and more frequently over higher ground.

Future Developments:  The high will move into the Tasman Sea & become slow moving, while the east coast ridge will remain, directing a southeasterly flow onto much of the east coast. This high will also extend a ridge to the west of Adelaide, which looks likely to create a new centre in the Bight. The area of convective activity in the Arafura Sea north of Darwin will continue to move west & direct tropical air onto the north of the continent triggering storm activity over the Top End. TC Dianne will continue to move SW & outflow in the upper levels will be caught up in the front crossing Western Australia. Infeed to the west of the continent is now from three distinct areas - the convective area in the Arafura Sea, outflow from TC Dianne & the convective area SW of Sumatra. Moisture levels over the western parts of Australia could be interesting to monitor for the next few days!

The trough located in central South Australia will continue to move towards Victoria during Monday and will extend its influence into the west of the state later in the day. An area of high cloud moving through New South Wales during Monday is not expected to produce rain. Temperatures & moisture levels over the southeast of the continent will begin to rise during Monday in the E- NE flow.

Potential Risks: A trough may linger over southeastern Australia for much of the week, triggering isolated storms along the ranges.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers in the west later in the day.
NSW:  Isolated showers on the coast, mainly in the north.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the east coast with storms possible over Cape York and the Gulf country.
NT: Scattered showers and storms over much of the Top End, becoming more frequent in the west.
WA:  Drizzle patches and showers along the southern coast, isolated storms in the east Kimberley.
SA:  Middle level showers and storms, moving east through Monday.  Little precipitation reaching the ground.
Tasmania: Mainly fine & warmer after early drizzle.

Future Developments:  The high in the Bight will weaken as it moves east but will continue to ridge along the east coast.  Isolated showers are likely along the central Queensland coast in the onshore flow. Equatorial moisture will continue flowing onto the northern Australian coast from the Arafura Sea & trigger showers & isolated storms.. A front is approaching southwest Western Australia and is likely to only affect the SW of the state.

The cold pool / upper low system looks likely to move southeast along the South Australian coast and continue weakening through Sunday. The high over the southeast of the continent will maintain dry conditions during Sunday except for isolated showers along the New South Wales north coast & the west coast of Tasmania.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Morning coastal drizzle, fine elsewhere.
NSW:  Isolated showers on the coast, mainly in the north.
Queensland: Isolated showers on the central coast & isolated storms over the north part of Cape York.
NT: Scattered showers and isolated storms over the Top End, mainly along the coast but increasing.
WA:  Isolated showers in the southeast, along the SW coast with the front and along the Kimberley coast.
SA:  Isolated showers & storms in the southwest, extending east wards in southern parts..
Tasmania: Isolated drizzle in the west and south.

See here: Vicstorms

The moisture plume that has been feeding across the NW coast of Western Australia continues & is now feeding into an area of positive vorticity associated with an upper cold pool (which marks the position of the upper trough) over the southeast of Western Australia.

Future Developments:  The high in the Bight will continue its slow strengthening as it moves slowly east ridging across Victoria and along the New South Wales during Friday. The trough which moved along the New South Wales coast during Thursday will reach SE Queensland during Friday & looks likely to trigger isolated storms over the coast & ranges. The low over the Coral Sea looks to move westward during Friday & help strengthen winds onto the northern tropical Queensland coast. 

An upper low is likely to form over the SE Western Australia / SW South Australia region during late Thursday / Friday.  The moisture plume should be enhanced by this & widespread rain is likely in the area.

Potential Risks: Moisture at all levels through the atmosphere over the area associated with the moisture plume has been increasing & may lead to widespread heavy falls in SE WA / SW SA during the early part of Friday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers south of the ranges.
NSW:  Isolated coastal showers clearing to the NE.
Queensland: Isolated showers in the southeast corner with isolated showers also along the northern tropical coast.
NT: Isolated showers in the northern part of the Top End. Showers in the southwest are possible.
WA:  Widespread rain areas in the southeast.  Isolated showers in the west Kimberley & associated with the cloudband.
SA: Rain areas in the southwest.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in the west and the south.

Future Developments:  The trough and front will move out of the state overnight and the high will ridge in behind it across southern Victoria and Bass Strait, directing SE - SW winds across Tasmania, Victoria and South Australia. The trough / front will move across southern and central New South Wales during Thursday, triggering showers and scattered storms. A plume of mid-level moisture from the Indian Ocean south of Indonesia looks to continue for the next day or so, feeding moisture into the trough / frontal system. The high will ridge strongly through the Bight to the south of Western Australia. The eastern part of the Australian continent , as well as the southern areas, is beginning to cool generally. 

Potential Risks: A large cold air field over the northern Bight and southern parts of Western Australia and South Australia, may trigger widespread shower activity later in the week.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers with isolated storms moving through the east and northeast, leaving widespread passing showers in the colder airstream.
NSW:  Scattered showers and storms associated with the trough & front mainly in the south.
Queensland: Isolated coastal showers in the east, decreasing.
NT: Isolated showers are possible along the Top End coast, with patchy rain from middle level cloud in the south.
WA:  Showers in the Pilbara & Kimberley areas. Drizzle on the south coast.
SA: Scattered showers, mainly in the south and southeast. Isolated storms in the east during Wednesday night.
Tasmania: Showers, falling as sleet on the higher areas during early Thursday.

Future Developments:  The high in the Tasman will weaken, while the high in the Bight will strengthen through Wednesday, leading to little or no change in pressure over the southeastern corner. The trough and front will cross Victoria during Wednesday, to be followed by the high ridging through southern Western Australia, South Australia & into the western parts of Victoria. The front is likely to have the greatest effect on Tasmania will temperatures falling with the cold SW winds to follow and a cold airfield to the west.

Potential Risks: Sleet in Tasmania on higher peaks following the front.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Patchy rain in the west, and isolated storms with the front east of ~145E.
NSW:  Isolated showers on the northeast coast, with isolated showers & a possible storm in the south as the front moves east.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the east coast & the northern part of Cape York.
NT: Isolated showers over the northeast Top End.
WA: Isolated showers along the southern coast, with showers continuing in the Pilbara, mainly near the coast.
SA: Showers in the south, mainly along the coast.
Tasmania: Showers tending to periods of rain, with the chance of sleet on the central plateau & higher peaks to the southwest.

Future Developments:  The high in the Tasman will move east towards New Zealand and weaken, although there will be little change in the ridging along the east coast during Tuesday.  The low in the Coral Sea will move west, but do little more than strengthen the onshore winds on the Queensland coast. A small upper low has formed to the west of Tasmania, and there is also an area of positive vorticity north of Esperance in Western Australia associated with the trough.  Cooler conditions are likely in southern WA as the trough in the southeast moves out of the state.

The trough and approaching front may give South Australia isolated showers, mainly in the southwest during Tuesday. The next high moving into the Bight will strengthen and ridge along the southern Western Australian coast and across southern South Australia into Victoria.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Fine after early fogs in the south.
NSW:  Isolated showers along the coast.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the coast.
NT: Isolated showers across the Top End and in the western Gulf country.
WA: Isolated showers & storms are likely to continue in the Kimberley & Pilbara regions. Showers along the south coast with the front.
SA: Scattered showers with the passage of the front.
Tasmania: Fine.

The trough in Western Australia has weakened and the moist infeed from the Indian Ocean to the front crossing the state has also weakened. The front is beginning to slide to the southeast.  The high southwest of Western Australia is unusually weak for its location in the Indian Ocean, but will strengthen as it moves into the Bight. A large cold air field is located to the far southwest of Western Australia.

Future Developments:  The high will restrengthen as it moves east into the Tasman Sea and send a broad ridge along the east coast as well as ridging strongly to the south. This is the dominant feature on a synoptic scale during Sunday. Lines of enhanced moisture moving from Papua may trigger showers across the far north of the Top End.

Potential Risks: Much of the country will experience fine weather through Monday. The area of convection in the Coral Sea should be monitored, but any development is likely to slide southeast.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Fine.
NSW:  Isolated showers along the coast.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the coast.
NT: Isolated showers along the northern coast.
WA: Isolated showers & storms are likely to continue in the Kimberley & Pilbara regions.
SA: Fine.
Tasmania: Fine.

March Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page

Victorian Weather Glass