October 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Victoria

Date Name

Information

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Current Victorian and Australian Conditions

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November 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page

31 .

Overview: A high is located off the east coast in the southern Coral Sea extending a ridge along the Queensland coast - this high restrengthened after it moved off the land. A weak trough and front is moving across eastern Victoria and New South Wales during Wednesday night and part of this trough will likely to stall in the northeast of New South Wales and eastern Queensland. A ridge of high pressure is following the southern coastline of Western Australia while the west coast trough has deepened further inland of the coast. A west - southwesterly flow has become established over the eastern Bight and Tasmania.

Discussion: The high in the Coral Sea will begin to drift southeast, while the low near to Tasmania will move towards the southern Tasman Sea, setting up a southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching high. The deepening west coast trough will interact with the approaching front from the southwest and begin to move east. Significantly colder air lies to the southwest of the continent. The trough over northeastern New South Wales may lag for the next day or so over the northeast of the state and eastern Queensland, triggering showers and occasional storms, especially near to the coast in a moister environment.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers and drizzle, mainly along the coast, mostly clearing through Thursday.  Fine inland.
NSW:  Scattered showers with the chance of a storm associated with the passage of the trough through the state. Dry west - southwesterly flow behind the change, but without a significant drop in temperatures.
Queensland: Isolated showers about Cape York and the Gulf country.  Chance of a shower or storm in the southeast later Thursday as the trough lags through the area.
NT: Scattered showers and storms, mainly over the northwestern Top End, but a risk in the south of the Territory.
WA:  Isolated showers and storms near the trough moving east through the southern part of the state.  Showers developing over the southwest corner with the passage of a strong cold front.
SA:  Isolated light showers along the coast, clearing through Thursday.   Chance of a storm in the north of the state.
Tasmania:  Showers, mainly over the west, with the chance of light snow at higher altitudes, also in the west. A cool day before winds turn colder southwesterly.

30 .

Overview: The high has weakened as it has moved across eastern Australia, and the low in the Bight along with the trough extending through Western Australia has continued a generally easterly movement around the northern edge of the upper trough through Tuesday. The surface high to the west of the continent is ridging in along the southern coast.

Discussion: The surface low will begin to move in a more southeasterly direction during Wednesday and the trough and front will cross the southeast of the continent. Moisture from the Timor Sea and Indian Ocean will continue feeding into the trough over the northwest of the continent. A weak southwesterly flow will follow the front in the south ahead of the high which will move east rather more rapidly in the more zonal upper flow. The west coast trough will begin to deepen along the coast.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers and isolated storms, mainly midlevel, moving across the state during Tuesday night and Wednesday. Isolated showers, on and south of the ranges to follow the passage of the trough.
NSW:  Strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of a southwesterly change moving through much of the state during Wednesday. Showers with scattered storms.
Queensland: Scattered showers along the northern tropical coast.  Fine elsewhere.
NT: Scattered showers and isolated storms mainly in the west and north of the Top End.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms over the Kimberley. Mainly fine elsewhere after clearing light showers along the southern coast.  Becoming warm to hot ahead of the deepening west coast trough.
SA:  Showers and scattered storms overnight Tuesday night, clearing out of the state to the east.  Isolated coastal showers in the southwesterly flow behind the trough.
Tasmania:  Showers, mainly in the west and spreading east later.  Chance of a storm with the change.  Warm northwesterly winds swinging southwesterly.

29 .

Overview: The weakening high in the eastern Bight continues to drift slowly east with a weak trough inland of the Queensland coast and a small low in t the southern Coral Sea atop a trough. The low to the south of Western Australia and the trough through the state continue to also move slowly east triggering storm over the inland. The high ridging in from the Indian Ocean has already started to ridge beneath this low.

Discussion: The high will drift east across eastern Australia during Tuesday with the trough and front following through South Australia with showers and storms triggered in the baroclinic area ahead of the front. The low in the Bight will move a little south of east, but will remain in our latitudes. Again the high from the Indian Ocean will ridge along the southern coast of Western Australia.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers in the south with fog patches, clearing through Tuesday.  Strengthening north - northwesterly winds freshening in the west.
NSW:  Isolated showers along the north coast, clearing. Mainly fine elsewhere.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the Cape York and northern tropical coast.
NT: Isolated showers and storms mainly over the western part of the Top End.
WA:  Isoalted showers and storms associated with the trough moving through the Eucla and Interior of the state, contracting east through Tuesday.  Isolated showers and storms over the Kimberley.  Showers along the southern coast clearing through the day.
SA:  Strengtehning northerly winds ahead of a front moving through much of the state during Tuesday.  isolated showers and storms with the trough and associated front, mainly in the south.
Tasmania:  Showers, mainly in the west and south, clearing.

28 .

Overview: The weakening high in the Bight has moved only slowly through Sunday and has cut the deepening surface trough moving through eastern Queensland off. The cloudband from this system is expanding south along the New South Wales coast. The low and trough over the west coast is moving slowly east, triggering isolated storms within the baroclinic area ahead of this low.

Discussion: The high will continue to weaken as it moves east with the low to the west passing just south of Western Australia during Monday with the trough moving steadily east through the south of the state. The trough lying over Queensland is likely to weaken and become broader and less active, while a weak upper trough moves through New South Wales and into Queensland.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers on and south of the ranges clearing through Monday.  A cold night away from the coast and over higher parts of the range.
NSW:  Scattered showers continuing through the northern part of eastern New South Wales with the chance of a storm. Cool to cold conditions in the south overnight with a cool day to follow.
Queensland: Widespread showers and storms continuing through Sunday night, becoming less frequent through Monday as the trough weakens.  Scattered showers and storms over Cape York and the northeast tropical coast.
NT: Isolated showers and storms over the Top End, mainly in the northwest.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms over the Kimberley.  Showers with isolated storms associated with the trough moving through the south of the state & the low pressure following.
SA:  A cool to cold night in the east of the state, with northeasterly winds becoming northwesterly and strengthening in the west during Monday.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers, mainly in the west and south with light snowfalls likely over higher parts.  A cold night in the east.

27 .

Overview: The trough moving through eastern Australia has deepened as it has moved into a moister environment and has triggered showers and storms over the southeast of Queensland. The high in the Bight is beginning to cut this area off. This trough extends to the Kimberley and has also triggered showers and storms near to the coast in the northwest. The high in the Bight remains slow moving with the surface low and associated upper trough deepening as they move east towards the continent.  This surface low remains at lower latitudes than has been the case for a number of months, and is the second in a series of lower-latitude lows to affect the west.

Discussion:   The high in the Bight will remain slow moving and will cut the trough off from the westerly flow, leaving it slow moving over southeast and particularly the central coast and hinterland of Queensland. An upper circulation, evident over South Australia on Saturday night will move northeast and is likely to interact with the surface feature over Queensland  and may produce some moderate rainfall totals over parts of eastern Australia during Sunday. Moisture is building over tropical Australia. The low to the west will continue to move east between 35-40S and interact with the deepening west coast trough.

Areas to watch: the passage of the trough through eastern Queensland, and the movement of the upper low towards it should be monitored for the next 12 - 36 hours. 

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers continuing on and south of the ranges.  A cold night with cool conditions through Sunday.  Early snow flurries over the higher parts of the alpine areas, clearing.
NSW:  A southwesterly flow over the south of the state will tend more southeasterly in the north with early showers over the alpine areas and afternoon showers with the chance of a storm over the north of the state.
Queensland: Showers and storms over the southern and central coasts and adjoining hinterland.  Some moderate to heavy falls are likely within a slow moving trough in a moist environment.  Showers over Cape York.  Mainly fine elsewhere.
NT: Isoalted showers with the chance of a storm, mainly in the northwest.
WA:  Isolated showers and storms over the Kimberley.  Chance of a storm near the trough as it moves east through Sunday, mainly in the south.  Showers developing, mainly over the southwest.
SA:  Isolated showers in the southeast, clearing during Sunday.
Tasmania:  Cool to cold.  Showers with snow over higher parts easing later.  Isolated showers in the north and east. Southwesterly winds shifting southeasterly later.

26 .

Overview: A high located in the central Bight is to the southwest of a broad trough currently lying through New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory. A deep low over the Southern Ocean south of Western Australia extends a surface trough northwards to near 25S west of the continent, with signs of satellite low development within a deepening upper trough. The continent south of the tropics is influenced by a zonal westerly flow at 300hPa (30,000').

Discussion:   A southwesterly flow will become established across the southeast during the weekend leading to scattered showers, mainly along the ranges (falling as snow) and in the south. That part of the trough over New South Wales will drift northwards along the coast during Saturday, with the likelihood of some scattered shower and storm activity as it moves into a moister environment, particularly over eastern Queensland. Most of the inland extent of the trough away from the coast will remain largely inactive during the next 24 hours.

To the west, the upper trough and associated surface low will deepen as they move towards the coast with the surface low likely to remain between 30 and 38S. The high in the Bight looks to remain slow moving through the weekend.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers on and south of the ranges, falling as snow over higher parts of the alpine areas, becoming less frequent from the west late in the weekend.  Cool across the state.
NSW:  Showers lingering over the alpine areas, falling as snow.   Scattered showers along the coast north of Sydney later Saturday with the chance of a storm, mainly in the northeast corner.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms over the Cape York / Gulf of Carpentaria.   Isolated showers and the chance of a storm in the southeast corner during later Saturday.  Mainly fine elsewhere.
NT: Scattered showers and storms, mainly over the Top End.
WA:  Chance of a storm over the Kimberley associated with the trough.   Isolated showers over the Interior moving east and clearing the state early Saturday.
SA:  Scattered showers likely to continue along the coast, particularly in the southeast, with fine weather inland.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers mainly over the west and south, falling as snow at higher levels. Isolated showers elsewhere.  A continuing southwesterly flow.

25 .

Amazing images of the dust through New South Wales & Queensland......
Dust 1        Dust 2        Dust 3
new01.gif (172 bytes)


Overview: A weakening area of higher pressure (not a 'high' as we think of it) is located over eastern Australia surrounded by extensive troughs of low pressure.  Slack pressure gradients exist over the entire country (1000 to 1011hPa). A large area of convection developed over the eastern part of the Top End this afternoon and evening and moisture is also being drawn across the tropical Queensland coast. A trough lies through South Australia and Western Australia with some midlevel moisture being drawn in from the Indian Ocean. A pair of deep lows is moving eastward south of Tasmania.

Discussion:  The high will drift eastward across the northern Tasman and restrengthen somewhat off the coast, while the trough will move east through the eastern states, reaching the central coast of New South Wales by Friday night. The high in the Bight will strengthen and will move east during the weekend to be east of Tasmania by early in the week.  This high is supported by a strong upper high to its northwest. A brief return to chilly nights with the chance of a late frost in the southeast is likely. The west coast trough will slowly deepen just inland of the coastline.

Areas to watch: there are signs of midlevel vorticity southwest of Mt Gambier on Thursday night which should be monitored for further development.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers, tending to rain periods at times spreading east through the state on Thursday night and remaining on and south of the ranges through Friday.   Chance of a storm.  Winds turning westerly during the period with the chance of hail in the south.
NSW:  Northwesterly winds shifting southwesterly behind the trough moving through the southern part of the state Thursday night / Friday. Showers developing with sleet or snow over higher parts of the alpine areas.
Queensland: Isolated showers over Cape York. Fine elsewhere.
NT: Scattered showers and storms over the Top End, mainly in the west.
WA: Showers along the southern coast,  Isolated showers or storms are a risk over the Goldfields and Interior associated with the lagging trough. Warmer conditions developing in the west as the trough deepens.
SA:  Isolated storms associated with the eastward moving trough. Showers continuing over the southeast corner.
Tasmania:  Colder southwesterly flow over the state with showers tending to rain periods, mainly in the west and south falling as snow at higher levels during Friday.

24 Clyve Herbert Seems to be some mid level vorticity just southwest of Mt Gambier and moving eastward would be nice for Vic if it became slow moving!? .. a wish forecast maybe.....also not a bad tropical storm over the northeast of the NT it also has unusual upper outflow features.
24 .

 

A couple of amazing images of the dust through New South Wales & Queensland......
Dust 1        Dust 2
Overview: A deep trough has moved across eastern Australia with influence being felt as far north as southern Queensland with generally low pressures.  Wintery conditions with hail and thunder in the thermal trough that moved across the southeast corner during Wednesday. A weak high is located in the Bight surrounded by lower pressure. A surface trough and low pressure system are located near to the southwest corner of Western Australia, with the high to the west ridging southeast and cradling the system. A broad area of dust is moving through New South Wales and Queensland ahead of the windchange.

Discussion:  The high in the Bight will move northeast and weaken quickly, becoming absorbed into the generally lower pressures across Australia. The trough and low in the western Bight will move east through Thursday while a strengthening front moving northeast through the Bight is likely to interact with this system bringing further wintery showers, thunder hail and snow to the alpine areas during the latter part of the week.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers, mainly on and south of the ranges, with isolated storms and hail, contracting east.  Cool with a generally southwesterly flow.  Showers developing in the west later in the day with the approach of the next trough.
NSW:  Scattered showers remaining over the alpine areas, clearing from most of the state.
Queensland: Isolated storms in the east along the coast associated with the trough.   Dust settling out through Wednesday night and Thursday.
NT: Isolated showers in the northwest.
WA: Scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly off the coast during Wednesday night and moving east along the south coast during Thursday.
SA:  Isolated showers along the coast Wednesday night.  Showers developing in the west of the state with isolated storms associated with the trough moving into the state, spreading east through the day.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers with snow falling at higher levels in the west and south.  Scattered showers elsewhere.

23 . Overview: The low in the southern Bight has deepened as it has moved east through the day, and the trough extending northward through Victoria has amplified during the afternoon. This trough is also bringing significantly colder air to the southeast of Australia  from the Southern Ocean.The north of the continent remains under the influence of broad troughing, while a very dry atmosphere suppresses convection. A strengthening upper trough continues to move steadily towards the west coast and western Bight. A moisture plume is feeding in from the Indian Ocean into the trough over the southwest.

Discussion:  The trough and front will move east through Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing significantly colder conditions to the southeast, widespread showers, the chance of hail and thunder and snowfalls to the alpine areas...Welcome Back Winter! The trough will move through much of the eastern states by Wednesday night.

The low passing south of Tasmania will deepen as it progresses east. The high near to Western Australia, which ridged beneath the low near Perth will continue ridging to the northeast and cradle the low near to the coast. As this low moves east the west coast trough will deepen and interact with the trough to its south. Well to our west, a similar synoptic couplet is moving towards our longitudes, with a low well to the north and a high ridging beneath it.

Areas to watch: There is weak vorticity northwest of Tasmania that should be monitored. The trough in southeastern and eadstern Queensland is worth watching - there is a chance of more moisture coming into that area at lower levels!

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Widespread showers, with some heavy falls, mainly in the south, tending to rain periods at times.  Thunder with the chance of hail, mainly on and south of the ranges, with snowfalls over the alpine areas developing during Wednesday. Colder conditions throughout.
NSW:  Showers extending across the southern part of the state, with the chance of a storm with hail possible.  Snow over alpine areas, with light falls possibly extending north along the higher parts of the ranges. Northwesterly winds ahead of the front, becoming southwesterly from the west.  Chance of a storm in the northeast.
Queensland: Chance of an isolated shower or storm in the southeast.  Dry elsewhere.

NT: Chance of a shower in the northwest.
WA: Showers and scattered storms developing over the southwest as the trough and low move east. 
SA:  Widespread showers over the southeast and along the coast to the west of the front in a moist southwesterly flow. Chance of a storm with hail a risk in the southeast during Tuesday night mainly.
Tasmania:  Widespread showers, tending to rain periods, and lingering in the west.  The chance of a storm with hail, mainly in the west and south.  Snowfalls over higher parts later Wednesday.

22 . Overview: The high is moving over southeastern Australia and weakening rapidly, while almost the entire continent comes under the influence of a broad area of low pressure.  A deep upper trough and associated complex surface low is approaching Western Australia, bringing with it a lot of moisture, while the high in the Indian Ocean is ridging southwards under this low.

Discussion:  The trough approaching South Australia and the southeast will steer the high in a northeasterly direction where it will weaken and dissipate within the broad trough of low pressure remaining over eastern Australia. The high in the Indian Ocean will cut the low off near Perth, while a strong front with a marked east-west temperature gradient will cross South Australia and move into Victoria.

The high ridging under the low near Perth will also help set up a strong southwesterly flow across southeastern Australia, bringing a return to rather wintery conditions as far north as the Central Tablelands of New South Wales. Although generally low pressures across the continent, there is little available moisture away from the coast, hence little storm activity in the north of the country.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Northerly winds freshening ahead of an active front.  High cloud increasing from the west with showers and isolated storms likely ahead of and with the front.  Chance of more red rain in the south courtesy of raised dust north of the ranges.  Winds shifting cooler westerly.
NSW:  Chance of showers along the central and south coasts overnight and during the morning, clearing. The trough and front will move through southwestern New South Wales bringing showers, tending to rain periods at times in the south.  Chance of a storm in the south.
Queensland: Isolated showers with the chance of a storm over the southeast corner clearing by later Tuesday.   Fine elsewhere.
NT: Chance of a shower about the west coast.
WA: Showers and scattered storms along the south coast associated with the passage of a front.
SA:  Warm to hot with north to northwesterly winds ahead of a strong front.   Showers mainly in the south and southeast with the chance of a storms.
Tasmania:  Showers developing in the west and extending throughout - rain periods are likely to develop during Tuesday. Northwesterly winds shifting northerly later.

21 . Overview: A slow moving high has taken up residence in the Bight during the weekend.  A complex trough remains through Queensland, the Territory and to the Kimberley, but the atmosphere is very dry and the trough remains largely inactive. A low is approaching Western Australia near to 35S (a lower latitude than we have seen for a while), while another low is located in the southwestern Bight.  The west coast trough has deepened southward and is pushing through the ridge. A stream of cirrus marks the location of the upper jet.

Discussion: The trough over Queensland will move only slowly northeast, but conditions will become more moist as air is drawn in from the Coral Sea. The ridge of high pressure will weaken through Monday and begin to move east as the systems to the west move into our longitudes.

A strengthening upper trough to the west of the continent together with the surface low associated with it will approach the west later Monday / Tuesday. The high over the Indian Ocean will ridge beneath the low approaching Western Australia and cut it off from the westerly flow to the south. The west coast trough will likely invade the baric ridge during Monday, with the ridge over southern Western Australia retreating westwards. 

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Mainly fine with the exception of isolated showers over the coast.
NSW:  Showers are likely along central and northern parts of the coast. The chance of a storm in the northeast. Mainly fine elsewhere.
Queensland: Scattered showers and isolated storms in the southeast corner, moving northeast, with the risk of a shower further inland along the trough. Conditions remaining very hot northeast of the trough.
NT: Chance of a shower, mainly in the northwest.
WA: Mainly dry throughout. Chance of a shower along the southern coast.
SA:  Mainly fine after isolates showers over the southeast corner.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers in the west and south, mainly fine elsewhere.

20 . Overview: The deep low in the southern Bight is currently passing to the south of Tasmania and extends a trough through the Tasman, through northeast New South Wales, and across to the Kimberley. Lack of moisture has this trough being largely inactive. A high is located in the head of the Bight with a ridge lying across Western Australia. Another deep low and upper trough is located in the southwestern Bight. A baroclinic cloud patch over southwest Western Australia has developed through Saturday and also marks a strengthening upper jet over the area.

Bushfire plumes are evident on both radar & satellite imagery.

Discussion:  The low will move eastwards through the southern Tasman Sea while the trough will move only slowly through the northeast corner of New South Wales, Queensland and across the north of the continent, while the northwest part will remain anchored over the Kimberley, forcing the rest of the trough to 'swivel' as the low moves away. The high in the Bight will move only slowly east during Sunday.  The combination of a deepening upper  trough and approaching tropical moisture may make the next few days rather interesting, particularly over the west of the continent.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers along the southern coast clearing through Sunday. Showers possible over alpine areas, with the chance of sleet or snow at hihger levels.
NSW:  The risk of isolated showers in the far northeast corner. Cool in the southeast with showers over the alpine areas.
Queensland: The chance of scattered showers and isolated storms in the southeast, with just a small risk of a shower near the trough further inland.  Fine elsewhere and hot.
NT: Isolated coastal showers. Slight risk of a shower along the trough.
WA: Isolated showers along the south coast, clearing.
SA:  Isolated showers along the coast in the moist onshore flow ahead of the slow moving high.
Tasmania:  Strong to gale force southwesterly winds, with showers falling as snow at higher levels.

19 .. Overview: A deep low in the southern Bight extends a complex trough and front through Tasmania and Victoria on Friday night.  The trough can be traced all the way to the Kimberley region, but there is a serious lack of moisture away from the southern coast - actually, there was a serious lack of moisture across Victoria.  Red rain has fallen over southern Victoria courtesy of the northwest of the state. The high in the Tasman remains slow moving and rather weak, while the next high to our west is ridging weakly along the Western Australian southern coast.  A broad westerly flow is located south of the continent.

Discussion:  The front will move quickly through the southeast of the country and into the Tasman, while the trough may linger over northeast New South Wales during Saturday.  The high ridging into the west will move east near to 35S with an upper high to the north while the west coast trough will deepen just inland of the coast southwards into the ridge. Colder air in the middle levels is likely to move across Tasmania and Victoria Saturday night and into Sunday as the deep upper trough in the southern Bight moves to the south of Tasmania, with showers, and possibly snow at higher levels.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers, with isolated storms, mainly in the south and east, associated with the passage of a trough. Showers lingering over alpine areas and south of the ranges during Saturday.
NSW:  Scattered showers and isolated storms associated with the trough moving through all but the northeast corner during Saturday.  Lingering showers over the alpine areas.
Queensland: Fine throughout.
NT: Fine throughout, although there may be some cloud associated with a trough.
WA: Showers over the southwest corner clearing through Saturday.
SA:  Scattered showers lingering behind the trough and front will contract to the coast during Saturday.
Tasmania:  Rain areas, particularly in the northwest, with showery conditions continuing through Saturday.  Strong northwesterly winds.

18 . Overview: A weak ridge lies across southeastern Australia, literally marooned with in a sea of low pressure. Very high temperatures were recorded in northeast New South Wales ahead of the trough. A trough is passing along the New South Wales coast.  A strong front is crossing Western Australia (reports of tornadoes!!). A strong west-east temperature gradient at 850hPa is evident with this front. The 500 - 300hPa flow (18,500 - 30,000') can be located by tracing the baroclinic cloudband which lies ahead of the front in Western Australia, through the Bight and being drawn into the trough and into the Tasman.

Discussion:  The front will maintain its strength as it progresses east through Friday, with strengthening northwesterly winds. The high will move rapidly as the front moves east.  With much of the eastern part of Australia lacking in atmospheric moisture, little shower or storm activity is likely away from the frontal system over the south. Scattered showers and storms are likely with the passage of the front, particularly over the southeast corner. Another weak ridge of high pressure will move along the southern coast of Western Australia.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Strengthening northeast to northwesterly winds with increasing cloud from the west. Scattered showers with isolated storms in the west, extending east through Friday and reaching the east of the state late Friday / early Saturday.
NSW:  Scattered showers in the northeast Thursday night with the risk of a storm as a trough moves through.  Mainly fine ahead of an approaching front in the south with increasing cloud and strengthening northwesterly winds. Showers in the south with the chance of a storm.
Queensland: Chance of a shower or isolated storm with the passage of a trough through the southeast corner and into the Tasman Sea.  Mainly fine elsewhere.
NT: Isolated showers in the northwest.
WA: Showers with the chance of a storm with strong winds, possibly damaging in the southwest Thursday night - showers extending east through Friday, becoming less frequent in the east. Showers clearing from the west.
SA:  Strengthening northwesterly winds with increasing cloud in the west, scattered high based showers with the chance of a storm, mainly in the south, and later the southeast.
Tasmania:  Strengthening northwesterly winds shifting more westerly. Showers developing later Friday, with the chance of a storm in the northwest and west and spreading east before becoming cooler.  Showers to clear later.

17 . Overview: Weak pressure gradients over the Australian longitudes are dominant with the baric ridge breaking down completely. A complex trough moving through the southeast during Wednesday is bringing mainly light showers, while to the west a satellite low is moving through the Bight with an upper baroclinic cloudband ahead of a front approaching the southwest of the continent. A storm on the central coast of Queensland, and Hector over the Tiwi Islands north of Darwin were the convective activity north of 25S. Parts of Western Australia and South Australia, under the influence of an 850hPa heat sink recorded temperatures near the 40s with virtually no moisture in the air.

Discussion:  The trough will continue to move through eastern Australia while a weak ridge will build in from the west during Thursday, but will rapidly be moved into the Tasman by the next approaching trough. A front associated with a deepening upper trough will cross Western Australia during Wednesday, and the interaction with the baroclinic cloudband may lead to some moderate to heavy falls in the southwest in particular. Cyclogenesis is also possible within this area during Thursday.

Much of northern Australia will remain under a general trough of low pressure with occasional storms over southeastern and central Queensland coasts.

Areas to watch: The baroclinic cloud band in the western Bight may be drawn into the trough over southeastern Australia.   The direction of movement of the patches of cloud developing within the trough over inland South Australia on Wednesday night are worth watching.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered showers crossing the state with the front and then clearing through Thursday in most areas.  Showers are likely to linger in the east with the chance of a storm.
NSW:  Scattered showers and isolated storms associated with the trough as it moves northeast.  Showers lingering over alpine areas.
Queensland: Mainly fine except for the chance of a shower or storm in the southeastern corner.
NT: Isolated showers in the northwest.  Fine elsewhere.
WA: Showers in the southwest Wednesday night becoming more frequent, with some heavy falls particularly with the passage of the front during Thursday.  Mainly fine in the north of the state.
SA:  Showers along the coast overnight Wednesday will clear during Thursday.   Winds becoming more northwesterly through the day from the west.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west and the south Wednesday night, mostly clearing through Thursday.  The chance of snow over higher peaks.

16 . Overview: A weak pressure gradient lies across the continent. The low in the Tasman is continuing to tilt, with the trough extending through northeastern Queensland continuing to drift slowly east. A significant amount of moisture from the Indian Ocean has been advected across the southeast ahead of a trough approaching from South Australia. A front is approaching Tasmania. A satellite low is passing close to the south coast of Western Australia and is followed by a deeper low to its southwest. A weak high is approaching the west of the continent.

Discussion:  There are signs of possible cyclogenesis during Tuesday night or Wednesday in the eastern Bight. The front in the Bight on Tuesday night will move east and cross Victoria and Tasmania during Wednesday, and the scenario may become further complicated if the satellite low in the Bight begins to catch up with the trough moving through South Australia. The ridge of high pressure to the west will remain weak, with lower pressures remaining dominant. A weak pressure gradient will remain over northern Australia.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers during Tuesday night, clearing east.  Showers, with isolated storms developing in the west and then moving east as a trough moves through the state.
NSW:  Warm & dry conditions ahead of the front moving through the south of the state during Wednesday.  Scattered showers are likely in the south with the chance of a storm.
Queensland: Fine throughout with the exception of the chance of a shower or storm along the northeast coast.
NT: Mainly fine with the risk of a storm in the northwest.
WA: Isolated showers in the south associated with the passage of a front through southern parts.
SA:  Isolated showers along the coast and in the southeast of the state.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers throughout the state, tending to rain at times.   Chance of snow over the higher peaks behind the front.

15 . Overview: The surface low over Tasmania continues to move only slowly, but is also tilting with a resultant returning cloud band currently affecting Gippsland and expanding outwards from the low to affect central and southern parts of Victoria. The high over New Zealand is beginning to alter its alignment, with the northernmost part moving to the east faster than that in the south, while a ridge extends west south of the low, cutting it off from the westerly flow.

A weak high sandwiched between this low and the trough is located over the eastern part of Western Australia with another cell just off the west coast near to 25S (the lowest latitude for a high over these longitudes for quite a while). A broad trough in the southwestern Bight has a series of satellite lows moving northeast and around it. The trough that moved through eastern Australia during the weekend now lies through Queensland.

Discussion: With a ridge to its south, the low over Tasmania is likely to drift generally east during Tuesday following its upper cold pool which remains to its northeast. It is likely that the returning cloudbands across Tasmania and Victoria my produce some reasonable totals before the system moves further to the east.

The high will ride northeast towards Queensland around the top of this low.  A front is approaching from the southwest and the trough has begun movingeast through Western Australia.  A large amount of moisture, advected from the Indian Ocean is being drawn into our longitudes and this will interact with the trough and frontal system passing through southeastern Australia later in the week.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers overnight, with some reasonable totals, mainly in the south associated with the returning cloudband(s) around the low near Tasmania.  Clearing to the east through Tuesday.
NSW:  Mainly fine throughout after occasional showers over the southern ranges overnight Monday clear.
Queensland: Mainly fine except for isolated showers and the chance of a storms near to the northeastern extent of the trough.
NT: The chance of a shower along the Top End coast and in the northwest.
WA: Isolated showers in the Kimberley region.  Isoalted showers over the southern coastal regions, triggered by the passage of a front to the south.
SA:  Isolated showers over coastal regions.  Fine in the north.   Increasing cloud in the west with strengthening northwesterly winds.
Tasmania:  Showers and rain periods through much of the state, with heavier falls mainly in the west.

14 Clyve Herbert An interesting cirrus wrap around moving around the cold pool low over Tasmania and coming ashore near Wilson's Prom.
13 Clyve Herbert Not a bad looking cold pool just south of Mt Gambier, this system has a maximum vorticity around 500hpa at around 40 south west of Tasmania and due south of Mt Gamb: and appears to be moving slowly east might kick off some ok cold air CB's across southern Vic and through Tasmania this afternoon
12 . Overview: The high lies to the southeast of Australia and over Tasmania, ridging along the east coast and into the Northern Territory,helping to cradle the trough currently located over eastern Australia. A northeasterly flow has helped to increase the amount of low level moisture over the eastern part of the continent during the past few days.

The front crossing the Bight has caught the trough moving into South Australia with a high ridging in rather strongly behind it through Western Australia near to 30S. The low in the Bight, which is associated with a deepening upper trough, is approaching the western side of the high over the southeast, with a corresponding tightening of the pressure gradient and strengthening of northerly winds preceding the trough.

Discussion: The high over Tasmania will slip away to the southeast during Saturday being forced around the western side of the high which is presenting a longitudinal (N-S) boundary. The trough will move through South Australia and into Victoria during Saturday with strengthening north to northwesterly winds. The high to the west will weaken and continue to ridge through southern Western Australia while a strengthening ridge along the east coast, courtesy of the high in the Tasman will slow, if not halt the eastward movement of the trough over eastern Australia, while continuing to direct a moist northeasterly flow across the coast.

Areas to watch: the area of convection near to the Solomons is beginning to to show signs of better organisation.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Northeasterly winds turning northwesterly and strengthening ahead of a front. Increasing cloud in the west, with scattered showers and isolated storms developing and moving east.
NSW:  Showers along the coast, mainly in the north, clearing.   Strengthening north to northwesterly winds in the west, with isolated showers and storms developing ahead of the front.
Queensland: Isolated showers and storms developing along the trough.  Mainly fine elsewhere.
NT: Isolated showers in the northwest.  Mainly fine elsewhere.
WA: Isoalted storms in the Goldfields, with clearing showers along the south coast, clearing from the southwest.  Isoalted storms in the Kimberley.
SA: Scattered showers associated with the front.  North to northwesterly winds, shifting west to southwesterly from the west.  Isolated storms, mainly in the south, moving east and clearing the state during Saturday.  Cooler conditions with isolated coastal showers to follow.
Tasmania: Showers, tending to rain patches in the west, clearing later.

11 Clyve Herbert There appears to be some moisture   build up (low to mid level) over eastern QLD and northeast NSW, a weak dry line also exists through east central QLD along a weak surface trough, it will be interesting to see if some of this moisture is advected to the south over the next 24 to 36 hours and interact with the approaching trough through SA.
11 Andrew McDonald It is starting to look nicer with each model run.  AVN now has LI's down to -2 to -3.  There is going to be some infeed from the NE according to most models which will extend about as far W as a line from Warnambool to Mildura.  Between that NE infeed and the trough (W'lys) there is a narrow band of N'lys which is probably there at the moment and is what is most likely preventing anything significant from developing over the land.  Once/if the trough can ride into the NE'ly infeed tomorrow, things should start to get a LOT more interesting.  Let me just say though that this NE infeed is not overly moist in itself but it should have more moisture than the N'ly.  I think where the trough runs into the NE'ly is the place to be.  DP's of 8C or more should see storms (PBL DP that is).  Given the temps of the lower levels, it should be a late kick off - going by what I've seen I'd be thinking after 3pm.
11 . Overview: An 850hPa trough over eastern Australia is helping the infeed of moisture into the area, with the surface trough deepening through Queensland and into New South Wales during the day.   Another trough extends through the Tasman Sea from the South Island of New Zealand, and also plays a role in the infeed mechanism operating at present. The high has moved only slowly east from the Bight into Bass Strait to the south of the trough. To the west of the high the west coast trough has deepened southward and moved east into the Goldfields of Western Australia ahead of a front crossing the southwest corner of the continent.

Discussion: The trough over eastern Australia looks to weaken slightly through Friday but remain through Queensland and New South Wales. The high will drift slowly towards the Tasman Sea through Friday, with the pressure gradient between the trough over eastern Australia and the trough moving through South Australia becoming steeper, as the more westerly system pushes east.  The low pushing east through the Bight will slide southeast along the western edge of the high pressure over the southeast.

This image (courtesy CSIRO) shows a distinct boundary between moist air to the east and dry air to the west over Queensland this afternoon.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A mainly fine day with winds shifting more northeasterly.
NSW:  Isolated showers over the northeast coast, clearing. Scattered showers and isolated storms developing mainly near and east of the trough in the north. A moist northeasterly inflow across the coast.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms near and east of the trough, mainly in the south.  Fine elsewhere.
NT: Isolated showers in the northwest.  Fine elsewhere.
WA: Scattered showers and isolated storms along the trough and with and to the west of the front. Isolated storms over the Kimberley.
SA:  Strengthening northerly winds with cloud increasing in the west. Scattered showers, mainly high based and not reaching the ground.
Tasmania:  Isolated showers, mainly in the west and northeast.  Fine elsewhere after a cool night.

10 . Overview: The high in the Bight has remained quasi-stationary through Wednesday and the trough through eastern Australia which extends into the central Tasman Sea has also moved eastward only slowly.   The high over New Zealand extends a ridge paralleling the Queensland coast just offshore. Isoalted storms in the northeast of New South Wales and southeast Queensland during the afternoon - with reports of large hail from Jimboomba (Qld). The west coast trough has deepened through the day inland from the coast.  Moisture from the area of convection near the Solomon Islands is being held to the northeast by the upper high over the Coral Sea.

Discussion: The high in the Bight will move very slowly east during Thursday, dependent upon the high over New Zealand moving anywhere (like further east...), although the ridge off the Queensland coast will weaken, allowing the trough to move east at lower latitudes. The trough through Western Australia will deepen and move east, while to its south a front will cross the southwest of the state. The high to the west will begin to ridge into the far west near to 30S.

The trough over western Queensland is beginning to show signs of more sustained seasonal development, and while the high over the Bight moves east across southern Australia during the next day or so, the trough will deepen southward west of the Queensland ranges, and into New South Wales west of the ranges, while the high will ridge along the coast, slowing the trough's eastward progression.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A cold night with widespread frosts, some severe particularly north of the ranges. A mainly fine day throughout.
NSW:   A cold night in the south with some frosts. Scattered showers and isolated storms are likely in the north near to the trough. Scattered showers along the coast will contract northwards.
Queensland: Isolated showers and storms possible during Wednesday night over the southeast. Scattered showers and isolated storms during Thursday associated with the trough which looks to lie west of the ranges Thursday morning and drift east during the day.
NT: Isolated showers in the northwest.
WA: Scattered showers and isolated storms along the trough as it moves east through the Gascoyne and Goldfields, with scattered showers in the southwest, mainly along the coast with the passage of the front.
SA:  A cold night with frosts, occasionally severe. Strengthening northerly winds ahead of the trough in the west later. Mainly dry.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers in the west with light snowfalls likely over higher parts.  A cold night with widespread frosts in the east clearing to a mainly fine day over the central and east of the state.

9 . Overview: The thermal trough passed across today, with a return of rather wintery conditions to the southeast of the country. Pressures rose quickly behind the trough from their lows of between 994 and 1001hPa during the past couple of days. A broad cold air field is moving through the Bight and will continue to bring scattered showers particularly to Tasmania and the southern parts of Victoria and South Australia. A weak trough extends from New South Wales to the Northern Territory, while the high ridges through southern Western Australia. A cold front is entering the western Bight. Moisture from the area of disorganised convection over the Solomon Islands has drifted southwest to Cape York. A trough lies across the southern Top End.

Discussion: During Wednesday, the high will bud off into the Bight and strengthen, influencing much of the weather across the country with the exception of coastal Queensland, mainly in the south where scattered showers and isolated storms are likely as the trough moves into a moister environment, and Tasmania, still likely to be affected by showers courtesy of a moist westerly from the Bight. The west coast trough will begin to deepen just inland during Wednesday, and heating across the northwest of the continent will continue its seasonal increase.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A cold night.  Scattered showers with the chance of a snow shower over the higher peaks Tuesday night, clearing through Wednesday. Showers on and south of the ranges becoming more scattered during Wednesday and clearing.
NSW:  Showers in the southeast, mainly Tuesday night, with the chance of a snow shower over the higher peaks Tuesday night.  Scattered showers and the risk of a storm in the far northeast as the trough moves out of the state.   Fine elsewhere.  Cool conditions in the south Tuesday night.
Queensland: Isolated showers with the risk of a storm in the east as the trough moves east. Mainly dry elsewhere.
NT: Fine with the exception of the chance of a shower in the northwest.
WA: Isolated showers in the southwest, clearing.  Fine elsewhere.
SA:  Coastal showers overnight, clearing through Wednesday as the high moves east.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west and north Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, falling as snow at higher levels, clearing.  Mainly fine in the east.

8 . Overview: A complex trough is moving over Victoria during Monday afternoon and evening after the initial trough (which passed through during Sunday) began retrograding (drifting southwest) towards the approaching stronger trough, with pressures dropping fairly consistently across the southeast of the continent between central Victoria and central South Australia during the day. A trough extends from southeastern New South Wales (another part of the complex system over the southeast) to the Northern Territory. A deep low of 964hPa is located within a broad upper trough over the southern Bight bringing very cold air towards the southern coastline. The high to the west is ridging into southern Western Australia. An area of strong convection is located over the Solomon Islands with moisture drifting southwest towards Queensland.

Discussion: The northern part of the trough will move through New South Wales and Queensland during Tuesday, while over southeastern Australia, cooler conditions with widespread showers and isolated storms are likely. The high ridging across southern Western Australia will help direct a moist southwesterly flow onto the southern part of the continent. Strong winds over Tasmania will be associated with the passage of the low to the southwest. The high over New Zealand will ridge more weakly along the Queensland coast as it continues to move slowly east.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers with isolated storms mainly on and south of the ranges.  Isolated storms in the south with the chance of hail mainly near the coast.
NSW:  The trough will move east through the state with scattered showers and storms.  Cooler conditions developing in the south behind the trough with showers on the ranges.
Queensland: Mainly fine except for showers and isolated storms in the southeast and along the trough, especially Monday night.
NT: Isolated showers in the northwest.  Fine elsewhere.
WA: Showers along the south coast contracting east as the high builds in.   Mainly fine elsewhere.
SA:  Showers along the coast in a moist southwesterly onshore flow.   Becoming less frequent through Tuesday.  Remaining cool.
Tasmania:  Showers tending to rain periods in the north and the west with scattered storms, particularly Monday night.  Winds turning colder southwesterly with highland snowfalls developing later Tuesday.

7 Nick Sykes Things are starting to look interesting for next weekend over SE Australia. GASP and AVN/MRF have a low pressure trough deepening to the west of Victoria over SA, in association with an approaching cold pool, what is really interesting is what the models have happening next. A high is forecasted to be blocked in the Tasman as the result of a low pressure sytem developing over NZ. This block will bring the movement of this trough to a crawl, and result in a very nice infeed of moisture from the NNE (Coral Sea). This type of setup can breed storms. NGP and EC push a weakening front a lot earlier, with no block, giving a boring change. Still a long way out but there to ponder.
7 . Overview: A deepening low is moving southeast through the Bight, followed by a satellite low moving northeast towards the southwest coast which has brought a large cold air field over southern Western Australia. A trough and front extends across western Victoria and South Australia during Sunday evening. The high to the west of this sytem is ridging weakly to the northeast and south. A weak tropical disturbance remains near the Solomon Islands. The high to the east of Australia has moved slowly to be over the South Island of New Zealand.

Discussion: The low looks likely to continue it's southeast movement during Monday, deepening within a deepening upper trough over the Bight and bringing strengthening winds as far east as western Tasmania. The trough will move through New South Wales and Victoria by later Monday bringing mostly mid-level showers and scattered storms mostly ahead of the trailing front. The high over New Zealand will maintain the ridge along the Queensland coast.  The high to the west will ridge into Western Australia near to or just south of 30S.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers with isolated storms extending from the west Sunday night and through to the east by later Monday.  Winds shifting to the west.
NSW:  Isolated showers and storms in the south developing along the trough as it moves across the state. Mainly fine conditions with increasing cloud ahead of the trough.
Queensland: Mainly fine. The trough will move through the southwest of the state but will remain largely inactive at these latitudes.
NT: Isolated showers over the Top End and northwest as well as being possible along the trough moving through the southern districts.
WA: Showers in the south of the state clearing.  Isolated storms over the Kimberley.
SA:  Scattered showers with isolated high based storms associated with the trough and moving out of the state Sunday night / Monday. Showers in the west along the coast becoming more frequent as the winds shift westerly.
Tasmania:  Showers tending to rain in the west and the northwest. Strengthening north to northwesterly winds.

6 . Overview: A complex low over Victoria continues to move only slowly in a generally easterly direction.  The trough extending through northeastern New South Wales is storm active during Saturday night.  The high in the southern Tasman still extends a weak ridge under the trough cradling it as well as helping to slow its eastward movement. A trough ahead of a deepening low located south of Perth is drawing in a substantial amount of moisture from the Indian Ocean. Moisture is building up over the northern parts of Queensland courtesy of the broad convective area north east of the Coral Sea.

Discussion: The low near Perth will move southeast during Sunday and deepen, with the trough and front moving quickly east into South Australia during Sunday. This low is associated with a deepening upper trough over the southwestern Bight and will bring an extensive area of cold air across southern parts of Western Australia behind the front. The high to the west of the continent will move steadily east, but will not strengthen much over the next 24 hours. The high near to New Zealand will continue to ridge along the Queensland coast and will slow the movement of the trough. Moist infeed from the broad area of convection northeast of the Coral Sea is likely to continue at least through Sunday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Strengthening northwesterly winds with warmer conditions generally, and increasing cloud in the west. Showers clearing in the east, with showers developing in the west later with the approach of the trough.
NSW:  Showers and storms in the northeast mostly clearing away to the east during Sunday. Cloud increasing in the southwest of the state with northwesterly winds and warmer conditions developing ahead of the front.
Queensland: Showers and scattered storms in the southeast Saturday night clearing east during Sunday.  Isolated showers over Cape York.
NT: Showers and isolated storms, mainly in the northwest and northeast corner of the Top End.  Isolated showers in the southwest.
WA: Strong northwesterly winds ahead of the front. Scattered showers and isolated storms with hail likely in the south west of the front. Isolated storms over the Kimberley.
SA:  Increasing cloud, strengthening winds with warmer conditions developing ahead of the trough and front.  Isolated showers and storms in the west and spreading east through the day.
Tasmania:  Northeasterly winds with showers in the northeast, clearing with winds shifting northwest during Sunday.  Showers developing in the west later with the chance of a storm.

5 . Overview: A complex low (analysed at all levels) has been located over Victoria during Friday with a trough extending north to the tropics. Widespread storms over Victoria have been a feature of this system as the low has moved further into the state. The weak high in the Bight extended a ridge to the south of this system and into the Tasman, helping cradle the system, while the high in the Tasman prevented any rapid eastward movement. The west coast trough continued draw moisture in from the Indian Ocean and to deepen, while a low pressure system and cold front, associated with a deepening upper trough is approaching Western Australia. Tropical moisture continues to trickle steadily into the northeast of the continent.

Discussion: The weakening trough will drift generally southwards during Saturday, with the high in the Tasman strengthening as it also pushes south. In the north, this trough will begin to move eastwards, with scattered showers and isolated storms likely on its east side.The low will affect the southern parts of Western Australia with the west coast trough also moving east through the state together with this system. A very strong east-west temperature gradient will be a feature of this trough - front.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers will continue through much of the eastern part of the state, mainly in southern and mountain areas. Clearing in the northwest and from the west later.
NSW:  Scattered showers and isolated storms in the northeast ahead of the trough, with showers and storms in the southeast also.
Queensland: Isoalted showers over Cape York, and possibly near the southern Gulf.   Isolated showers and storms in the southeast are likely.  Fine elsewhere.
NT: Isolated showers an storms over the Top End, mainly in the north and around the Gulf.
WA: Isolated showers and storms ahead of the trough moving through the Gascoyne and Goldfields on Saturday.  Showers increasing with the passage of the cold front with winds strengthening.  Becoming colder in the south with continuing showers, mainly in the southwest.  Mainly fine in the north.
SA:  Isoalted showers along the coast, contracting to the southeast during Saturday.  Increasing cloud and temperatures in the west with strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of the trough.  Showers with the chance of a storm in the far west.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers in the north generally increasing to rain periods at time with the chance of a storm.

4 . Overview: The trough has become quasi-stationary with cyclogenesis in the mid and upper levels translating downwards towards the surface during the latter part of the day over southeast South Australia. A trough also extends through the  southern Tasman Sea. The high in the Tasman ridges along the Queensland coast, while the high in the western Bight ridges to the southeast below the trough, cutting it off from the westerly flow.

Discussion: The high in the Tasman will remain slow moving with the ridge continuing to lie along the Queensland coast.   This surface high, supported by upper ridging above, will help to slow the eastward movement of the trough and developing low. The high in the Bight will ridge south of the trough and cradle it over the southeast through Friday. The west coast trough will deepen through Friday but remain about the coast, while the next frontal system is approaching Western Australia later Friday or Saturday. Northern Australia will remain under a rather generalised area of low pressure.

Areas to watch: keep an eye on the patch of cloud over the western Bight near to 40S Thursday night and moving east.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers and storms in the west on Thursday night, extending slowly east as the low moves into the state. Showers and storms continuing across the central and eastern parts of the state, with moderate to heavy falls possible.
NSW:  Cloud increasing in the west of the state Thursday night and extending east. The trough will move only slowly through Friday with showers and scattered storms, mainly on the eastern side of the trough. A warm day in the northeast.
Queensland: Isolated showers over Cape York and south of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Late showers and isolated storms in the south, east of the trough.
NT: Isolated showers and storms over the Top End and Gulf Country. Fine elsewhere.
WA: The west coast trough will deepen during Friday and move east later in the day.  Mainly fine throughout.
SA:  Scattered showers and storms in the southeast Thursday night, clearing through Friday as the trough and low move slowly out of the state.  Mainly fine in the north, with the chance of a shower along the west coast.
Tasmania:  Showers tending to rain periods in the north and east, particularly in the northeast.  A cool day elsewhere.

3 . Overview: The high remains over the northern Tasman Sea near to 30S extending a ridge along the Queensland coast. Northern Australia remains under a broad but mainly inactive trough. A complex trough extends through South Australia, left behind when the front to the south sheared away to the east. The high in the Tasman is blocking the eastward movement of this system. The high to the west is ridging through the western Bight with ridges affecting northern South Australia and to the southeast of the trough. The broad westerly flow has been displaced southwards.

Discussion: All systems will remain slow moving if not quasi-stationary across eastern Australia during Thursday,  with the high in the Tasman blocking the eastward movement of the trough. The tilting of the trough indicates the likelihood of cyclogenesis - most likely to be over the southeast South Australia / western Victoria area during the next 12 - 18 hours. The high ridging through the western Bight will remain south of the continent and may ridge south of the trough, further cradling it over the southeast of the continent. The west coast trough will begin to deepen just off the coast, bringing warmer conditions ahead of it.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers tending to rain periods, mainly on and south of the ranges. Isolated storms particularly over the northeast ranges are likely. Light variable winds across the state.
NSW:  Showers along the coast, mainly in the south. Cloud increasing in the south with scattered showers and isolated storms within the trough. Warmer northerly winds developing with the chance of showers and isolated storms in the northeast.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the more northern parts of the east coast. Isolated showers southwest of the Gulf.
NT: Isolated showers, mainly over the northeast of the Top End, but occasionally in the northwest.
WA: Isolated showers and storms clearing from the Kimberley with drizzle patches and coastal showers clearing in the south as the high strengthens.
SA:  Showers and isolated storms over central districts during Wednesday night, moving east during Thursday to be clear of the state during the day.   Scattered showers west of the trough, mainly along the coast, clearing as the high approaches.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west and north, extending throughout,  with conditions remaining rather mild with mainly light winds.

2 David Jones Further to my post earlier in the week, the progs are showing a convergence towards a significant trough/low developing through central Vic in the coming two days (eg NOGAPS at http://152.80.49.205/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ngp_ausnz&prod=
prp
) This type of system is the "almost-classic" heavy rain producer for central Victoria. This is certainly one to watch. I wouldn't be surprised to see 25-50mm falls in the topographically favored central areas IF this eventuates. Also... watch for a strong front early next week...
2 . Overview: The high over New South Wales has moved steadily east through Tuesday to be located just off the coast. A weak ridge extends along the Queensland coast. Ahead of the approaching frontal system and trough in the Bight, most of eastern Australia was fine after a cool night with scattered inland frosts and fog patches. The trough over Western Australia is moving through the east of the state, triggering storms along its length. Moist infeed from the Indian Ocean into this trough (which is full height) continued through Tuesday.

Discussion: The high will move slowly away form the coast remaining near to 30S during Wednesday, strengthening the ridge along the Queensland coast and directing a moist southeasterly flow over the southern New South Wales coast. Northwesterly winds with increasing temperatures ahead of, and showers and scattered storms with the deepening trough will affect southeastern Australia through midweek. It is likely that the southern part of the front will shear away and leave a lingering trough over the southeast of the continent during the latter part of the week. West of this system, the next high will ridge into the western Bight, with the trough over the west retracting northward.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Freshening north to northwesterly winds ahead of a trough moving into the state during Wednesday.  Showers and scattered storms are likely, mainly in the south with the trough, which may become slow moving over the central and eastern parts of the state.
NSW:  Northwest to northeasterly winds over the state, strengthening in the west. Warm with increasing cloud in the southwest with the approach of the trough.
Queensland: Showers over the exposed parts of the coast north of about Rockhampton and about Cape York (hi Rob!).
NT: Isolated showers along the north coast.
WA: Scattered showers and storms with the trough moving through the Eucla on Tuesday night. Showers lingering along the south coast behind the trough before clearing as the ridge moves in.  Isolated storms in the northern inland.
SA: Northerly winds with increasing temperatures ahead of the trough moving through the state during Wednesday. Scattered showers with isolated storms ahead of and with the trough. Milder southwesterly winds to the west with showers lingering.
Tasmania:  Northwesterly winds swinging to the southwest behind the front crossing the state during Tuesday night / Wednesday.  Showers, more frequent in the west of the state, becoming scattered later in the day.

1 . Overview: The high in the Bight has continued to linger during Monday, only just making it to the southeast coast of South Australia and remaining near to 35S. The trough down the west coast has deepened through Monday with an increase in tropical moisture feed from the Indian Ocean into the area. A cold pool associated with the trough moving along the New South Wales coast has triggered showers in its vicinity. The trough which lagged over the north of the continent during last week has moved off the Queensland oast. A series of cold front is just to the southwest of Western Australia but are unlikely to affect the southwest coast while the ridge of high pressure steers them through the western Bight.

Discussion: The high will move into eastern Australia during Tuesday, steered northeast by a trough strengthening to the west. Cold nights and mainly fine conditions with frost and fog patches are likely. This high will also direct a moist onshore flow onto the Queensland coast. The west coast trough will move inland eastward from the coast during Tuesday, triggering showers and storms. Strong east-west temperature gradients are once again becoming more common across frontal boundaries as the continent heats up. The high in the Indian Ocean will ridge into our longitudes just to the south of the continent.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers along the southwest coast Monday night. A cold night inland with scattered frosts, some possibly severe in sheltered areas, with patchy fogs on the coast and ranges. Strengthening northerly winds in the west, with temperatures increasing.
NSW:  Mainly fine with isolated showers clearing from the north coast.  A cold night inland with the chance of frosts in sheltered areas.
Queensland: Isolated showers over Cape York and along exposed parts of the coast. Fine elsewhere.
NT: Isolated showers possible along the northwest coast.  Mainly fine elsewhere.
WA: Showers and storms possible in the Kimberley, Pilbara and northern Gascoyne with the trough.  Showers along the south coast will linger behind the eastward passage of the trough.
SA: Warmer conditions in the west with strengthening northwesterly winds and increasing cloud ahead of a southwesterly wind change in the far southwest.
Tasmania:  Westerly winds turning northwesterly and strengthening ahead of the front.  Showers in the western half of the state, contracting to the south later in the day.

. .

September 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page

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