|
June 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion
& Report Page
Victoria |
Date |
Name |
Information |
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July Forecast Outlook, Discussion
& Report page |
30 |
. |
Overview: A strong high
lies near Mt Gambier exerting its influence over much of the continent with clearing
conditions and moderating winds. A mature full depth low in the Tasman Sea is being
followed by this high, which is also ridging to the north and more strongly to the south
into the Bight. An upper level high also reflects the surface circulation. The
coldest air in the middle levels, responsible for the snowfalls over southeastern
Australia during the past 36-48 hours, has moved away. A front is crossing the
southwest of Western Australia with a stronger front to follow later Sunday / early
Monday. Discussion:
The high will move over eastern Australia during Sunday with a front following the narrow
ridge to the south, likely only to affect Tasmania later in the day. Cold air, advected
north by the low pressure system that passed over southeastern Australia, will help setup
conditions for widespread frosts through much of eastern Australia during Saturday night,
locally severe away from the coast. A cool southerly flow over the New South Wales
coast is likely to trigger isolated showers during Sunday. Snow flurries are less
likely during Sunday, and will become confined to the higher peaks and isolated.
Much of the continent will have clear conditions
during Sunday. The front moving east through Western Australia is showing signs of
weakening as it moves east.
Areas to watch: the South Island
of New Zealand looks to feel the effects of the deepening low pressure system heading for
their west coast during Sunday. Snow to low levels is likely, particularly in the
south.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle patches in the south clearing. Fine and cold
inland with widespread frosts, locally severe. Isolated showers falling as snow over
the higher peaks.
NSW: Isolated showers along the coast. Cold inland, with widespread
frosts, locally severe. Isolated showers along the ranges, falling as snow on the
peaks.
Queensland: Cold nights with widespread frosts along the ranges,
extending north. A mainly fine day throughout.
NT: Fine with only an isolated chance of cloud.
WA: Fine in the north. Scattered showers in the southwest, extending
east along the coast and becoming isolated.
SA: Fine after a cold night with widespread frosts.
Tasmania: A cold night with widespread frosts. Scattered showers mainly
in the west and south. |
29 |
. |
Overview: A
strengthening high occupies the Bight and directs an unstable south-southwesterly flow
over south-eastern Australia and assists in strengthening the northerly flow ahead of the
front approaching Western Australia. Tropical infeed into this system originates
from south of Indonesia. A low in the
central Tasman Sea is moving away from our longitudes and towards New Zealand. This full
depth system (with 850hPa temperatures of -1.5°C and 700hPa temperatures of -11.3°C from
the Melbourne sounding at 10am Friday) was responsible for widespread snow and sleet along
the ranges to ~500m through Tasmania, Victoria and into New South Wales. A weak trough
moved northeast through northern New South Wales and southern Queensland during Friday.
Discussion: During Saturday,
the high in the Bight will move over the southeastern states and strengthen, while the low
in the Tasman Sea will slow and deepen as it moves away, this should result in strong to
gale force southerly winds along the southern and central New South Wales coasts on
Saturday, but moderating winds inland. The front crossing the Western Australian
coast will slide to the southeast through the Bight. Cool to cold conditions
continuing through the southeast with scattered showers continuing with brief snow showers
at higher levels (ie: the Alps and higher parts of the New South Wales tablelands) and
along the coast in the southerly flow.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Local frosts in the north. Becoming generally milder later in
the weekend after scattered showers over the ranges and along the coast, falling as snow
at higher levels, particularly Friday night and early Saturday. Showers more
frequent in the east, clearing from the west.
NSW: Showers, mainly in the south along the coast and ranges, with snow
showers at higher levels, becoming more isolated through Saturday. Scattered storms
likely Friday night, mainly offshore. Strong winds along the coast, moderating into
Sunday.
Queensland: Mainly fine throughout with only isolated showers over
northern parts of Cape York and southeast. Becoming colder in the southeast of the
state with wintery showers over higher parts.
NT: Fine. There may be a patch of cloud near the northeast corner of the
Top End.
WA: Showers developing over the southwest corner and extending along the
southern coast during Saturday. Fine elsewhere.
SA: Fine conditions. Colder nights with widespread frost patches.
Tasmania: Showers in the west and south falling as snow over higher parts,
becoming less frequent through Saturday. Cold in the east. |
28 |
. |
Overview: A surface low
south of Tasmania (988hPa) this afternoon extends a front through Tasmania and west
central Victoria after widespread showers through the day over the southeastern states.
This is associated with a broad upper trough and extensive cold air field now located in
the eastern Bight. The main centre of high pressure (1030hPa) in our longitudes is located
in the western Bight and extends a ridge northeast through northern South Australia and
then through southern Queensland. To its east is a broad trough through the Tasman
Sea, and to its west is an approaching low at ~35°S. Discussion: Cold air will continue to be
advected northeast around the upper trough in the southern Bight and will cross Victoria
during Friday, lowering the snowline as the colder airfield becomes established. A front
moving through New South Wales will extend shower activity and colder southwesterly winds
north towards the Queensland border. Snow is likely on the ranges Thursday night and into
Friday, with some falls to lower levels, particularly early Friday. The high in the Bight
will strengthen as it moves east and the deep south-southwesterly wind flow will
restrengthen over the southern states before moderating later in the day and into the
weekend.
A northeasterly infeed of tropical air over the Top
End from a large but somewhat disorganised area of convection north of Papua - New Guinea
will help maintain partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers, but elsewhere north of
25°S should continue to experience mainly fine conditions. The weak low and front
approaching Western Australia should affect only the lower SW Land Division before sliding
away to the southeast.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Cold. Widespread showers, mainly on and south of the ranges,
falling as snow over higher levels, lowering into Friday. Small hail and isolated
storms in the south are possible. Mainly fine and cool in the north, with isolated
showers.
NSW: Strengthening winds ahead of the front, with colder southwesterly winds
following. Increasing showers, with snow on the Alps and possibly extending to the
Central Tablelands. Fine in the far northeast, but cooler conditions are expected.
Queensland: Cool conditions in the south with isolated showers along
Cape York. Fine inland with frost in the south.
NT: Fine with cloudy periods over the Top End, fine and sunny elsewhere.
WA: Scattered showers and isolated storms developing in the southwest later
Friday. Fine elsewhere.
SA: Cold south-southwesterly winds in the east of the state. Scattered
showers, with isolated hail becoming isolated. Fine in the west, with clearing
conditions under a northerly flow.
Tasmania: Cold. Widespread showers, particularly in the west, with isolated
storms, and snow possible down to lower levels during Friday. |
27 |
Clyve Herbert |
Just having a look at the sat pic about
1600, the cold pool looks as if it will move through Bass Strait and Victoria overnight
and Friday, the wave low west of Tasmania appears to be having a slingshot effect which is
good for Victoria, although there is plenty of cold air for Tasmania to enjoy on Friday,
but Vic may see a few flakes down to 400m between 0400 and 1200hrs Friday. There is a satellite low and associated cold pool just west
of Strachan (was not analysed on the 1600 chart!?) I think this will become absorbed into
a primary low to the southeast of Tasmania tonight,but the cold pool core seems to be
heading across Bass Strait and southern Vic, so you will find that your wind direction
should shift southwest or to the south overnight or tomorrow morning. There is a ridge
moving in from the west later Friday which will warm the upper layers by Sat..... |
27 |
. |
Overview: The baric
ridge is being shaped by the position of strong low pressure systems in the Australian
region at the moment. A low in the Tasman Sea is moving towards New Zealand. The
area of high pressure over the eastern part of the continent ridges to the southeast
through Tasmania while a satellite low of 978hPa near 50°S extends a front northwards
which is following closely behind the front which is connected to a deep low (956hPa) in
the Southern Ocean. These fronts are moving through the central Bight Wednesday
afternoon. A weak high located west of the continent is being forced south by a low
coming in from the Indian Ocean over the top of it. A trough and upper cold pool are
located over the north Tasman Sea with moist infeed extending to this system from
the tropics. Discussion: A
large area of significantly colder air located over the Bight during Wednesday will move
northeast around the broad trough during Thursday and begin to affect the southeastern
corner of the country tomorrow and into Friday as the fronts pass through our longitudes.
Showers falling as snow later Thursday and Friday to lower levels through the Alps
and along the ranges. Falls of snow may extend as far north as the New South Wales
Central Tablelands on Friday. Strong southwesterly winds to follow in the wake of
the fronts.
Most of the rest of the continent north of the
baric ridge will remain fine and mild, with cold nights, especially towards the weekend in
the east as the cold air from the Bight is advected north. The extensive trough over
the Tasman Sea will continue to move steadily east, clearing showers from the Queensland
coast..
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Strengthening winds during Wednesday night, showers increasing from
the southwest, tending to rain periods and spreading east during Thursday. Storms with the
likelihood of hail, especially in the south with sleet possible along higher parts of the
western ranges. Snow, with some heavy falls developing over the Alps.
NSW: Increasing winds ahead of fronts crossing the southern parts of the
state during the latter part of Thursday. Scattered showers, mainly in the south,
falling as snow over the Alps, while remaining mainly fine in the far north.
Queensland: Showers along the tropical northeast coast and northern
parts of Cape York. Mainly fine with cold nights in the south. Cooler conditions
developing towards the end of the week in the south.
NT: Cloud in the north. Fine throughout.
WA: Isolated showers in the far southeast, with showers also over the
southwest corner of the state in the moist unstable flow, clearing through Thursday.
Fine in the north.
SA: Fronts crossing the south of the state will bring widespread showers with
local hail in the south likely and strong winds. Mainly fine in the north,
conditions clearing in the west.
Tasmania: Strengthening winds and increasing shower activity in the west
Wednesday night tending to rain periods, becoming general throughout the state on
Thursday. Snow likely to low levels. |
26 |
David Jones |
My suscipion is that this could well be
quite an event, particularly further north (though mositure away from the coast could be
an issue)- I note that an interesting feature in the models is that the temperatures over
southern NSW on Friday morning are about the same as those over southern Tassie. These
translate in possible snow levels around 3-500m across the are, and probably locally
lower.
As a Melbournian the good southerly fetch with the cold air is the key for us. In many
cold outbreaks we get cheated by the flow not going south of west, and hence being too dry
to precipitate when freezing levels are at their lowest - May 2000, Aug 98, and June 93
are all examples. |
26 |
Clyve Herbert |
I have been checking the air mass due on
Thursday/Friday, with the core of cold air between Tasmania and Victoria, it's a little
early to be sure of trajectory but the thermal trough associated with this cold wave looks
significant and there is a possibility of snow to lower levels i.e 300m, things will be
clearer on Thursday. There also appears to be a reasonable rain band developing ahead of
this trough onThursday, especially for Victoria and Tasmania. |
26 |
. |
Overview: The baric
ridge weakened through Tuesday, while a front crossed the southeast corner of South
Australia, Victoria and Tasmania. At 4pm a small low of 991hPa was located just to
the southwest of Tasmania with a further wave low to the southeast of the state. Scattered
showers in the south with storms, mainly in Bass Strait accompanied the passage of the
front and following thermal trough, which dropped both surface and upper air temperatures
significantly across the southeast corner. The cold air field is currently pushing
northeast through southeast South Australia and New South Wales. Cross equatorial flow through the Arafura Sea has increased upper
moisture levels over the Top End and Cape York bringing isolated showers to the far north.
A weak trough lies through western Queensland.
Discussion: The weak
high over South Australia will move east through New South Wales during Wednesday, but not
regain its strength. The low near Tasmania will move into the southern Tasman Sea,
and the trough over Queensland will also move east to lie off the coast during
Wednesday. The cross equatorial flow will be maintained through Wednesday with
cloudy conditions (high cloud in the main) over the northern parts of the continent.
Much of the central and western parts of the
continent will remain fine with overnight frosts under the influence of both a surface
ridge and an upper high. The baric ridge to the west will shift slightly south and allow a
weak low to move through the Indian Ocean towards the southwest Western Australian coast
later in the week.
A front will enter the west of South Australia
later Wednesday and winds will once again strengthen with its approach particularly over
coastal areas of South Australia and Tasmania.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers south of the ranges, mainly along the coast and over the
Alps, falling as snow over the Alps. Mainly fine in the north, with winds easing later
Wednesday.
NSW: A cold unstable southwesterly flow over southeastern New South Wales
will see showers, falling as snow over the Alps, clearing later Wednesday. Strong winds,
especially in the lee (to the east) of the ranges will moderate as the high moves east.
Cold nights inland with frosts.
Queensland: Cooler air moving north into the south of the state.
Isolated showers over Cape York and the northeast tropical coast. Fine and cool with
southeasterly winds across much of the state.
NT: Increasing cloud over the Top End. Isolated showers mainly in the
northeast.
WA: Scattered showers over the SW Land Division with the passage of the front
- moving east along the coast through the day. Fine elsewhere.
SA: Cold nights with fogs and frosts. Mainly fine with a front
approaching the far west of the state late in the day bringing increasing cloudiness &
strengthening winds in the west.
Tasmania: Showers on Tuesday night, mainly in the west, falling as snow over
higher parts, clearing through Wednesday, and redeveloping later in the day in the
southwest.. Strengthening northwesterly winds. |
25 |
. |
Overview: The baric
ridge is still near to 30°S extending from the northern Tasman Sea to the Indian Ocean
with a centre over New South Wales. A rather complex family of satellite lows (980 and
981hPa) is located just to the southwest of Tasmania in the southern Bight. These centres
are moving through the northwest quadrant of a 954hPa low in the Southern Ocean. A
weak trough is located over the Top End and a large and rather strong area of convection
north of New Guinea has set up a cross-equatorial flow through the northern Coral Sea and
the Arafura Sea. Discussion:
The high pressure cells within the baric ridge will continue to migrate steadily east with
the centre over New South Wales moving off the coast and a centre becoming established
over Western Australia during Tuesday. Tasmania will be affected by a series of fronts
Tuesday with strengthening winds and increasing showery conditions over the southeastern
corner of the continent an effect of this system also. Colder air will be advected
northeast around this system, lowering snow levels over the Alps as it moves over
southeastern Australia. The trough extending northwest from these fronts can be traced
through southern Western Australia with middle level colder air to its southwest.
Northern parts of Cape York and the Top End are
likely to see increasing cloudiness with some showers, mainly over Cape York, as the moist
cross-equatorial flow penetrates further south, while most of the continent north of 30°S
will remain fine with light winds and overnight frosts.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of a front. Scattered
showers mainly south of the ranges with the chance of a storm, particularly in the
southwest. Snowfalls later over higher parts of the Alps.
NSW: Strengthening northwesterly winds. Showers increasing in the south later
Tuesday, with snow showers redeveloping at higher levels. Fine elsewhere.
Queensland: Showers over the northeast tropical coast and Cape York.
Cool in the south with inland frosts.
NT: Increasing cloud over the Top End, but mainly dry except for the chance of
isolated showers in the northeast.
WA: Fine in the north. Isolated showers over parts of the SW Land
Division, mainly in the south near to the coast, becoming less frequent.
SA: A front approaching the southeast of the state on Monday night will
strengthen winds and bring showers to the area. Showers clearing in the west, fine in the
north.
Tasmania: Strengthening northwesterly winds mainly in the west and north,
with showers, tending to rain near the front and isolated storms. |
24 |
. |
Overview: The weakening
baric ridge lies across the continent between 30°S and 35°S, with a general westerly
flow to its south with occasional embedded fronts / troughs. The low in the Southern Ocean
has deepened to 951hPa as is moves east. A weak upper trough moved through southeastern
Australia during Sunday with a small unanalysed cold pool moving northeast from the
southwest coast of Victoria during the afternoon. A persistent lee wave was anchored to
the southeast of the central plateau of Tasmania through the day. A weak cross-equatorial flow is in evidence affecting the Top End and
Cape York, with increasing upper cloud. A weakening baroclinic area is located over the
southwest of Western Australia on Sunday night. To its west, a front is approaching
the southwest corner of Western Australia.
Discussion: The development
of a satellite low in the western quadrant of the deep low in the Southern Ocean during
Monday is likely and this may be steered to the east northeast through the Bight. A deep
northwest-southwest flow will be maintained from at least another day or so below 40°S.
Isolated showers along the northeastern Queensland
coast and the northern parts of Cape York will continue through Monday with the rest of
the state remaining fine after cold nights. A patch of upper cloud over New South Wales
will not produce showers as it moves through the state. Scattered showers are likely over
the Alps, but the snow level will likely remain above 1500m during Monday as winds tend
more northwesterly.
The front approaching Western Australia will bring
scattered showers to the southwest corner of the continent through Monday.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers or drizzle along the southwest coast in
particular. Drizzle over the peaks. Winds tending northwesterly.
NSW: Isolated showers. Cool to mild days after a cold night with
isolated frosts inland.
Queensland: Scattered showers along the northeast coast and the northern
parts of Cape York. Fine elsewhere. Cool in the south with occasional frost.
NT: Mainly fine with increasing patches of cloud over parts of the Top End
with isolated showers in the northeast.
WA: Fine in the north and central areas. Increasing showers in the
southwest spreading east along the south coast.
SA: Isolated showers in the southeast. Mainly fine elsewhere. A
cold night inland with occasional frosts. Strengthening northwesterly winds.
Tasmania: Generally showery in the west and north, tending to periods of
rain. Scattered showers in the east. Strengthening northwesterly winds. |
23 |
. |
Overview: The baric
ridge continues to maintain its position along 30°S across the continent and the zonal
surface westerly flow to its south continues to influence the weather of southern
Australia with the passage of embedded fronts. An upper trough is currently moving across
the eastern Western Australia / western South Australia region, but is producing little in
the way of precipitation. A weak trough passed across Victoria during the day, affecting
mostly southern parts with occasional drizzle and showers along the ranges. The west coast
of Tasmania experienced showery conditions in the westerly flow. Discussion: During Sunday, pressures over the
eastern part of the continent will increase slightly as the high centred over South
Australia during Saturday moves slowly east near to 30°S. The zonal westerly flow
to its south will continue and a deep low (959hPa - 10am AEST) in the Southern Ocean
(south of Western Australia) extends a front northwards which will affect southern parts
of Australia during Sunday. Tasmania should see increasing winds to gale strength on the
west coast with increasingly showery conditions. The upper trough over South
Australia will move east, increasing cloudy conditions through Victoria but with little
precipitation expected.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers along the coast and over the Alps, falling as snow flurries
over higher parts. Cold inland with frosts. Cloud increasing from the west through
Sunday.
NSW: Mainly fine conditions with scattered showers on the southern highlands,
falling as snow flurries over the Alps. A cold night with frosts away from the
coast.
Queensland: Isolated showers over Cape York and the eastern coast
(except in the south). Mainly fine elsewhere. Cool to cold nights in the southeast
with isolated frosts.
NT: Mainly fine with cloudy periods in the northeast, but showers are not
likely.
WA: Fine except for isolated light showers from middle level could in the
Eucla and showers developing in the far southwest with the passage of a front.
SA: Mostly cloudy, but a few showers in the southwest, and drizzle in the
south on Saturday night. A cool day.
Tasmania: Winds increasing along the west coast. Showery conditions in
the west extending to central and northern parts. |
22 |
. |
Overview: The baric
ridge continues to lie across the continent near to 30°S. South of the continent, a
westerly flow with embedded fronts has become established. A wave low has developed to the
southwest of Tasmania in the eastern Bight region. The New Zealand 'bomb' has moved across
the country and is now located to the southeast of the South Island at 985hPa. The surface
trough near the Western Australian coast is still in evidence and remains slow moving. Discussion: The high will remain slow
moving with the dominant centre remaining over northern South Australia and ridging to the
west into the Indian Ocean. A zonal surface flow will continue to influence the southern
part of the continent for the weekend with showers particularly over exposed coasts, while
conditions throughout most of central Australia and the northern parts of the continent
will remain fine and mild with cold nights under the influence of the ridge of high
pressure.
The trough over southern parts of Western Australia
will move begin to move east during Saturday and will increase cloudiness in western parts
of South Australia late in the day.
Areas to watch: the broad area of
convection to the north of Fiji in the northern hemisphere which has been in evidence for
the past week is beginning to show signs of improved organisation.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers, mainly south of the ranges and especially along
the coast, as well as over the Alps falling as snow. Mainly fine in the north.
NSW: A southwesterly flow will become established over much of the state with
scattered showers on the ranges falling as snow over the Alps. Fine in the west.
Scattered frosts and fogs.
Queensland: Light showers over the northeast coast of Queensland will
continue in the moist southeast flow. Cool to cold nights inland with frost in the south.
NT: Possibility of isolated showers along the northern coast. Fine elsewhere.
WA: Light showers are likely in the SW Land Division extending in the
Goldfields associated with the trough as it crosses the coast and moves east.
SA: High cloud increasing in the west late in the day. Early fogs &
frosts, particularly in the southeast. Showers along the southwest exposed coastline
are likely to continue in the westerly flow.
Tasmania: Tasmania will see showery conditions through Saturday, mainly in
the west and north with snowfalls over higher levels. |
21 |
. |
Overview: The baric
ridge extends from Perth to Brisbane and is stronger to the west, with only a weak high
over eastern Australia. A series of fronts embedded in the westerly flow is passing to its
south and affecting the southern parts of the southeast of the country. A rapidly
deepening full-height low is located near to the northwest of the North Island of New
Zealand and is bringing gale force winds and rain mainly to the western parts of the
island during Thursday. The trough feeding tropical moisture into this area can be traced
back to Cape York, with a further westward extension over the Top End. Discussion: During Friday, the
baric ridge over Australia will weaken in the east and higher pressures will retreat
westward to be located over South Australia and Western Australia. Fronts embedded in the
westerly flow will continue to affect the southern parts of the country for the next few
days and cooler air will become generally established over the area. A weak surface
trough near the Western Australian coast may trigger showers as it moves inland.
The low in the New Zealand region will continue to
deepen and move southeast across the country during Friday, bringing gale force winds and
rain, heavy at times.
Things to watch: the New Zealand
'bomb' at MetVUW
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers, mainly along the coast and ranges, increasing as
a front crosses the state during Friday. Snow over the Alps, lowering to ~1400m. Cool
west-southwesterly winds.
NSW: Showers over windward slopes extending north along the ranges with the
passage of the front. Snow to ~1400m at times. Mainly fine in the north. Cool.
Queensland: Showers along the east coast in a moist onshore flow.
Isolated showers also likely over the north of Cape York. Patchy middle level cloud moving
into the south but little rain expected through Friday.
NT: Some high cloud over parts of the Top End. Fine throughout.
WA: Fine in the north. Isolated showers along and inland of the west
coast as the trough moves east.
SA: Showers in the south associated with the passage of a weak front through
Friday morning, decreasing through the day. Fine in the north
Tasmania: Generally showery conditions, particularly in the west, with snow at
higher levels, with the level decreasing with the passage of the front. A fresh to strong
westerly flow will become established across the state. |
20 |
. |
Overview: The weakening
high has remained slow moving over southeastern Australia during Wednesday, and continues
to ridge NW-SE. A very cold night with widespread frosts in the southeast was
followed by a mainly fine day, except for showers on the ranges, along the New South Wales
coast and in the southeast of Queensland. Winds have begun to strengthen during the
evening over the southwest of Victoria, the eastern Bight and western Tasmania as a front
approaches. The baric ridge extends from
Perth to the southeast of the continent, with a series of fronts approaching the southern
coastline to its south. To the north of the baric ridge, winds are light, and fine
conditions prevailed throughout today.
Discussion: A full-height
trough is deepening through the Coral and Tasman Seas and moving towards New Zealand. The
mid-level cold pool is still located to the west of this area near to the Queensland
coast, but will be absorbed into the general area of low pressure during Thursday as it
moves southeast. There is also strong tropical infeed into this system from near to New
Guinea, and the North Island should see substantial rainfall totals during the next day or
so.
Showers along the New South Wales coast will
continue in a moist southeasterly flow, while the front will cross the southeast of the
continent during Thursday, strengthening winds and triggering showers, with snowfalls over
higher elevations. Colder air will be advected across southeastern Australia behind this
front, and showery conditions are likely to be maintained for the next day or so.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers in the southwest during Wednesday night, extending east
through the day, mainly south of the ranges. Winds strengthening. Snow showers
over higher peaks.
NSW: Increasing cloud in the south. Strengthening winds ahead of a front
which will affect southern parts of the state mainly. Snow on higher parts of the
Alps. Showers along the coast becoming less frequent through Thursday. Clearing
showers in the northeast.
Queensland: Showers along the east coast, mainly over the northeast and
top of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine throughout.
WA: Mainly fine throughout with only isolated drizzle clearing in the far
southwest.
SA: Scattered showers in the south with the passage of the front. Winds
strengthening along the coast. Fine in the north.
Tasmania: Winds strengthening to gale force Wednesday night, particularly in
the west. Showers becoming more frequent and tending to rain periods, with snow over
higher parts. |
19 |
. |
Overview: The high is
located near to the west of Tasmania and extends a ridge through South Australia and then
Western Australia, with a broad upper ridge reflecting the surface pattern. South of this
ridge in the west, is passing an active trough and cold front associated with a
strengthening upper jet, a longwave trough with a surface low at 978hPa near to 50°S and
being followed by a broad thermal trough. Moist infeed originates from near to 10°S in
the Indian Ocean, to the southwest of Sumatra. A surface low in the northern Tasman Sea is connected to the low over
the South Island of New Zealand - these systems are associated with an upper longwave
trough extending from tropical Queensland to the southeast. An upper cold pool over
eastern Australia is triggering widespread showers and isolated storms along and near to
the central coast and northeast corner of New South Wales.
Discussion: During
Wednesday, the strengthening high will move to be over the southeastern corner of the
continent and ridge to the northwest to join up with the high moving into the west of the
country near to ~35°S. The low, currently to the south of Western Australia will be
steered southeast, and a strengthening northwesterly flow to gale force will be set up
over the eastern Bight, western Tasmania and possibly coastal South Australia. Only the
far southwestern corner of Western Australia will be affected by the thermal trough, which
will steer southeast through the Bight during Wednesday.
The cold pool over eastern Australia will move
northeast tomorrow and is likely to trigger showers and storms over the southeast corner
of Queensland and along southern parts of the central Queensland coast. Showers will
continue along the east coast in the moist onshore flow. Generally cold nights
inland through central and eastern Australia with widespread frosts and fog.
Areas to watch: The broad area of
strong convection to the northeast of Papua - New Guinea has maintained its identity, but
is currently lacking in organisation.
Gales developing over the central and eastern
Bight, Tasmania and possibly also coastal parts of South Australia between the ridge and
the cold front are likely. Rough seas with gales.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Mainly fine throughout, except for occasional snow on the peaks,
and showers developing in the southwest later. A cold to very clod night with widespread
frosts and fogs.
NSW: Showers, with scattered storms along the central and northern
coasts during Tuesday night, contracting north during Wednesday. Only isolated showers in
the south in the moist onshore flow. Isolated showers along the ranges in the south, with
snow falling at higher elevations. Fine west of the ranges.
Queensland: Coastal showers, with scattered storms along the southern
and south-central coast, also in the southeast corner. Isolated showers over the
northern parts of Cape York.
NT: Fine with isolated showers along the north coast of the Top End.
WA: Fine in the north. Showers lingering over the southwest corner behind the
front, becoming isolated. Fine elsewhere in the south.
SA: Patchy cloud developing later in the southwest. Mainly fine after a
cold night with widespread fogs & frosts in the north. Winds strengthening along the
coast.
Tasmania: Cold to very cold night with widespread frosts and fogs. Showers
developing in the west later Wednesday. Northwesterly winds possibly strengthening
to galeforce along the west coast later. |
18 |
. |
Overview: An area of low
pressure and a large middle level 'cool pool' is located over New South Wales and is
connected to the low in the Tasman, while a trough extends from the Tasman low to just off
the Queensland coast. The high following through Western Australia has ridged more
strongly to the southeast today with a centre of 1027hPa now located to the southwest of
Tasmania. A general area of low pressure associated with the longwave trough is
approaching southern Western Australia and has a tropical infeed originating from cross
equatorial flow in the upper levels over Sumatra. There is a large thermal trough
following the front. A returning cloudband
associated with the Tasman low has brought showers to parts of northeast Tasmania and
eastern Victoria, while temperatures over the Alps have been dropping steadily during the
afternoon. An arc of cloud over inland Queensland is associated with the jetstream and is
not producing precipitation.
Discussion: The trough and
cool pool over New South Wales will move northeast, increasing the likelihood of showers
with possible storms especially over the ranges in southeast Queensland. During Tuesday
the high will consolidate in the Bight, move steadily east and strengthen, while extending
ridges to the southeast and northwest. Strong southeast - southerly winds across Tasmania
will moderate with showers contracting to the southeast and the higher peaks and falling
as snow particularly on Monday night. Cold nights inland through most of southern
Australia with local fogs and frosts will be a feature of the next couple of nights, with
showers falling as snow on the Alps.
The low and front approaching southwest Western
Australia may be steered to the southeast by the high in the Bight, and will strengthen
winds over southern and western parts of the state during Tuesday. Scattered storms, some
possibly severe are likely in this strongly baroclinic zone associated with this front.
The high pressure system following is ridging in to our longitudes at near 35°S.
Areas to watch: a large area of
positive convection has developed to the northeast of Papua - New Guinea.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers along the coast and south of the ranges tonight,
particularly on windward parts of the coast, with showers falling as snow on the Alps. A
cold night inland with local frosts and widespread fogs. A mainly fine day to
follow.
NSW: Showers in the south and along the ranges, falling as snow over the
Alps. Coastal showers are likely in the southeasterly onshore flow, extending to the
central coast at times. Mainly fine west of the ranges.
Queensland: Scattered showers developing through Tuesday in the
southeast, with the chance of a storm. Showers continuing over Cape York with isolated
showers along the east coast.
NT: Mainly fine. Only a slight risk of isolated showers over the
northeast coast.
WA: Strengthening northerly winds ahead of a front approaching the SW Land
Division. Scattered showers and storms (some severe) are likely in the southwest,
with showers becoming less frequent to the east. Showers along the west coast to near
Geraldton with the front, contracting south. Continuing fine in the north.
SA: Mainly fine after widespread morning fogs, with frosts in the southeast.
Cloud increasing from the west during the day, but little if any rain.
Tasmania: Winds abating through Tuesday. Showers, falling as snow over
the higher parts Monday night and early Tuesday, contracting to the southeast. Cool
to cold conditions generally. |
17 |
. |
Overview: A complex area
of low pressure has moved slowly across the southeast corner of the continent and by
Sunday night extends from southeastern South Australia to the southern Tasman Sea.
Pressures today have risen above 1000hPa for the first time in nearly a week. The high to
the west of this system ridges to the southeast through the Bight and is followed by a
longwave trough and a low (~38°S) at the northern end of the trough. The surface trough
associated with the low in the Tasman Sea has continued to extend northwest and can now be
traced back to the Top End, where a surface low has been analysed in the middle of the dry
season (!). Widespread storms over the eastern part of Queensland and near to the coast
are also associated with this trough. Cross
equatorial flow from Indonesia is feeding moisture into the longwave trough approaching
Western Australia while near 90°E 60°S, and to the west of this system is a pair of lows
at 963 and 966hPa (0Z 16/6). These lows and a large cold air field are associated with the
next longwave trough due to affect Australia towards the middle of the week.
The cold pool that was located in the head of the
Bight during Saturday has virtually remained stationary near to Ceduna for more than 24
hours, while further east, under the influence of the broad trough, scattered showers and
isolated storms were reported in Victoria and southern New South Wales with some heavy
falls from slow moving cells.
Discussion: During Monday
the broad area of low pressure will move east into the Tasman Sea, and together with the
high over Western Australia ridging to the southeast and the northeast, will freshen the
southeast - southerly flow across the southeastern states (ie: South Australia, Victoria
& Tasmania as well as the southern parts of New South Wales) bringing scattered
showers along and near to the coasts.
The extensive trough associated with this low will
continue to move east and be located off the coast of Queensland while the area of
convection currently near to Papua is moving southwest and may help to intensify showers
along the northeast coast.
The low and cold front approaching the SW corner of
Western Australia will trigger showers later in the day, with another front to follow on
Tuesday.
The cold pool over the head of the Bight is likely
to move towards the Tasman Sea during Monday. Conditions over central regions of the
continent will become mainly fine for a day or so under the influence of this high.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Widespread heavy fog in the south central area, a cool to cold
night inland. Scattered showers along the eastern ranges, falling as snow over the
Alps. Scattered showers with the risk of isolated storms south of the ranges. Chance of
heavy falls mainly in Gippsland.
NSW: Scattered showers in the south of the state, falling as snow on the
Alps. Colder south - southwesterly winds becoming established through the south of the
state. Mainly dry in the north
Queensland: A cool southwesterly flow will become established over much of
the southern parts of the state. Scattered showers along the northeast coast.
NT: Mainly fine except for showers over the northeast Top End.
WA: Fine in the north with scattered showers developing in the southwest
later in the day, winds strengthening and maintaining showers along the southern coast.
SA: Mainly fine, with scattered showers along the coast, more frequent in the
southeast corner.
Tasmania: Showery in the south and east in a strengthening southeasterly
flow. Some heavy falls. Snow developing over higher parts. Mainly fine in the
northwest after morning fogs. |
16 |
. |
Overview: The complex
low pressure area that has taken up residence over the northern part of the Bight (both at
the surface as well as the middle levels) close to the Australian coast and is affecting a
large proportion of central and eastern Australia. The high to the west of Western
Australia ridges towards the high in the south of the Bight, which in turn ridges to the
northeast, effectively cradling the lows, and slowing their eastward progress. In
addition, a cloudband (part of which is returning at least once) is wrapping in beneath
the low. Fronts have crossed the southern parts of Australia, and along with a trough
through western parts of New South Wales and Queensland triggering showers and isolated
storms during Saturday. Discussion: A
broad area of low pressure at the surface and in the middle and upper levels will continue
to dominate southern Australia during Sunday. Pressures will remain low, remaining
at or below 1000hPa for the 5th day in a row! The low pressure centres will continue to
move in a generally easterly direction with fronts rotating through the eastern quadrants
of the lows. The wraparound cloudband looks also to continue during Sunday and may trigger
heavy falls, especially upon making landfall. The combination of highs moving
through the western parts of the Bight, and to the south of the Bight, continues to cradle
the lows. These highs are likely to strengthen through Sunday as they move towards South
Australia and should provide a Western Australia with a brief respite from the rain, wind
and storms that have been experienced during the past few days, before the next longwave
trough and low pressure system at ~30-35°S moves near to the southwest coast.
A trough will continue to lie through New South
Wales and Queensland extending to near the Barkly Tableland. Showers are likely as this
trough moves east towards the coast with isolated showers also likely along the tropical
coasts.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers with occasional storms during Saturday night and
Sunday, extending east. Some heavy falls are possible, especially in the east and
northeast of the state. Snowfalls over higher parts.
NSW: Showers in the south and extending north to central areas
particularly along the Tablelands. Snow over higher parts.
Queensland: Showers associated with the trough moving east to be near the
coast during Sunday night. Isolated showers over tropical coasts with scattered
showers and isolated storms in the southeast corner.
NT: Mainly fine with the exception of showers about the northeast coast of the
Top End.
WA: Winds abating through Sunday, except for the Eucla. Showers along the
south coast, becoming isolated through Sunday. Widespread fogs with some frosts in
the south away from the coast.
SA: Showers and scattered storms through Saturday night and Sunday, clearing
from the west Sunday. Mainly fine in the north.
Tasmania: Showers in the east and south tending to rain periods Sunday and
early in the week, heavy at times. Showers elsewhere.
Potential risks: There is
potential for heavy falls later Sunday and early in the week, especially in the northeast
and east of Victoria and over Tasmania associated with the returning cloudbands associated
with the complex low pressure. |
15 |
. |
Overview: The lows in
the Bight have amalgamated during Friday and a broad area of low pressure extends from
south of SW Western Australia along ~ latitude 40°S to the South Island of New Zealand.
Pressures through this area have remained at less than 1000hPa for a protracted
period. The high over Antarctica has continued to ridge north into the southern part
of the Bight and is keeping the lows close to southern Australia. The high
approaching the west coast ridges to its southeast and, with the Southern Ocean high, has
cut the Bight lows off. A front is crossing South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania
during Friday night. The low near to Western
Australia is analysed from the surface to the tropopause, and is beginning to drag air up
from due south around it. The tropical infeed from the Indian Ocean into this system has
weakened through Friday, but there is a further moisture plume developing to its south.
In the north, a weak upper trough extends from Cape
York southeast of New Caledonia, while in the northwest, a weak surge of cross equatorial
air can be identified by the location of a line of upper cloud off the northwest coast.
Discussion: During Saturday,
the low in the Bight will move generally east, but only rather slowly. The associated
front will cross New South Wales during Saturday, but there will be little if any change
in wind direction, which is likely to remain from the northwest. Rather unusually, the
front will cross Tasmania from the north to the south, not from the west to the east. The
high to the west of the continent will continue to ridge to the southeast and then to the
northeast, ahead of the low, cradling the area of low pressure. Cooler air from the
south will wrap around this low as it moves slowly east, helping destabilise conditions.
Thickening high and middle level cloud will cover
most of New South Wales during Saturday and with the upper level jet strengthening
over the state will be sheared away over the northern Tasman Sea. A returning
cloudband is developing near Tasmania and beginning to feed into the circulation over the
Bight. This may affect Tasmania during Saturday, giving periods of rain.
To the west, the developing moisture plume in the
Indian Ocean near to 20°S looks most likely to be captured by the next approaching low
early in the new week rather than the system currently in our latitudes.
New Zealand note: Snow is expected
to low levels over the central and southern parts of the South Island Friday night and
Saturday morning.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers with isolated storms in the west during Friday night
clearing briefly, then showers redeveloping and becoming scattered across much of the
state. Isolated storms possible. Snow showers over higher parts of the alps.
NSW: A front will cross the state during Saturday with winds remaining
northwesterly, fresh to strong over higher parts. Scattered showers throughout, becoming
isolated later, falling as snow over higher parts.
Queensland: Mainly dry throughout with widespread fogs mainly in the southeast
corner. Isolated showers over the northern parts of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine except for isolated showers about the northeast. Some
high cloud in the northwest, with cloudy periods in the south.
WA: Cold, windy, strong to gale force at times from the south with isolated
storms and the likelihood of hail, mainly in the southwest tonight and then contracting
east along the south coast Saturday. Fine in the north, becoming cooler in the central
regions.
SA: Northwesterly winds strengthening from the west and turning colder
southwesterly. Widespread showers in the south with isolated storms, mainly over the
Bight. Dry in the north.
Tasmania: Showers developing in the north and west and extending south and
east. Isolated storms possible. The chance of rain periods in the east. |
14 |
. |
Overview: A weak high
remains near the South Australia / Northern Territory border as part of the baric ridge
lying along ~30°S. This is one factor enabling the lows to be further north than
during the past weeks, with a series of fronts affecting much of southern Australia.
A large high near to Antarctica, which is keeping these lows to its north, also sends a
ridge northward through the Bight separating the low near Tasmania from the low to the
south of Western Australia. A front is crossing Western Australia and this
deep low is dragging moisture in from the tropical Indian Ocean. Both lows have moved slowly east, and the low near Tasmania (along
with a couple of unanalysed smaller 'satellite' lows in the eastern Bight) has kept
pressures at many locations through southeastern Australia in the 980 - 999hPa range.
They are expected to remain low for the next few days.
Discussion: The lows will
move east during Friday with the Tasmanian low moving towards the South Island of New
Zealand and deepening. A front will cross South Australia and Victoria during Friday,
while the band of low pressure will cover much of the Bight and affect most of southern
Australia during Friday and into the weekend. A slight warming in the middle levels
is associated with the weak ridge moving through to the east during Friday preceding the
front.
The high following this full depth low pressure
system south of Western Australia will ridge to the south / southeast and help maintain
the cutoff low, while the high south of the Bight is likely to edge northwards, keeping
surface pressures low for at least the next 48 hours..
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Cloud increasing with scattered showers becoming more widespread
through Friday. Strengthening northwesterly winds. Isolated storms with the chance of hail
in the south and Gippsland are possible, mainly Thursday.
NSW: Cool conditions with strengthening westerly winds. Showers in
the south and along the Central Tablelands falling as snow on higher peaks later Friday or
Saturday.
Queensland: Mainly fine with the exception of isolated showers over northern
parts of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine with isolated showers over the northeast of the Top End.
WA: Strong to gale force SW winds over the southern parts of the SW Land
Division. Scattered showers with isolated heavy falls & hail & thunder are
likely to continue into Friday. Scattered showers along the southern coast. Mainly
fine elsewhere except for isolated light showers associated with the cloudband over the
Central West, Goldfields and Eucla.
SA: Showers, becoming widespread with isolated storms in the south through
Friday. Winds shifting colder westerly with the passage of the front.
Tasmania: Mainly fine Thursday night with scattered showers developing
in the north and west later Friday. |
13 |
Clyve Herbert |
A rather interesting synoptic set-up over
Australia with the southern ocean belt of low pressure 'piggy backing over a strengthening
high at almost 60 south., which has displaced low pressure systems northward and closer to
the Australian mainland.It will be interesting to see how low pressure will get over
southeast Aus over the next several days. |
13 |
. |
Overview: A complex
family of lows has developed to the west of Tasmania, rapidly deepening the trough passing
over the southeast corner of Australia during Wednesday. Widespread storms with hail
to 3.5cm were reported from central and southern Victoria during the afternoon after
isolated storms in the southeast corner of South Australia and southwest Victoria during
the morning. Late this afternoon the trough and front are located over Tasmania, central
Victoria, and extending into southwestern New South Wales, with signs of vorticity in
southern Victoria. The baric ridge has
weakened and remains near to and north of ~30°S from north of New Zealand to the coast of
Western Australia. Another deep low (981hPa) near to 45°S to the southwest of
Western Australia is associated with a long wave trough. A weak centre of high pressure
over Western Australia ridges south into the Bight. A cross equatorial flow over Indonesia
is feeding moisture into the long wave trough to our west.
Discussion: The lows in the
Bight will continue to track steadily east while maintaining their latitude separated by a
ridge from the high moving across northern South Australia. Fronts will cross New South
Wales bringing rain, with snow at higher levels (of Victoria also) as a colder airfield is
driven up from the southwest, and Western Australia during Thursday which will bring rain
to the SW Land Division as well as along the coast near to Geraldton as the tropical
infeed crosses the coast.
A tropical infeed from north of Timor is bringing
moisture towards the Top End and may trigger only isolated showers. The cross equatorial
flow feeding into the longwave trough in the Western Australian area will continue to feed
strongly into this region through Thursday, triggering possible heavy falls in the
southwest corner. Mid and upper level cloud moving east across the continent is
likely to produce only isolated showers
The high moving into our area later Thursday and
into Friday is likely to ridge to the southeast, and may cut the approaching low off from
the westerlies to the south as it moves through the Bight.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Widespread showers, mainly on and south of the ranges, falling as
snow at higher levels. Strong to gale force winds particularly over the coast and
ranges. Isolated storms with hail in the south.
NSW: Showers becoming more frequent over much of the eastern part of the
state (except the north) with snow over the alpine areas, strong winds moderating behind
the front. Isolated storms with hail possible over the Southern and Central Tablelands.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the northern parts of Cape York. Fine
elsewhere with cool nights.
NT: Fine except for the chance of a shower over the Top End coast.
WA: Fine in the north. Showers with isolated storms in the southwest, showers
along the central west coast.
SA: Isolated showers along the south coast, clearing from the west before
redeveloping ahead of the next front. Scattered showers continuing in the southeast.
Tasmania: Widespread showers, tending to rain periods, with snow at
higher levels and possible hail in the south. Isolated storms, mainly in the north
and west. |
12 |
Clyve Herbert (2100) |
The cold pool over western Victoria is
showing signs of a transitory vorticity area, seems to be moving over southern Victoria. |
12 |
. |
Overview: The baric
ridge has continued to weaken over the last day or so and has maintained its position near
to 30°S with a general westerly flow setting up to its south and north of the band of
lows near to 50°S. Another in the series of fronts is approaching the southeast corner of
the continent. A slow moving deep low (~956hPa) southwest of New Zealand is directing a
moist onshore flow across the west coast of the South Is with heavy rain and
thunderstorms. The mid and upper level cloud
through the Bight marks a strengthening of the jet and precedes the front. The area
of upper cloud over southern Queensland is not active, while the weak upper trough
continues to move northeast along the Western Australian coast near to 15°S bringing in
moisture originating from tropical activity over eastern parts of Indonesia.
Discussion: The baric ridge
will continue to weaken through Wednesday and maintain its position near to and north of
30°S. A front will cross the southeastern states late Tuesday / Wednesday
restrengthening the northwesterly winds and bringing widespread showers to much of the
southeast with occasional snow on the peaks. Mainly fine conditions in the central
and northern parts of the continent will be maintained under the influence of the broad
high pressure ridge.
The weak upper trough over the northwest will
continue to move slowly eastward along the coast, allowing some moisture to feed into
northern parts of the Territory, but only isolated showers are likely over the northeast
of the Top End. Occasional showers are also likely over the northern part of Cape York,
with the rest of the eastern coast of Queensland remaining dry.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Strengthening northwesterly winds Tuesday night becoming gale force
at times along the coast and ranges. Showers tending to rain with snow on the higher
peaks, lowering later in the day.
NSW: Showers becoming more frequent in the south, and then extending
through to central parts, falling as snow in the alpine areas later in the day. Winds
strengthening. Cool in southern and central areas, becoming colder with the passage of the
front. Fine in the north.
Queensland: Isolated showers over northern parts of Cape York. Mainly
fine elsewhere..
NT: Fine throughout with the chance of a shower over the northeast of the Top
End.
WA: Isolated showers over the southwest corner of the SW Land Division.
Becoming colder in the south.
SA: Mild at first with gusty winds increasing and isolated showers developing
in the west Tuesday night and extending east early Wednesday and becoming more frequent,
before clearing later.
Tasmania: Strengthening northwesterly winds with showers in the north
and west becoming widespread throughout. Hail and isolated storms likely in the north. |
11 |
. |
Overview: The high over
northern parts of South Australia remains slooow moving and while maintaining its
latitude, is allowing a series of fronts to affect southern parts of the continent. Ridges
extend to the west and the east (baric ridge is ~30°S). The low in the Southern Ocean
also remains rather slow moving and is holding its central pressure at ~950hPa - cold
fronts are moving around this system and affecting southern Australia. A deep unstable
W-SW flow across southern Australia is triggering showers, mainly in coastal areas. Upper cloud along the NW coast of Western Australia marks
the presence of an upper trough. A front is approaching the SW corner of Western
Australia associated with a low that is sourcing part of its moisture from the
tropics southwest of Sumatra.
Discussion: The high will
edge steadily east-northeast through Tuesday while strengthening a ridge to the west. The
infeed from the Indian Ocean may split, with part of the band heading northeast across the
continent with the jet and part feeding into the low and frontal system moving through the
Bight during Tuesday. Tasmania will continue to be affected by the cold pool associated
with the low moving south of the state towards New Zealand for at least the next 24 hours,
while showers over the southeast of the Australian continent will become generally less
widespread over the next day or so, but with a reintensification of shower activity as
embedded fronts and waves move through.
Conditions generally will become milder during the
next few days over southern Australia with winds tending more northwesterly as the high
moves slowly eastward.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers, more frequent on and south of the ranges. Strong to
gale force winds continuing along the coast & on the ranges.
NSW: Isolated showers over southern parts. Cool conditions throughout,
with strong winds in alpine areas.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the northeast coast. Fine and cool
elsewhere. Light winds.
NT: Fine except for isolated showers about the NE Top End coast. Partly
cloudy in the south but remaining dry.
WA: Scattered showers in the southwest, mainly along the coast with the
passage of the front.
SA: Remaining mainly fine except for isolated showers or drizzle along the
south coast and in the southeast of the state.
Tasmania: Showers continuing in the west and south through Tuesday,
falling as snow at higher levels. Showers more frequent in the southwest with
possible hail & isolated storms. Cool to cold throughout. |
10 |
. |
Overview: A high located
near to 30°S over South Australia extends broad ridges east and west. The trough and
front which affected eastern Australian over the past few days are now over the Tasman
Sea, with a weak trough remnant remaining over Cape York. The southeast of the
continent is under the influence of a west-southwesterly flow bringing isolated stream
showers. A mid level cool pool continues to wander northeast along the Great Divide
in southern and central New South Wales. A deep low (950hPa at 4pmAEST) is located south
of the Bight and moving east while a complex low ~40°S (996 - 1000hPa) is deepening
as it moves east-southeast. Upper and mid level cloud over North West Cape is associated
with an upper trough just off the coast. Discussion: The
high over South Australia will remain slow moving through Monday, maintaining the baric
ridge near to 30°S and allowing fronts to affect the southeastern states. A strengthening
W-SW unstable flow will be maintained through the early part of the week, particularly
over alpine New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Much of the rest of the continent will
experience mainly fine conditions with cool nights and light winds.
A front will cross the SW corner of Western
Australia later Monday / Tuesday while the front crossing the southeast of the country on
Monday is likely to retrigger further snowfalls at higher levels with the southern states
seeing an increase in the frequency of showers during much of the day.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers throughout, strong to gale force (particularly in alpine
areas and along the coast) NW winds turning W-SW through the day. Snow showers remain
likely at higher levels.
NSW: Showers along the southern ranges, falling as snow at higher levels
in the alps. Cool W-SW flow.
Queensland: Coastal showers along the northeast coast and northern parts of
Cape York. Fine elsewhere. Cool in the south.
NT: Fine except for isolated showers over the northeast corner of the Top End.
WA: Isolated showers over the coastal Pilbara and western Gascoyne, drizzle
along the southwest coast., becoming showery over the SW as the front crosses the area
SA: Scattered showers along the southern and southeast coasts.
Strengthening winds, mainly in the southeast.
Tasmania: Strong to gale force winds over the state. Showers in the
west becoming widespread tonight and more frequent and falling as snow at high levels.
Isolated storms with hail possible. |
9 |
Nick Sykes |
After the passage of
Monday's front it looks like Victoria will remain in a winter set-up, with the highs
remaining to our north and the Southern Ocean lows influencing us. The models have Tuesday
as been a bit of a lull day, in between fronts with not a lot happening. The winds will
start to swing more to the NW as the next frontal system in the sequence approaches.
Showers will continue on the exposed coast of SW Victoria.
This next front is expected to move
through during Wednesday. At this stage it looks likely to be more active than the front
due on Monday. The Air mass associated with it looks to be quite cold, thicknesses are
expected to drop below 540. But as the last front has shown, thicknesses aren't
everything, if the moisture is not present, not a lot will happen. This front looks to
have more moisture associated with it, but like the last few fronts, it looks like wind
direction will play the pivotal role in where the rain will fall. Again areas facing the
strong westerly airstream will score the heavier rain, so the SW coast and South Gippsland
will have the best falls (especially the SW where it looks likely the front will peak).
Longer term it looks like Victoria
will remain under a similar pattern, with westerly winds continuing, and periodic
fronts. |
9 |
. |
Overview: The high in
the northern Tasman Sea has moved steadily east for the past day or so. A family of
deep lows is located in the Southern Ocean with fronts extending through the Bight to
southern Australia. A weak trough lies west of the ranges in Queensland while a
front with a clearly defined clearing edge (which helps in locating both the upper jet -
300hPa / ~30,000' - as well as a strong thermal contrast at 850hPa - ~5,000') moves
through northeastern New South Wales. The baric ridge lies near to the 30°S parallel over
the west of the continent. An upper trough off the coast of Western Australia near to
22°S, and a strengthening upper jet are indicated by the cloudband crossing the coast.Discussion: The
surface high ridging through the west of the continent will continue building through
Sunday under an upper high, while remaining near to 30°S - this will allow fronts to
affect southern parts of eastern Australia. The complex area of low pressure at ~40 -
45°S over the Indian Ocean just to the west of Australia looks likely to remain at this
latitude if not move slightly to the northeast. The upper infeed band over the northwest
coast of Western Australia will remain over this area into the early part of the week.
Isolated light showers in the coastal Pilbara are likely to continue. The front and trough over the eastern states on Saturday
will move off the coast during Sunday and a cooler northwesterly - southwesterly airflow
will become established. Stream showers are likely over southern parts of South
Australia, Victoria and Tasmania with coastal showers in Queensland. The cool pool over
Victoria during Saturday looks to move northeast into New South Wales, and may trigger
showers near the ranges.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers with possible thunder on and south of the ranges.
Snow at higher levels.
NSW: Showers along the ranges, falling as snow over the Alps. Showers
over the far northeast becoming isolated. A cooler NW-SW flow over the state.
Queensland: Scattered coastal showers over the central and northeast coasts.
NT: Fine.
WA: Isolated showers possible over the Pilbara, drizzle patches in the
southwest, clearing.
SA: Scattered showers along the southern coast. Mainly fine in the
north.
Tasmania: Scattered showers, falling as snow, then clearing through the
day. Shower activity redeveloping later Sunday. |
7 |
Clyve Herbert |
The energetic sub tropical jet seems to
have paved the way for what appears to be more rain on the north west coast of West
Australia between Exmouth and Port Hedland. Although this baroclinic band is not all that
wide there seems to be a core of mid and upper ascent just coming onto the coast. |
. |
. |
Australian
satellite images from 4th to 8th June |
7 |
. |
Overview: The high in
the northern Tasman Sea with ridges to the east, south and west, is trapped between two
longwave troughs and is also under a rather strong upper high. An intense low
(958hPa), which moved rapidly southeast from Western Australia today is located in the
southern Bight, with a large cold pool moving northeast around the surface circulation.
The upper low remains off the coast of Queensland with a strengthening southeasterly jet
on its west side, extending into the tropics. The upper cloudband from the Indian Ocean to
the frontal cloudband over Victoria and South Australia marks the location of the
strengthening subtropical jet and the leading edge of the approaching longwave trough but
is producing only scattered light showers. Discussion: After
a mild interlude, one feature of interest for Friday and the weekend will be the movement
of the cold pool in the Bight. Likely to move northeast steered by the upper jet,
and, with a wave low likely to form west of Tasmania during Friday with a front crossing
the southeast corner further complicating the setup, the southeastern states are likely to
see hail and some snow falls to low levels during late Friday and the weekend. Colder air
in the middle levels will destabilise conditions with scattered showers to follow later in
the weekend.
The next high will ridge in at ~30-35°S and will
bring a brief return to settled conditions to the west before a deepening trough off the
west coast. The high in the north Tasman Sea will remain slow moving during Friday
with showers likely along the Queensland coast. Scattered storms remain likely while
the upper trough remains just off the coast.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Cold air showers developing in the west during Friday and becoming
widespread across the state later with the chance of hail & storms, mainly in the
south. Sleet and snow developing at higher levels later in the day and through the
weekend.
NSW: Mainly fine along the north coast with increasing cloud from the
west and scattered showers in the south, becoming more widespread. Sleet and snow
showers are likely on the Alps during Friday night / Saturday. Becoming colder.
Queensland: Showers along the tropical coast, with isolated storms in the
north. Increasing cloud in the south and southwest with showers developing - mainly dry
elsewhere with cold nights inland, especially along the ranges.
NT: Fine.
WA: Showers in the south becoming confined to the coast.
SA: Becoming fine for a short while, before the development of scattered cold
air showers with isolated storms in the south and possible hail.
Tasmania: Showers in the west overnight, clearing, then redeveloping
during Friday and becoming more widespread with isolated storms. Conditions becoming
colder with snow on higher parts during Saturday, possible extending to lower levels. |
6 |
Clyve Herbert |
A nice looking cold pool over the western
Australian Bight area starting to rotate around the deep low to the south, some impressive
cold air CBs embedded, should see a period of colder weather over the Tasmanian and
southeast Aus area over the next few days, also a rather prominent 'lee high' cirrus band
extending from central Vic to the Southern Tablelands shows up well on the morning sat
pic. |
6 |
. |
Overview: A weakening
high straddles the New South Wales coast ridging to the east across the Tasman Sea, and
also to the northwest through the Northern Territory. A weak trough lies over the northern
Coral Sea, while another is located near to Port Hedland - 127mm has been recorded there
(24hrs to 9am). A much broader trough lies through much of the western part of
Australia (west of ~135°E) with a series of fronts embedded within it - the first front
is approaching the South Australian border in the west and the second moving across the
southwest tip of Western Australia. Thickening upper level cloud covers much of the
southeastern states. Discussion: During
Thursday, the high will move over the northern Tasman Sea, and strengthen a ridge to the
south east of Tasmania - this should help to slow the eastward movement of the approaching
trough. The baric ridge is shifting north and will extend from Shark Bay in the west,
through southern parts of the Northern Territory and northern New South Wales - this
northward shift will allow the fronts to also extend their influence further north. The
first front will cross South Australia and cyclogenesis in the Bight is likely to the west
of Tasmania as well as in the western Bight area. The second front will increase
shower activity over the southwest of Western Australia during Thursday with isolated
storms possible.
The upper low over eastern Queensland will cross
the coast into the Coral Sea, and showers in the southeast of the state and along the
coast should become less frequent, although isolated showers may persist in the moist
easterly flow.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Cloud increasing across the state Thursday with showers tending to
patchy rain in the west, becoming general across the state later in the day.
N-NW winds increasing.
NSW: Mainly fine with increasing cloud in the southwest of the state,
but only isolated showers later in the day are possible. A cold night inland with
fogs, and frost over higher parts.
Queensland: Mainly fine except for showers along the central and southern
coasts and the southeast corner. A cool night in much of the northern inland.
NT: Fine.
WA: Scattered showers with some areas of patchy rain continuing through the
Pilbara & extending to the Goldfields and the Eucla. Scattered convective showers in
the southwest and along the west coast (mainly south of ~27°S), becoming more frequent
with the passage of the next front. Isolated storms possible, but mainly in the south and
off the coast.
SA: Showers increasing to patchy rain in the west on Wednesday night becoming
more frequent through much of the south of the state. Isolated storms are possible,
mainly over the Bight.
Tasmania: Showers in the west and northwest, becoming more general
throughout the state later Thursday and during Friday. |
5 |
Clyve Herbert |
There seems to be a change developing in
the pattern across south east Aus over the next day or two as the long wave trough finally
replaces the current high ......with a bit of luck may be even cold enough for a flake or
two down to 600m. |
5 |
. |
Overview: A deepening
low passing just south of Western Australia extends a front as far north as 20°S with
widespread showers & isolated storms. Rain has fallen in parts of the Pilbara that
have not seen appreciable rain for months. Two separate infeed bands from the Indian Ocean
are providing significant amounts of atmospheric moisture and the high approaching Western
Australia is ridging to the southeast, helping to keep the low moving east rather than
southeast. The high over New South Wales is beginning to weaken as it moves in a
generally easterly direction. An interesting area of lower pressure is currently located
over the northeastern Coral Sea - unusual for June. Discussion: The now weakening high over New
South Wales will continue to move east-northeast towards the north Tasman Sea through
Wednesday, while the upper low over eastern central Queensland will begin to move east and
weaken. This surface high will continue to affect much of New South Wales and Victorian
weather through Wednesday, with cold nights and widespread frosts over higher inland parts
and unseasonally mild days. Across South Australia, warm air in the middle levels will be
advected southeast ahead of the longwave trough and associated lows, and the trend
of mild days after cold nights will continue for the next 24 hours or so.
The full-depth low south of Western Australia will
move in a generally east - southeasterly direction and continue to deepen at the surface
through Wednesday - the strength and direction of the ridge from the high to the west will
determine this low's movement. The large thermal trough following at 500hPa
(~18,500') will continue to trigger widespread showers and storms in the unstable
air. Significantly colder air in the middle levels, resulting in increased
instability, is being advected well northwards around the western side of the low by the
upper jet. This cold air will move east during the next few days with the longwave
trough and cross the southeast corner towards the end of this week, resulting in increased
instability and widespread cold conditions, with snow falling to possibly quite low
levels.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Cold nights with frosts, some severe in the northeast of the state.
A mainly fine day with increasing cloud in the middle levels.
NSW: Coastal showers along the north coast. Frost in the highland areas
overnight.
Queensland: Showers, widespread over the central coast & adjacent
hinterland, and more scattered in the southeast corner, contracting to the coast later
Wednesday. Frosts likely over higher parts.
NT: Mainly fine.
WA: Widespread showers with scattered storms, and some locally heavy falls,
over much of the south of the state and extending as far north as the Pilbara. Convective
showers and storms following behind the main cloudband.
SA: Increasing cloud through Wednesday with isolated showers in the
southwest, spreading east. Isolated storms over the Bight.
Tasmania: Mild days after cool nights with valley fogs. Drizzle in the
south and west. Cloud increasing throughout. |
4 |
. |
Overview: The high moved
east during Monday and is located in the far east of Victoria. Broad ridging extends
through the Tasman Sea and northwestward through South Australia and Western Australia. A
complex grouping of lows at ~40°S (these lows being significantly further north than
those over the previous few weeks), with a trough and front associated is affecting the
southwest of Western Australia, and this reflects the position of the upper longwave
trough. Over inland Queensland, just to the west of the Great Divide, the upper low has
become slow moving, with widespread rain over much of eastern Queensland. The northern
parts of the continent were mainly fine, as was much of the south. A band of cloud
extending through the Coral Sea southeast of Papua marks the strengthening subtropical
jet. Discussion: The
high over the southeast corner is likely to edge northeast just inland of the New South
Wales coast during Tuesday, maintaining a mild and moist onshore flow, triggering showers
along the coast as it moves north. The upper low over Queensland will continue to
edge north towards the subtropical jet and weaken before moving over the Coral Sea during
Wednesday. Strengthening northwesterly winds will strengthen over southern parts of
Western Australia as the low passing just to the south of the state becomes better
organised and begins to deepen - this low looks to become cutoff during Tuesday.
Widespread showers with scattered storms are likely with this system. An area to the west
of the state at ~35°S shows very cold unstable air approaching which will trigger further
showers and storms behind the front.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: A cold night with widespread frost, some may be severe in the
northeast. A mainly fine day throughout with increasing cloud in the west.
NSW: Scattered showers along the north coast. Cold nights inland with
some heavy frosts over higher parts. Mainly fine away from the coast.
Queensland: Widespread rain over the southeast corner and central coast and
adjacent hinterland. A cold inland with heavy frosts. mainly fine elsewhere.
NT: Fine.
WA: Fine in the north. Widespread showers with scattered storms
continuing through Monday night and into Tuesday and Wednesday in the southwest and south
of the state, extending north along the coast at times.
SA: Mild and mainly dry conditions except in the far west where isolated
showers may develop during Wednesday. Fogs in the southeast with frosts possible.
Tasmania: Showers in the south and west. Fog patches over much of
the state, clearing to a mainly fine day. |
3 |
. |
Overview: The surface
high, located over north central Victoria on Sunday afternoon influences much of the
weather in the southeast of the country in particular, with the northern coast of New
South Wales and southeast Queensland influenced by the wandering of an upper low (cold
pool at 500hPa, trough at 300hPa) and the southwest of the continent feeling the effects
of a weakening frontal system. Scattered heavy falls associated with the upper low to the
east and light to moderate falls in the southwest. The rest of the continent
experienced cold nights away from the coast and mainly fine days. Another front is
approaching Western Australia. Convergence north of Australia resulted in some isolated
showers over the northern parts of Cape York. Discussion: The
high will continue moving in an easterly direction through Monday and extend broad ridges
to the east and northwest giving cold nights and widespread frosts inland. The low
currently moving northwards through central Queensland remains a 'wildcard' for the
beginning of the week, but it looks likely to continue to move northwards, keeping to the
west of the Great Divide while the upper trough extends north also. Showers and storms are
likely to continue with its passage.
Much of Western Australia, excepting the west
and southwest is likely to remain fine (ie: no precipitation). Widespread showers
are likely from the cloudband being fed moisture from the Indian Ocean. A strong
high will reach the west by mid week, with the next longwave trough and associated colder
midlevel air looking to reach its most northerly point further east than over the previous
weeks.
Potential risk: The broad area of
convection near the Solomon Islands should be watched for development.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Cloud moving into the west of the state during Monday, clear
elsewhere during the day. Cold nights inland with widespread fogs, and frosts, some
severe in the northeast.
NSW: Showers continuing along the north coast and adjacent ranges. A
cold night inland with frost in most areas.
Queensland: Showers and scattered storms spreading through much of eastern
central Queensland with showers and storms continuing over parts of the southeast. A cold
night elsewhere and remaining mainly fine except for the northern tip of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine throughout.
WA: Widespread light showers are likely to persist over the central west
coast and southwest through Monday, extending east during the day.
SA: Widespread frosts inland with fogs, mainly in the southeast.
Tasmania: Showers in the south and west. A cold night in the east. |
2 |
. |
Overview: A slow moving
high is located in the eastern Bight near Eyre Peninsula extending broad ridges to the
northwest and through Victoria and then along the east coast. A weakening front is close
to the Western Australian coast and a deep low is located in the far southwest Bight. As
yesterday, most of the continent has been under the influence of the surface high and
subsidence from the upper levels. The exception to this is the northeast of New South
Wales, where conditions have been influenced by the presence of an upper low located
between 500hPa and 300hPa (~18,500 ' - 30,000'). Showers with scattered storms have been
located along the coast in this area. Discussion: The
high moving east across the southeast corner will continue strengthening, while upper
highs remain strong further west and stable air covers much of the west of the continent.
The front over the southwest of Western Australia will weaken and begin to slide southeast
through the Bight, while the next front will approach early in the week. The upper low and
associated 'cool pool' will remain over the northeast of New South Wales during Sunday and
will continue to trigger storms in the area, mainly along and just off the coast with some
heavy falls likely. Shower activity should extend into southeastern Queensland during
Sunday as the upper low moves north.
The deep low to the southwest will continue to
slide to southeast and will continue to deepen. Cloud will increase over the far west of
South Australia later Sunday, but conditions will likely remain dry. Isolated light
showers are likely along the entire southern coasts of the eastern states. A cross
equatorial flow may penetrate far enough south to interact with upper flow over the Top
End and Cape York to produce isolated showers in those regions.
Potential risk: An area of
convection south of Java should be monitored during Sunday and the early part of the week,
for the development of moist infeed moving towards the West Australian coast near to NW
Cape - there is the possibility of the development of a significant cloudband producing
widespread showers over parts of Western Australia early to midweek.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle patches in the south. A cold night inland
with fogs and frosts, clearing to a mostly fine day with light southeast winds.
NSW: Showers with scattered storms & local heavy falls continuing
along the north coast through Sunday. Isolated showers along the central and south coasts,
with occasional showers falling over the dividing range, possibly extending further inland
in the north.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the east coast becoming more frequent over
the north of Cape York. Isolated showers or storms in the southeast corner becoming
more frequent as the upper low moves over the area.
NT: Mainly fine except for isolated showers along the Top End coast.
WA: Dry in the north, scattered showers in the southwest with isolated storms
becoming more general in the south.
SA: Only isolated showers possible in the south along the coast,
clearing to a fine day throughout. Fogs with inland frosts.
Tasmania: Drizzle in the south spreading to the lower west.
Mainly fine elsewhere after fogs with frosts over higher parts. |
1 |
. |
Overview: A strong high
is located in the head of the Bight and has kept much of the country fine during Friday,
except for the southeast corner, where a weak front has triggered showers through Victoria
and Tasmania, and the far southwest of Western Australia which is being affected by a
surface trough and frontal system associated with the upper longwave trough. The lows in
the northern Tasman Sea are moving towards the North Island of New Zealand, with storms
being generated along the north coast of New South Wales behind them. A thermal (cold)
trough at 500hPa (~18,500') following the front is moving through the southeast of the
continent triggering showers with snowfalls on higher parts of the Alps. Discussion: The high in the
Bight will move steadily in a generally E direction and extend broad ridges to the
southeast and northwest. This large high at the surface with highs in the upper levels
also will keep much of the continent fine after inland frosts. The position of the
subtropical jet can be traced by the line of high cloud moving from the southwest along
the northwest coast of Western Australia.
The front will move through eastern New South Wales
during Saturday before passing into the Tasman Sea. Cool air currently in the mid
levels over much of eastern Australia to as far north as 20S remain through the weekend.
On the other side of the continent, temperatures will increase ahead of the front crossing
the southern parts of the state during Saturday. There is an upper infeed to this system
from the subtropics at ~20°S strong and the system will show a strong east-west
temperature gradient across the trough & front. Showers with isolated storms may
be triggered as the system moves east through the weekend.
A south-southwesterly flow onto the South
Australian and Victorian coasts during Saturday is likely to trigger scattered showers
while a mid level cool pool looks to move north across Victoria and into New South Wales,
possibly giving isolated snow showers to the higher peaks.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers in the northeast of the state with snow on the higher
peaks. isolated showers continuing south of the ranges. Local fogs with some frosts,
especially in the northeast.
NSW: Showers along the coast, with falls becoming heavier close to the
front. Some snow on the higher peaks. Isolated storms near to the front.
Cold morning inland with frosts in higher parts.
Queensland: Isolated showers in the southeast with a possible storm.
Fine after morning frosts away from the coast.
NT: Fine throughout.
WA: Fine in the north and east. Showers with isolated storms south of
~30°S with the passage of the trough and front - extending east through Saturday.
SA: Fine except for isolated showers in the south. Morning fogs in
the southeast.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in the west and south. Morning
frosts. |
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May Forecast Outlook, Discussion
& Report page |
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Victorian Weather Glass |