July 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Victoria

Information

A trough and front is crossing Western Australia with tropical moisture originating from north of Indonesia feeding into this system across the west coast south of the Pilbara. The Cape York and northeast of the Top End are seeing increasing moisture levels, as is eastern Australia generally. A high in the Indian Ocean is ridging towards the west of the continent between 30 and 35°S.

Discussion: The upper trough over Queensland will move off the coast during Wednesday, and the surface trough over the Tasman is likely to weaken.  A moist onshore flow will trigger showers over the northern New South Wales and southern and central Queensland coasts.  The high, which was cradling the Tasman trough during Tuesday will ridge to the northwest through New South Wales. Cold nights and widespread frosts are expected over southeastern Australia on Tuesday night.

The trough and frontal system over Western Australia will move into South Australia during Wednesday - a satellite low in the southwest Bight will move northeast initially on Wednesday around around the deep low in the Southern Ocean.  The high will ridge in across southern Western Australia.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Increasing high cloud over the southwest.  A cold night with widespread frosts, some severe, especially in the west, north and along the ranges. A mainly fine day with some fog patches in the south lingering.
NSW:  Showers along the coast in a moist southerly flow, mainly in the north.   A cold night in the south with frosts, with some possibly severe over higher parts.
Queensland:  Possible isolated storms in the east Tuesday night, clearing. Isolated showers over much of the coast as well as Cape York, with the chance of a storm over the central ranges during Wednesday.
NT: Mainly fine with the chance of shower over the northeast and morning fogs over parts of the Top End.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Showers over the west coast and southern parts, moving east Tuesday night and through Wednesday with the trough and front. Isolated showers lingering in the south and southwest in the onshore flow.
SA:  A cold night, particularly in the east, with widespread frosts. Showers developing later in the day with the approach of the trough and front, mainly in the south, mostly not reaching the ground.
Tasmania:  A cold night with widespread frosts, and some fog patches. Strengthening northwesterly winds later in the day with increasing cloud in the west.   Fine in the east. 

A high of medium strength is located in the head of the Bight, while a trough and front approaches the southwest of Western Australia at the leading edge of the next longwave trough.  Some upper cloud is evident of high level moisture feeding in from the Indian Ocean across the Pilbara coast and then to the northeast - cloud, but no rain.

Discussion:  

A trough, supported by an upper low, has its centre over southern Queensland with a dryline extending along the western side of the Great Divide to Cape York being evident during the afternoon. The trough also extends to the southeast through northern New South Wales and joins to a pair of fronts in the central Tasman Sea. Storms this afternoon have extended from as far south as near Sydney, over the northeastern corner of New South Wales, and through southern Queensland under the influence of this extensive trough........it's almost spring!

A high of medium strength is located in the head of the Bight, while a trough and front approaches the southwest of Western Australia at the leading edge of the next longwave trough.  Some upper cloud is evident of high level moisture feeding in from the Indian Ocean across the Pilbara coast and then to the northeast - cloud, but no rain.

Discussion:  The trough over eastern Australia will weaken through later Monday and Tuesday but remain over the southern part of Queensland, and move east later Tuesday.  A further trough will deepen off the New South Wales coast. The high in the Bight will move east across the southeastern part of the continent, and while ridging to the northwest, will cradle the trough to its north.  Little pressure change over southeastern Australia is likely for at least the next 24 hours, and the baric ridge will remain near 35°S and the baric trough through the Southern Ocean near to 60°S.

Showers will continue along the Queensland coast while isolated storms will be likely under the influence of the trough, mainly in Queensland and the far northeastern corner of New South Wales.

Light winds over much of southeastern and central Australia will mean a return to cold nights, particularly inland, with strong radiational cooling under the influence of this high. The trough and front will move fairly quickly through southern parts of Western Australia during Tuesday, with showers also extending north along the west coast.  An extensive infeed of tropical moisture into this trough from the Indian Ocean may help this trough deepen further.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Only patchy cloud, mainly in the south and along the eastern ranges overnight.  A cold night with widespread frosts.  A fine day to follow, with patchy cloud about the ranges.
NSW:  Isolated showers and storms near the central and north coasts Monday night, contracting northeast. Cold nights inland, mainly in the south. Drizzle patches on the windward slopes of the ranges, mainly in the south.
Queensland: Showers and scattered storms, mainly in the south and near the central ranges, moving east with the trough.  Fine in the west of the state.   Showers along the east coast.
NT: Possible isolated showers over the northeast Top End, some patchy high cloud extending through the Territory from the west.
WA:  Showers and possible storms in the southwest with the trough and front, extending north along the west coast.  Some high cloud over the Pilbara and western Kimberley.
SA:  Mainly fine throughout after a cold night with widespread frosts mainly in the southeast. A fine day with light winds.
Tasmania:  Mainly fine after clearing showers in the west.  A cold night with widespread frosts with fogs more generally in the east.  Cloud increasing later Tuesday / Wednesday with the approach of the next front. Northwesterly winds strengthening.

The ridge of high pressure has remained over eastern Australia from a slow moving high to the southeast of New Zealand. A moderate strength high has become established over the southern coast of Western Australia. The area of lower pressure that has been over the far north of the Territory remains.

Discussion:  The front is likely to slow as it moves through the southeast of the continent, while the trough will deepen ahead of it over New South Wales. The high over Southern Western Australia will move steadily east across the head of the Bight while the baric trough remains near to 60°S again.

The ridge along the Queensland coast will remain through Monday with showers over much of the coast. Much of New South Wales will be under cloud, with scattered showers under the influence of the slow moving trough. Southern parts of  Queensland will also be influenced by this trough and will see isolated showers becoming more widespread into Tuesday and moving east.  Another front will approach Western Australia Tuesday bringing widespread showers to the southwest.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers over the Alps Sunday afternoon / Monday falling as snow.  Scattered showers elsewhere Sunday contracting to the south and east and becoming isolated.
NSW:  Showers in the south, falling as snow over the Alps.  Scattered showers developing in the north later Monday and into Tuesday.
Queensland:  Isolated showers developing in the south, with the chance of a storm, under the influence of the trough moving through eastern Australia. Showers along most of the eastern coast.
NT: Mainly fine throughout.
WA:  Some high cloud over northern parts of the state, but remaining fine.   Strengthening northwesterly winds on Monday night / Tuesday ahead of a front.
SA:  Scattered showers in southern districts, mainly along the coast, then clearing and becoming fine throughout under the influence of a ridge moving from the west.
Tasmania:  Showers, with snow over higher parts,  clearing from the west Sunday night.  Only isolated showers remaining mainly in the west through Monday.

Discussion:  The ridge of high pressure will remain over eastern New South Wales while edging westward over Queensland. The prefrontal trough will continue to draw some moisture from the Indian Ocean. The front will move through the southeastern corner during Saturday night to Sunday night   while the ridge over eastern Australia will weaken and contract to the southeast.

Colder air to the west of the front and associated with the thermal trough will become more generally established over southern Australia during Sunday and Monday. The new centre of high pressure will move along the southern coast and is likely to be near the head of the Bight by Sunday night and maintain its strength.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Cloud increasing in the west Saturday night ahead of the front   with showers developing and spreading east through Sunday.  A mild day becoming cooler with scattered showers, mainly in the south and on the ranges, falling as snow on the Alps, with the snow level lowering later as colder air becomes established.
NSW:  Winds becoming northwesterly ahead of a front moving through much of the south of the state during  Sunday.  Showers developing in the south, falling as snow over the Alps.
Queensland: Isolated showers over Cape York and the far northeastern tropical coast becoming more widespread over much of the coast during Sunday. A cold night inland with some frosts in the south.
NT: Isolated showers about the northeast coast.  Fine elsewhere.
WA:  Only isolated showers during Sunday in the southwest of the state, with showers in the southeast clearing on Saturday night. A cold night in the south.
SA:  Showers in the south and southeast, occasionally heavy during Saturday night and early Sunday, clearing to isolated showers during Sunday. Possible storms in the south in the colder air behind the front.
Tasmania:  Cloud increasing in the west.  Showers (with the chance of a storm in the west), becoming more widespread and spreading east during Sunday. Showers will become more isolated in the east later in the day.

Discussion:  The high over New South Wales will remain slow moving through Saturday The surface low in the Bight will continue to satellite around the deep low to the south.  A prefrontal trough and front will cross Western Australia and much of South Australia during Saturday. The Indian Ocean high will ridge in across southern Western Australia behind the frontal system. Widespread showers are likely with and behind this front, particularly over southern parts of Western Australia and in the cold air following.

Northwesterly winds will strengthen over the southeast ahead of the front as the pressure gradient tightens between the high and the front during Saturday. The deepening of the prefrontal trough and greater moisture infeed from the Indian Ocean may lead to some heavy falls during later Saturday.  Much of Australia north of the baric ridge (~ 30°S) will remain fine except for some coastal areas in the far north.

Areas to watch:  The cold pool in the western Bight is being driven northeast around the upper trough by the polar jet should be watched to see where it makes landfall.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Increasing northwesterly winds in the west through Saturday. Isolated showers developing in the southwest. Showers developing about the Alps falling as snow later in the weekend.
NSW:  A cold night inland with frost over higher parts, especially in the north. Strengthening winds and increasing cloud in the south, with showers falling as snow developing later.
Queensland: Isolated showers about Cape York.  Mostly fine elsewhere.
NT: Mainly fine except for the northeast corner of the Top End where there may be isolated showers.
WA:  Scattered showers with a front crossing the southwest Friday night and moving east.  Showers, along the coast and inland near the coast, becoming isolated to the west.  Fine in the north with some high cloud over the Pilbara.
SA:  Strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of a front moving through much of the state during Saturday.  Scattered showers with the front becoming isolated to the west. Possible storms with hail in the south behind the front.
Tasmania:  Strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of the front.   Scattered showers in the west, spreading east and falling as snow about the higher peaks during Sunday.

Moisture feeds towards the northeast of the continent from a complex area of convection in the northern hemisphere. Humidities have risen over Cape York and the Top End as a result of this infeed. Away from the coast, much of central and northern Australia remains cloudfree.

An area of vorticity is located  in the central Bight west of Tasmania.

Discussion:  The highs over the eastern Australian longitudes will continue to edge eastward with the southernmost centre moving east more rapidly than the centre over New South Wales. The low in the Tasman will gradually weaken as it moves east. The low in the southwestern Bight is likely to track northeast for a period on Friday as it 'satellites' around the low to its south - there is another area of vorticity to its north - see 'Areas to watch' below.

A front will cross the southwest of Western Australia during Friday bringing showers to the southwest, while the strong high in the Indian Ocean looks to weaken as it moves towards the west coast.

Areas to watch: The area of vorticity in the Bight located near ~43°S (at 8pm Thursday night) for movement towards the northeast. Looks most likely to 'satellite' around the low in the southern Bight., but may move northeast initially.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered showers moving from the west during Thursday night, then clearing from the west on Friday. Snow developing on the Alps later Friday.
NSW:  Cold nights along the tablelands with widespread frosts in the north ahead of the cloudband moving through the south of the state. Showers in the south with the front, falling as snow on the Alps later.
Queensland: Mainly fine except for the far northeast tropical coast and Cape York which may see isolated showers. Cold nights along the ranges with frosts likely in the south.
NT: Cloudy periods along the northeast coast with isolated showers.  Fine elsewhere.
WA:  Northwesterly winds strengthening in the southwest of the state ahead of a front.  Scattered showers becoming more widespread through the south for a brief period then contracting to the far southwest again and becoming isolated.
SA:  Isolated showers along the exposed parts of the coast.  Fine elsewhere.  Overnight fogs likely in the southeast.
Tasmania:  Widespread showers in the west Thursday night spreading to the east during Friday but becoming isolated. Light snow later over higher peaks, mainly in the west.

Discussion:  The area of vorticity / cold pool moving across New South Wales is likely to deepen into a low as it moves into more favourable conditions over the Tasman Sea. The high pressure over eastern Australia will remain 'sandwiched' between the developing low in the Tasman and the front in the Bight during Thursday while continuing to move east.  The baric trough is likely to move north again to lie near to 55°S in the southern Bight southwest of the high under a broad upper trough. A strengthening high over the Indian Ocean will approach the west of the continent during Friday. Cross equatorial moisture is crossing the northeast of the continent and being drawn into the 'shear zone' over the Coral Sea, before heading southeast.

Areas to watch: Congesting cumulus have been sighted over the Top End!! No, not an early start to the 'Buildup', this is a normal sign that a change in the pattern is not too far away.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  A cold night in areas under clear skies. Isolated fogs in the south. A full-height (as in surface to tropopause) ridge moving through the west of the state overnight Wednesday and early Thursday with strong warm advection through the middle levels ahead of the front approaching from the Bight later Thursday / early Friday. Showers in the far east clearing Thursday, with showers redeveloping during the afternoon in the west and spreading to central areas later.
NSW:  A cold night inland under clear skies. Scattered showers with and following the trough moving through the central coast and tablelands Wednesday night and the northeast of the state early Thursday. Showers becoming isolated through Thursday.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the far northeastern tropical coast and Cape York.  Dry elsewhere.
NT: An increase in humidity along the northern coast may lead to isolated showers along the northern and eastern Top End coasts.  Fine elsewhere.
WA:  Possible isolated showers in the Pilbara and Eucla. Showers with isolated storms associated with a front crossing the southwest during Thursday.
SA:  Increasing cloud in the west, spreading east to reach the southeastern border later in the day. Strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of the front with scattered showers, mainly in the south. Isolated showers along the exposed coasts following the front. Cold night inland.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers Wednesday night with isolated light snowfalls. Conditions clearing except in the south of the state where scattered showers remain likely.  A cold night with widespread frosts. Strengthening northwesterly winds in the west with conditions becoming milder ahead of the front.

The development of an area of vorticity near Mt Gambier in the trough moving across the southeast of the continent has triggered scattered storms with some heavy falls in southwest Victoria later Tuesday, with more likely through Bass Strait and over northern Tasmania tonight and early Wednesday.

A weak plume of tropical moisture has reached south through the Arafura Sea to the Top End of the Northern Territory, and can be traced as far east as Cape York. 

Discussion:  The low near New Zealand will begin to weaken through Wednesday. The area of vorticity near Mt Gambier is likely to move in a generally easterly direction & looks to enhance shower and storm activity over the Bass Strait area and adjacent coasts Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

The high in the Bight will move slowly east through Wednesday, while an upper ridge will also move across the southeast of the continent - the combination of both surface and upper highs will bring a return to rather more stable weather (although not necessarily clear skies) to much of the southeast following the passage of the front / trough. In general, the continent north of the baric ridge, remains mainly fine with only patchy cloud in northeastern coastal areas and isolated showers over the northeast Top End and the northeast tropical coast of Queensland.

The longwave trough approaching the southwest of Western Australia continues to deepen as it moves east, while the thermal trough to its west extends its influence to near 25°S over the Indian Ocean.

Areas to watch: An area of middle level cloud has formed over southern Western Australia and should be watched for the next 24 hours......it seems to be linked to the trough currently passing across the southeast and marks a weak baroclinic zone.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Isolated storms in the south on Tuesday night with the passage of the front, with the chance of hail.  Showers with isolated heavier falls in much of the west of the state Tuesday night, extending east overnight and then clearing through much of the state during Wednesday. Snow on the peaks.
NSW:  Patchy rain developing in the south, falling as snow over the higher peaks. A deep south-southwesterly flow developing behind the front with scattered showers, mainly in the south.  Remaining mainly fine in the north until later in the day.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the northeast coast and Cape York.   Fine elsewhere.
NT: Chance of isolated showers in the northeast.  Fine elsewhere.
WA:  Strengthening northwesterly winds in the southwest ahead of a front which will move across much of the southern parts during Wednesday.  Scattered storms in the south with some heavy falls possible, mainly near the coast.  Fine in the north.
SA:  Becoming fine after scattered showers and isolated storms in the southeast during Tuesday night, clearing as the high becomes established in the Bight.   Increasing cloud in the west of the state as the next front approaches on Thursday. A cold night with frosts inland.
Tasmania: Showers in the north and east Tuesday night with the likelihood of isolated storms, especially near Bass Strait.  Snowfalls at higher levels early. Clearing during Wednesday with only isolated showers remaining in the east later.

High cloud coming into the west of the Bight is responding to a strengthening of the sub-tropical jet south of Western Australia, while the large area of cloud over southeastern Australia is mostly middle and upper level, marking the location of a weak upper trough, with only isolated light falls during Monday in the west of Victoria and the southeast of South Australia.

Moisture over the equatorial area east of 140°E is steadily moving south towards tropical eastern Australia.

Discussion:  The high over eastern Australia will weaken and edge northward during Tuesday, while there will be a strengthening of the high to the west and a seesaw effect with the western section of the baric trough slipping southward.  A weak front will follow the middle level trough and cross the southeastern corner with scattered light showers & some further falls of snow above 1450m over the Alps. This middle level trough is still feeding some of its moisture from the Indian Ocean, but this flow is continuing to weaken.

A deep low near to 55°S (964hPa at 10am EST) southwest of Western Australia is bringing substantially colder air from the Southern Ocean and looks to affect the southeast of the continent and Tasmania late in the week.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered light showers or drizzle in the west extending east, but mainly on and south of the ranges. Showers becoming more isolated during Tuesday with the passage of the front with scattered snowfalls over the Alps above 1450m.
NSW:  The passage of the front will trigger scattered falls, mainly in the south falling as snow over the Alps above 1450m. Only isolated showers elsewhere. Frosts are likely over areas experiencing clear conditions ahead of the approaching cloudband.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the northeast tropical coast.  Cloud increasing through the south of the state, but little if any rain is likely.
NT:  Isolated cloud over the northeast, with the chance of a shower.   Patchy high cloud in the south.  Any showers from this cloud are not likely to reach the ground.
WA:  Fine in the north, only isolated showers in the south except over the Southwest Capes early Tuesday where falls may be more scattered. Cloud increasing in the southwest ahead of the next front, with strengthening northwesterly winds.
SA:  Showers in the southeast Monday night. Cloud and showers increasing in the south with the passage of a weak front during Tuesday with only isolated showers away from the coast, mostly not reaching the ground.
Tasmania: Cloudy. Showers in the west, tending to periods of rain and spreading east, before becoming scattered Tuesday. Possible snow over higher parts behind the passage of the front during Tuesday.

The baric trough (South Ocean lows) remains near to 60°S while the baric ridge across the continent is located near to 35°S and is becoming weaker in the Indian Ocean. The front passing through the Bight has captured the trough which has been moving slowly southeast towards the west coast for the past few days and on Sunday afternoon it was located just south of Esperance with a thickening of the cloud band.

Discussion:  The high over eastern Australia may strengthen slightly but will remain slow moving through Monday with widespread frosts overnight Sunday, some severe, in cloud free areas of the southeast, particularly away from the coast and at higher levels. This high will cut the low likely to form in the Tasman Sea near New Zealand off. 

A weak upper trough will pass through the Bight during Monday which may help to intensify the surface trough as it moves east - weak infeed from the subtropical Indian Ocean into this system is likely to continue. 

A deep low well southwest of Western Australia (963hPa 10am AEST) will move into the southern Bight during later Tuesday / Wednesday, bringing with it significantly colder air from the Southern Ocean and affecting the southwest of Western Australia midweek.

Areas to watch: The trough and cloud area over the Bight on Sunday night as it moves east for signs of development for the next 24 hours. The cross equatorial moisture surge may trigger less isolated showers than we have seen across the northeast of the Top End and Cape York.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  A cold night under clear skies.  Frosts, particularly north of the ranges, some severe. High cloud increasing from the west during Monday, only isolated showers along the southwest coast.
NSW:  Mainly fine across the state with light winds and widespread frosts in cloudfree areas, some severe.  A fine day with only the chance of an isolated shower in the far northeast later in the day.
Queensland: Scattered showers over Cape York and the northeast tropical coasts. Fine elsewhere.
NT:  Isolated showers possible about the northeast coast.  Fine elsewhere.
WA:  Fine in the north of the state.  Only isolated coastal showers in the far southwest corner. Possible showers early in the southeast as the trough moves out of the state.
SA:  Increasing high cloud, showers in the west mainly not reaching the ground.  Fogs in the southeast.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in the south and west on Monday, increasing through the day with the approach of a front.

A high is located in the head of the Bight (a bit far south for this time of the year) and to its west the trough off the coast of Western Australia remains quasi-stationery with widespread, but only very light falls are reaching the ground in the west of the state as far north as the Pilbara. The Southern Ocean lows (baric trough) - 951hPa at 10am AEST, have correspondingly moved south and now lie close to 60°S.  A weak area of moisture over the Timor Sea is approaching the Kimberley coast.

Discussion:  The high will strengthen and move east to lie over the southeast of the continent, bringing the expectation of very cold conditions during Saturday night north of the ranges in Victoria and in the east of South Australia.  The front over the southeastern corner of New South Wales will move northwards along the coast and colder air will become established over the southeast of the state and extend further north along the coast and adjacent ranges to near the Queensland border.

The trough off the west coast will be captured by the front moving towards the southwest of Western Australia during Sunday, and this will help feed more moisture onto the coast initially before the system weakens later in the weekend. Another high will approach the west early in the new week.

Areas to watch: We may see a cross equatorial surge of moisture across Cape York and into the Coral Sea during the next 72 hours.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Winds decreasing except over the Alps.  Scattered showers along the ranges falling as snow at higher levels.  Isolated showers along the coast clearing through Sunday.  A cold night north of the ranges with scattered severe frosts.
NSW:  Showers in southern and coastal regions during Sunday morning, falling as snow over the Alps. Showers likely to extend north during the day along the ranges and coast. Isolated storms are possible. Mainly fine in the north away from the coast.
Queensland: Isolated showers along exposed parts of the northeastern tropical coast & over the north of Cape York.
NT:  Scattered cloud over the northeast and west.  Only isolated showers likely in the northeast.
WA:  Light falls continuing along the west coast, and in the southwest, spreading east and becoming isolated in the west later Sunday.
SA:  Isolated showers over exposed coasts.  Cold night inland, particularly in the east with frosts.
Tasmania: Showers continuing in the west and north, showers in other parts of the state clearing during Sunday.  Snowfalls over higher parts Saturday night and early Sunday, becoming isolated later at higher levels. Scattered showers continuing in the southwest.

There is a generally westerly movement of a broad area of convergence over the Coral Sea and near Fiji which is pushing moisture onto the Queensland coast.  The upper trough continues to lie through the Tasman and into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Discussion:  The area of higher pressure over Australia will remain over the eastern seaboard at around the 30°S parallel during Saturday. The front will cross southeastern Australia behind a weak prefrontal trough. The trough lying off the west coast will continue to edge southeast towards the South West Land Division through the weekend.  The infeed from the Indian Ocean remains but has weakened substantially during the past day or so & is expected to continue to weaken through the weekend.  Patchy rain from this cloudband is likely over the Central West and Gascoyne, extending into the Goldfields during Saturday but with only light falls.

The high will locate over the entire southeast later in the weekend with mainly fine conditions except for south of the ranges and over the Alps in Victoria, the Alps in New South Wales and the west coast and highlands of Tasmania, which will continue to experience scattered showers with some snowfalls down to near 1100m during Saturday.

The trough through Queensland will move slowly east during Saturday, but showers remain only likely along the exposed coasts

Areas to watch: The tropical depression in the Philippine Sea for further development.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Strengthening northwesterly-westerly winds.  Showers in the west, spreading east through Saturday, associated with a front moving across the state.  Showers in the south with possible hail & thunder near the coast, particularly in the southwest.  Showers developing over the Alps with snowfalls to lower levels later Saturday. Isolated showers to follow in the southwest.
NSW:  Increasing cloud with strengthening northwesterly-westerly winds through Saturday.  Isolated showers are possible with a prefrontal trough moving through the east of the state, showers with and to the west of the front with snowfalls redeveloping about the Alps, falling to near 1100m later in the day.
Queensland:  Isolated showers about the top of Cape York and possibly along the exposed northeast coast.  Mainly fine elsewhere.
NT:  Possible cloudy periods in the northeast with the chance of a light shower.  Fine elsewhere.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Showers through the central west and western Pilbara and extending southeast through the Goldfields during Saturday.  Only light falls expected except near to the trough where heavier local falls are possible.
SA:  Showers in the south and southeast clearing early Saturday to fine conditions with only isolated showers along the exposed coasts. Remaining mainly cloudy through much of the state.
Tasmania:  Strengthening northwesterly-westerly winds reaching galeforce at times, shifting west-southwesterly through Saturday.  Widespread showers over the west and north spreading east with snow falling over higher parts, to lower levels during Saturday.

An impressive cloudband across Western Australia and through the Bight is associated with the subtropical jet but is showing signs of weakening as it moves east.  Ahead of this, warm temperatures have resulted from warm advection from the northwest. Widespread rain (up to 30mm) over western and southwestern Western Australia has been recorded during today from this cloudband.

Discussion:  The surface high over New South Wales will edge northeast while the front approaches southeastern Australia during Friday. Strengthening northwesterly winds are likely over southern South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania with increasing high cloud. The Southern Ocean lows will continue to move through the south of the Bight near to 50 - 55°S with strengthening northwesterly winds through the Bight at all levels. The cold pool in the southwestern Bight will remain between 40 and 50°S as it moves east.

The baric ridge continues to lie across the continent near to 30°S, but its influence over the west will continue to be eroded by the trough extending northwest to the Indian Ocean and the cell to the west of Australia remains only moderate in strength. This Indian Ocean trough is likely to remain in the area for a few more days while its source of moisture remains to the south of Indonesia.

The area of cloud over northern Queensland is likely to remain while the jet lies over the area and the trough over the Solomons & New Caledonia slows the eastward movement of this jet over Queensland.  An area of cloud at lower levels over the northwest Gulf of Carpentaria appears to be feeding moisture upwards and into this cloud streak. This area could prove worth studying over the next day or two. 

Areas to watch: An area of convection over the Philippines should be monitored for signs of increased organisation over the next day or so.  The broad area of convection currently over the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia is edging southwest into the Coral Sea.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Strengthening northwest-westerly winds developing across the state and becoming galeforce over higher parts.  High cloud moving into the state. Isolated showers developing over the Alps with the chance of sleet developing.
NSW:  Conditions over much of the state will remain mainly fine after a cold night. Strengthening northwesterly winds in the south, with isolated showers later in the day over the Alps with possible sleet.
Queensland:   Isolated showers along the tropical northeast coast and about Cape York are possible
NT:  Cloud over the northeast with possible showers in the area. Fine in the south.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Patchy rain continuing over much of the southern half of the state, extending east through Friday and then clearing in the southwest.   Some substantial totals are likely.  Showers remaining about the west coast.
SA:  Increasing high cloud from the southwest with strengthening northwesterly winds & increasing temperatures. Only scattered showers are likely in the south later in the day.
Tasmania:  Strong northwesterly winds with turbulence in the lee of the ranges. Showers developing in the west and extending east through Friday.

Discussion:  The high will move eastward and strengthen during Thursday with a ridge to the west.   Northwesterly winds will strengthen along the South Australian and Tasmania west coast and southwestern Victoria as the pressure gradient tightens with the eastward movement of the front through the Bight. Increasing cloud crossing the west of Western Australia will bring widespread rain areas to the coast and adjacent inland areas between the Pilbara (later in the day in the north) and the SW Land Division.  Ahead of this trough, northwesterly winds and warm advection in the middle levels mixing down to the surface will increase temperatures.

Isolated showers are once again likely about Cape York & possibly near to or just north of the Top End coast with a weak trough continuing to remain in the area during Thursday. Most of the northern parts of Australia with the exception of these areas should remain fine.  The trough moving through the Tasman Sea towards New Zealand looks likely to deepen through the next day or so and, with the intensification of a middle level cold pool, conditions look favourable for widespread falls over the South Island, with some good falls of snow on the Alps.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:   Isolated showers along the southwest coast, clearing through Thursday.  Mainly fine north of the ranges after local frosts and fogs.  Some drizzle over the higher parts of the Alps.
NSW:  A cold night with some frosts over higher parts.  Mainly fine except in the southeast, where some early fog or drizzle is likely over the Alps in particular.
Queensland:  Mainly fine except about Cape York and the exposed eastern coasts.  Cool nights, mild days.
NT: Fine except for a possible isolated shower about the north coast, particularly in the northeast.
WA:  Remaining fine in the north.  Increasing cloud in the south during Wednesday night, and developing further north to the Pilbara on Thursday.  Widespread rain likely from this cloudband, with some heavy falls and thunderstorms possible, mainly in the south.  Warmer conditions ahead of the trough.
SA:  Northwesterly winds strengthening in the west late in the day. Isolated showers along the windward coasts, contracting to the southeast of the state and then clearing through Thursday.  Fine in the north with light winds.
Tasmania:  Strengthening northwesterly winds in the west, showery, mainly fine elsewhere.

A weak trough remains over the Arafura Sea while a patch of high cloud over northeast Queensland   and back to the west coast to Broome identifies the location of the upper jet which is bringing moisture across the continent from the Indian Ocean.

Discussion:  The high over   Australia will remain slow moving and will continue to bring mainly fine conditions to most of the continent during Wednesday as it moves toward the east coast. Fronts will pass south of this high affecting southeastern Australia, while a front will approach southwestern Western Australia later Wednesday / early Thursday.  The front moving across the southeast of the continent should move into the Tasman Sea during Wednesday after affecting southern New South Wales and Victoria and bringing further snowfalls to the Alps.  Cooler air will become established over the southeastern states during Tuesday and Wednesday.

A trough over the subtropical Indian Ocean looks to deepen and extend to the southeast during Wednesday and Thursday, bringing some moisture towards the Western Australian coast with showers likely to develop along the west coast to the Pilbara later in the day. 

Areas to watch: there is a buildup of moisture to the southwest of Sumatra, with the subtropical jet becoming more meridional in the Indian Ocean and reaching as far north as ~15°S.  This area should be monitored for moisture moving southeast towards Australia.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers, mainly in southern and mountain areas, occasionally heavy, mainly along the coast.  Snowfalls redeveloping, with occasional heavy falls,   over the Alps and lowering overnight.  Mainly fine north of the ranges during Wednesday, showers scattered in the south.
NSW:  Snowfalls redeveloping over the Alps during Tuesday night and into the early part of Wednesday. Winds turning westerly in the south and strengthening. Turbulence east of the ranges, particularly in the south Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Showers, mainly along the ranges as the front crosses the state. Remaining fine in the north after a cold night with frosts.
Queensland:  Light showers along the central and northeast coasts are likely while a weak upper trough over western Queensland should remain mostly inactive.
NT: Patchy high cloud crossing the state.
WA:  Mainly fine in central areas with increasing cloud in the southwest and west during Wednesday with showers developing likely Thursday as far north as the Pilbara and extending inland.  Northwesterly winds strengthening in the southwest.
SA:  Isolated showers along the south coast with an onshore flow, becoming fine during Wednesday.
Tasmania:  Widespread showers in the western half of the state, with snowfalls to lower levels Tuesday night and early Wednesday.  Isolated storms. Clearing Wednesday before the approach of another front.  Westerly winds.

Discussion:  The eastern end of the baric ridge across the continent will edge further to the south during Tuesday and the weakening front will cross the southeastern corner, bringing scattered light showers and snowfalls over higher parts, particularly in Tasmania.  A moist southeasterly is likely to bring scattered showers to Cape York. Elsewhere to the north of the baric ridge, conditions will remain mainly fine with a southeast-easterly flow across the continent.   Some upper high cloud is likely to cross the West Australian coast over the west Kimberley with the upper jet.

A satellite low will move through the Bight past   the southwest of Tasmania enhancing showery conditions over the southwest corner. Colder air, which is associated with the upper trough, will move across the state during Tuesday with highland snowfalls likely.

Areas to watch: there is a buildup of moisture to the southwest of Sumatra, with the subtropical jet becoming more meridional in the Indian Ocean and reaching as far north as ~15°S.  This area should be monitored for moisture moving southeast towards Australia.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered showers developing in the west, moving east and becoming more isolated through Tuesday. Showers over the Alps falling as snow over the higher peaks, with snow levels dropping later especially on exposed western slopes. Strengthening northwesterly winds.
NSW:  Isolated showers over the northeast coast Monday night clearing to a fine day.  A cold night inland with widespread frosts. Fine in the north. The front moving through the south of the state should reach the coast later in the day with scattered showers, falling as snow over the Alps to lower levels later, to follow in the southwesterly flow.
Queensland:  Isolated showers mainly over Cape York in a moist southeasterly flow with a weak trough developing over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Mainly fine elsewhere with cold nights in the south with frosts likely.
NT: Mainly fine. Cold nights in the south.
WA:  Mainly fine throughout.  Some high cloud over the western Kimberley. Cool in the far southwest with only very isolated showers near the Capes.
SA:  Showers over the southeast.  Mainly fine elsewhere. Cold nights inland.
Tasmania:  Strengthening northwesterly winds Scattered showers becoming widespread in  the west with snowfalls reaching to lower levels during Tuesday, then spreading throughout later in the day.  Possible storms.

Discussion:  The baric ridge will remain near to 30°S with a centre of high pressure over eastern Australia extending a ridge to the southeast.  Systems remain slow moving with the low still located just east of New Zealand. The low in the western Bight, which is associated with the upper trough, will deepen and move southeast during Monday, with the cold front bringing showers to the southern Western Australian coast and strengthening northwesterly winds along the South Australian and western Tasmanian coasts during Monday.  

Some moisture is moving into the Timor and Arafura Seas with a cross-equatorial surge, but generally, the area north of the baric ridge will remain fine.  Much of northeastern Australia has lacked in atmospheric moisture during the past month or two with the more northerly location of the baric ridge allowing moist southeasterly winds to penetrate across the coast over Cape York, while southwards of this area, winds have tended more south - southwesterly. This has also seen colder nights in the north than 'average'.

Areas to watch: there is a buildup of moisture to the southwest of Sumatra, with the subtropical jet becoming more meridional in the Indian Ocean and reaching as far north as ~15°S.  This area should be monitored for moisture moving southeast towards Australia.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Isolated showers over the southwest coast Sunday night, clearing through Monday and redeveloping later. Mainly fine north of the ranges with patchy frosts.
NSW:  Southerly winds along the coast, and a trough just to the east will see scattered showers along the central and northern coasts, clearing later Monday.  A cold night inland with scattered frost.
Queensland:  Mainly fine except for isolated showers over the eastern coast of Cape York.  Cool nights with frost along the ranges.
NT: Mainly fine.  Cold nights in the south.
WA:  Mainly fine in the north.  Some high cloud moving into the Pilbara.   Showers along the south coast, becoming more frequent with the passage of the front Sunday night and then becoming isolated except in the far southwest.
SA: Early showers in the southeast, clearing. Scattered showers developing in the west later Monday and moving east, mainly in the south. Strengthening winds ahead of the front. Fine in the north with cold nights.
Tasmania:  Showers during Sunday night, mainly in the west and north, clearing early Monday before the passage of another front during Monday. Conditions becoming colder Tuesday.

Much of southeastern Australia has experienced warm air in the middle layers mixing down to the surface, with many locations recording above average maxima. Most of the precipitation appeared to be virga. A trough extends northward from this front into western Queensland. Cold nights were again widespread in New South Wales.

A low in the far southern Bight (960hPa at 10am AEST) extends a warm front to the northeast through the Bight, closely followed by a cold front just to its west. Another low and dual front combination is located to the west. A ridge of high pressure is over Western Australia, once again near to 30°S, which has weakened as it has moved east.

Discussion:  The front, which will continue to move slowly as its eastward passage is blocked, will cross Victoria, western New South Wales  and Tasmania during Saturday night / early Sunday, and will have crossed the northeast New South Wales coast by Sunday night. Warmer air will move across the southeast of the continent early in the new week following a cooling trend during Sunday when snow showers about the Alps will redevelop. Showers are likely over much of the southeast, extending into the northern parts of New South Wales behind the front in a southwesterly flow. The trough (mainly inactive) over central Queensland will move east during Sunday to be close to the coast by Sunday night.

The high pressure centre to the west will move northeast into central parts of the continent, while the belt of low pressure will again lie between 45 - 55°S and a series of fronts (including warm fronts), mainly weak, will affect southern Australia for the next few days.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered showers in the west during Saturday night extending eastwards with the passage of the front and then contracting south of the ranges and near to the coast.  Showers developing over the Alps, falling as snow at higher levels initially, but to lower levels following the front.  Isolated storms are possible, mainly over Bass Strait Saturday night and early Sunday.  Mainly fine in the north with scattered frosts.
NSW:  Showers, mainly in the south of the state, Saturday night, falling as snow showers over the Alps, extending north and east with the passage of the front during Sunday. Colder southwesterly winds to follow with scattered showers.
Queensland:  Increasing cloud in the south with a shower or two possible.   Isolated showers over the far northeast tropical coast.
NT: Mostly fine. 
WA:  Mainly fine except for scattered showers over the far southwest, becoming more frequent with the passage of fronts.
SA: Scattered showers in the south with possible hail near the coast Saturday night  will then redevelop later Sunday. Fine in the north.
Tasmania:  Cool and showery Saturday night with possible hail and thunder in the west.  Clearing through Sunday briefly before showers redevelop later in the day with the approach of another front. Possible snow showers on higher parts.

Advection of warm and rather dry air in the mid levels precedes the front moving through the Bight and this air mixing down to the surface is resulting in a dry north - northwesterly flow.

A slow moving low remains over the New Zealand area with moderate to heavy falls being experienced particularly in the North Island during Friday.

Discussion:  During Friday night and Saturday, the front in the Bight will cross South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania, with strengthening northwesterly winds with a brief warming trend ahead. The passage of the front will bring colder, showery conditions to southeastern Australia during Saturday, ahead of a ridge moving into our longitudes later in the weekend.

The baric ridge across the Australian continent will continue to lie at near to 30°S with the trough moving through eastern Australia dissecting it.  The baric ridge will remain stronger over the west of the continent and the Indian Ocean. Conditions to its north will remain mainly fine with only isolated showers over the far northeast Queensland tropical coast expected.  Cold nights in New South Wales and Queensland are once again likely under the influence of the high - record minima are possible again.  Passing fronts will continue to affect the southwestern corner of Western Australia during the weekend maintaining showery conditions.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Strengthening north-northwesterly winds in the west Friday night ahead of the front moving into the west of the state on Saturday morning. Isolated storms mainly in the southwest.  Showers becoming more widespread with the passage of the front, contracting to the south following the front. Showers over the Alps late in the day, likely falling as snow to lower levels later Saturday / early Sunday.
NSW:  Strengthening northwesterly winds in the south ahead of a front moving through the south of the state during Saturday and reaching the coast on Sunday. Showers, falling as snow over the Alps redeveloping later Saturday with falls to lower levels.   Mainly fine in the north after a cold night.  Widespread heavy frosts over many areas.
Queensland:  Mainly fine except for isolated showers along the far northeast tropical coast.  Cool nights, mild days. Light winds.
NT: Mainly fine.
WA:  Fine in the north and west.  Cold conditions in the south with scattered showers, more widespread in the southwest. 
SA: Increasing cloud in the west with strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of a front crossing the state Friday night / Saturday morning. Showers developing in the west and spreading through the south of the state.  Isolated storms in the south near to and west of the front, with possible hail.
Tasmania:  Increasing cloud through Saturday with strengthening northwesterly winds.  Showers developing in the west and north later spreading east. Isolated storms.

The low in the Tasman is now analysed at all levels, has deepened and become slow moving and is influencing the eastern Tasman Sea and New Zealand with heavy rain particularly over the eastern parts of the North Island.  The lows in the Southern Ocean were 962 and 968hPa (10am AEST) and were lying between 55 and 60°S.

Discussion:  The baric ridge is again shifting north towards 30°S and the Southern Ocean lows are also moving slightly north, re-establishing a general westerly flow over the southern Australian latitudes.   A broad longwave trough is located southwest of Western Australia with a strong band of westerlies to its north and the polar jet making its appearance and extending to the northeast on its western side.

The front moving through the southeast corner will move into the Tasman Sea, while another front will cross Western Australia and much of South Australia during Friday. Strong winds will continue and warm advection in the middle layers will be experienced during Friday preceding this second front with some of this warmer air mixing down towards the surface with low level turbulence.

Mainly fine north of the baric ridge with the exception of the northeast tropical Queensland coast and the far northeast of the Top End.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers, tending to light rain at times in the west with the passage of a front Thursday night.  Isolated storms in the south. Clearing through Friday with winds restrengthening in the west later Friday ahead of the next front on Saturday.
NSW:  Strengthening northwesterly winds and increasing cloud ahead of an approaching front.  Fine in the central and north with light winds and cold nights, with widespread frosts, especially over the ranges.
Queensland:  Cold nights in the southeast with widespread fronts, extending north along the ranges.  Isolated showers in the northeast.  Fine elsewhere.
NT: Fine with the exception of isolated showers over the northeast of the Top End.
WA:  Fine in the north. Widespread showers in the southwest and southern parts, tending to rain periods during Thursday night, with southwesterly winds remaining strong to gale force near the southern coast through Friday. Isolated storms in the south.
SA: Scattered showers and storms in the southeast Thursday night, clearing through Friday with strong winds, strengthening again ahead of the next front later Friday. Rain developing in the far west. Fine in the north after a cold night with frosts.
Tasmania:  Widespread showers, particularly in the west and north, tending to rain periods, and spreading east before clearing temporarily later Friday.   Conditions becoming cooler as a series of fronts moves across the state. 

The baric ridge is somewhat fractured across our longitudes by the low in the Tasman and the front extending through Western Australia. A strong high lies to the west of the continent near to 32°S. A continuation of the cross-equatorial flow from Indonesia to the southeast across the Indian Ocean, continues to feed some moisture into the trough preceding the front moving through Western Australia. Pronounced lee wave cloud was located over Tasmania in the deep southwesterly flow.

Discussion:  The upper circulation over the Australian longitudes is becoming more 'meridional'. The high over New South Wales will remain slow moving through Thursday, and is likely to be edged to the northeast, with the deepening low moving towards New Zealand and the high ridging more strongly to the southeast to cut it off.  The steepening pressure gradient between the high and the front to the west of the high will strengthen northwesterly winds over South Australia during Thursday.

The cold air field southwest of Western Australia is beginning to weaken a little as it moves northeast.  A wave low developing on the western side of the broad trough will move northeast also and affect the southwest of Western Australia later on Thursday.  The low pressure belt will remain around 50°S.

Definition: 'meridional' - the north-south component of airflow is pronounced ie: the amplitude of the atmospheric waves (ridges and troughs) increases.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of a trough and frontal system.  Increasing cloud with showers in the west, tending to periods of rain there later. Remaining mainly fine north of the ranges.
NSW:  Strengthening winds over the west with light winds over much of the central and north of the state. Mainly fine throughout.
Queensland:  Isolated showers over the northeast tropical coast. Fine through the remainder of the state. Cool to cold nights in the south with frosts.
NT: Fine, with patchy cloud about the Top End coast. Isolated showers in the northeast.
WA:  Fine in the north. Showers in the south, with isolated storms in the southwest, moving east and becoming more isolated through Thursday, but redeveloping in the southwest later with a further strengthening of the winds.
SA: Increasing cloud in the southwest with strengthening northwesterly winds. Isolated showers in the south becoming scattered with the passage of the front,   Coastal showers remaining in the following moist onshore flow.
Tasmania:  Strengthening northwesterly winds with increasing shower activity particularly in the west and north later Thursday. 

Discussion:  The high over the north of the Bight on Monday will continue to move east through New South Wales during Wednesday. The upper trough to the west of the Australian continent looks to deepen, with the cold airfield in the middle layers associated with it continuing to move towards the northeast. A wave low is likely to form in the western Bight, but is likely to slide southeast. 

The front currently moving through New South Wales is drawing some of its moisture from a cross - equatorial surge from Indonesia into the Indian Ocean.  A cooler west-southwesterly surface flow will follow these fronts and isolated showers over exposed parts of  the eastern ranges of Victoria and New South Wales as well as the southern the New South Wales coast are likely to persist.   Western Tasmania will see a continuation of showery conditions.

The family of lows in the Tasman Sea will influence New Zealand during Wednesday.

Areas to monitor: The convective area near to the Solomon Islands has weakened substantially after being sheared to the southeast, but is still apparent in the area (a low-latitude TC like Vamei within 5° of the equator is a remote possibility).

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered showers becoming isolated and contracting to the east. Isolated showers, falling as snow of the higher peaks. Winds moderating through the day.  Mainly fine north of the ranges after a cold night.
NSW:  Cooler conditions will become established over the south of the state, with isolated showers on the exposed peaks, with only isolated show showers. Cold with frosts, some possibly severe in the north.
Queensland:  Mainly fine except for isolated showers along the northeast coast.  A cool night, especially in the south and along the ranges.
NT: Mainly fine with only isolated showers about the northeast coast. A possible congesting cumulus.
WA:  Fine in the north of the state with scattered showers in the southwest and south becoming more widespread with the approach of a stronger front. Strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of the front, possible storms with hail with and following the front.
SA:  Mainly fine.  Fogs in the southeast & frosts likely inland, particularly in the northeast of the state. Strengthening northwesterly winds in the west later.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west, south and north Tuesday night and during the early part of Wednesday with isolated light snowfalls over higher peaks, clearing, showers only scattered in the east.

A series of troughs and fronts is embedded in a zonal westerly flow through the Bight.

Discussion:  The troughs and fronts within the zonal westerly flow which is currently affecting a large part of southern Australia, particularly in the central and eastern regions, will move east and affect us during the next day or two. The baric ridge will likely maintain its approximate position near to 30°S to the north of this area and remain relatively weak, while the Southern Ocean lows to the south will continue to locate further north than is 'usual, with a resultant strengthening of the winds between these two areas.

A series of fronts will cross the southeast of the country during the week, triggering widespread showers throughout, falling as snow at higher levels.

Definition: 'zonal' wind / flow tends to lie closely aligned to parallels of latitude ie: the west-east component of motion is most pronounced.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Strengthening northwesterly winds, reaching gale force at time in southern and mountain areas, turning west - southwesterly later. Showers in the southwest, becoming more frequent through Tuesday and spreading east with the passage of fronts.Isolated snowfalls over the peaks. Chance of a storm in the south.  Mainly fine north of the ranges.
NSW:  A strengthening west - northwesterly flow ahead of a front moving through the south.  Showers with and behind the front, falling as snow over the higher peaks. Lighter winds and mainly fine in the north.
Queensland:  Mainly fine but with isolated showers over the northeast coast.  Cool in the south with cold nights inland with frosts.
NT: Fine except for isolated showers in the northeast of the Top End.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Scattered showers in the southwest, becoming more frequent later in the day.
SA:  Scattered showers over exposed coasts of the southeast, becoming more widespread with the passage of the front.  Mainly fine elsewhere.  Cold nights inland with frosts.
Tasmania:  Widespread showers, tending to periods of rain in the west and north with isolated storms and hail. Snowfalls on the higher peaks likely later. Northwesterly winds strengthening to gale force.

The lows (956 and 959hPa) in the Southern Ocean low pressure belt are currently located between 50°S and 55°S. A series of fronts is moving through the Bight and a deep northwest-southwesterly flow continues to dominate the southern part of Australia.

Discussion:  The high over eastern Australia will continue to move east through Monday with the first front crossing the southeast of the continent. A weak wave low is likely to develop southwest of Tasmania and move southeast. The next high will move in from the Indian Ocean, with the baric ridge maintaining its position at ~30°S.  The deep northwest - southwesterly flow will continue to dominate southern Australia through Monday.

Northwesterly winds will strengthen through Monday over the southeast corner ahead of the approaching front. Showers will become more frequent particularly near to the southwest coast and along the ranges of Victoria while the west coast and Bass Strait coast of Tasmania being favoured. The southwest corner of Western Australia is likely to see a continuing of isolated showers in the onshore flow.

Conditions to the north of the baric ridge will remain mostly fine.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  The front looks to weaken as it moves east and only scattered showers are likely with isolated snowfalls over the peaks later. Northwesterly winds to strengthen to gale force at times, especially along the coast and the Alpine district.
NSW: Fine in the north.  Scattered frosts likely. Scattered showers developing in the south later Monday / Tuesday, falling as snow over the higher peaks.
Queensland:  Mainly fine with frosts in the south and possibly extending to the central highlands. 
NT: Fine throughout.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Scattered showers over the southwest, continuing but becoming less frequent through Monday.
SA:  Scattered showers and strengthening northwesterly winds with the passage of the front. Coastal showers to follow in the onshore flow. Fine in the north.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers, tending to periods of rain, mainly in the west and along the Bass Strait coast. Strengthening northwesterly winds.

Strong westerly winds were one catalyst for some good snowfalls over the exposed resorts (~12cm at Mt Hotham) during Saturday, with even light falls reaching the Central Tablelands of New South Wales.

A string of lows within the Southern Ocean low pressure belt extends from the South Island of New Zealand to the southwest of Western Australia - this belt is rather further north than 'usual'.  An area of convection is located over the Solomon Islands, mirroring an area in the northern hemisphere, and is moving steadily southwest.  A front is approaching the southwest of Western Australia.

Discussion:  During Sunday, the high will maintain its strength and move slowly east along the baric ridge which is currently just to the north of 30°S. Winds to the north of the baric ridge will remain light with mainly fine conditions continuing over the northern half of the continent except for the far north of Cape York and the northeast of the Top End which may see an isolated shower. Winds over southern Australia will moderate briefly during Sunday as the high moves to our north, before restrengthening as the next low approaches the southeast early in the week.

The low to the south of the front crossing Western Australia during Sunday will slide southeast through the Bight, but to its west is a large cold airfield associated with a deep (as well as broad) long wave trough, which will move steadily towards the Australian continent.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Isolated showers, mainly on and south of the ranges, particularly in the far east, falling as snow over the Alps.  A cold night in the north with local frosts.  Westerly winds moderating through Sunday.  Cool.
NSW:  Isolated showers over the Alps falling as snow at higher levels.A west-southwesterly flow over the east of the state, with cool conditions - winds moderating through Sunday.
Queensland:  Isolated showers over the north of Cape York, particularly on the east coast, mainly fine elsewhere.
NT: Fine except for an isolated shower over the northeast of the Top End.   Cold nights ion the south with widespread frost.
WA:  Showers, becoming widespread in the southwest and along the west coast with isolated storms with the risk of hail, associated with the passage of the front through Saturday night / Sunday. Showers extending along the south coast through the day, and remaining scattered in the southwest. Fine in the north.
SA:  Fine in the north with frosts.  Isolated showers developing along the south coast, while showers will remain scattered over the exposed parts of the southeast corner for the rest of the weekend.
Tasmania:  Showery in the west and south, clearing to the east during Sunday.  Showers, falling as snow at higher levels on Saturday night, with the risk of storms, clearing through Sunday. Winds moderating before restrengthening later in the day ahead of the next front.

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Thoughts?

The airmass following the front is considerably colder, especially in the middle levels. A deep westerly flow is established behind the front with satellite lows forming west of the major centre and moving east, and this entire area is part of the broad thermal trough in the middle levels which extends over Tasmania and the entire Bight.

Conditions in the northern half of Australia north of the baric ridge remained mainly fine during Friday.

Discussion:  During Saturday, the high over Western Australia will move northeast to lie over South Australia, while cloud moving into Western Australia near to 30°S marks the location of a strengthening upper jet. The front will move through New South Wales and southern Queensland through Saturday. The thermal trough will move across much southeastern Australia during Saturday with an upper ridge moving in behind it later in the weekend, bringing less extreme conditions for a brief interlude before the next series of fronts early in the week.

Conditions north of the baric ridge should remain mainly fine, with isolated showers along the Queensland coast a only slight risk during Saturday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered showers, mainly on and south of the ranges, falling as snow at higher levels, particularly on Friday night and the early part of Saturday.   Isolated storms and hail are possible, mainly in the south.
NSW:  Rain periods ahead of the front, with winds tending westerly with showers to follow, falling as snow at higher level Friday night and early Saturday, becoming more isolated during the day.  Possible light snow extending briefly as far north as the Central Tablelands.
Queensland:  Mainly fine except for isolated showers over the far north of Cape York. Cold nights over mush of the state with widespread frost.
NT: Mainly fine. Nights becoming colder in the south.
WA:  Isolated showers over the southwest corner. Increasing high cloud over the lower southwest with showers becoming more general for a period. Fine elsewhere.
SA:  Mainly fine except for scattered showers over the southeast corner, and only isolated showers over the northeast. Isolated storms with hail in the southeast Friday night and early Saturday are possible.
Tasmania:  Remaining showery, mainly in the west and south, with snow to low levels on Friday night . Isolated storms with hail are also likely.

The baric ridge has shifted north to lie near to 25°S across the continent, while the broad westerly flow continues to influence southern Australia to the south of the high pressure region. A series of fast moving fronts is embedded in this flow. A wave low is located in the southern Bight southwest of Tasmania. An area of convection north of the Solomon Islands is mirroring a similar area of convection in the northern hemisphere almost due north.

Discussion:  The strengthening upper jet over the northern Bight and South Australia will speed the 'middle' part of the front eastward faster than its northern or southern extremities, with South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania feeling the effects of the front during Friday. The satellite low in the eastern Bight, which may deepen during Friday, is likely to move northeastward around the broad trough, strengthening southwesterly winds and enhancing showery conditions for Tasmania. 

The ridge of high pressure crossing the continent is likely to edge slightly south following the passage of the front and strengthen in the west, with showery conditions along much of  the south coast of Western Australia, clearing as the high begins to dominate the area. The coldest air in the mid levels will continue to influence the southeast of the continent during the next few days, with widespread showers developing and sometimes heavy snowfalls at higher levels.

Remaining mainly fine over the northern half of the continent north of ~30°S.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Strengthening west-southwesterly winds Thursday night and early Friday ahead of a cold front moving through the state during Friday.  Widespread showers developing ahead of and with the front, with the chance of hail in the south.   Snowfalls, becoming more frequent later in the day at higher levels. 
NSW:  Cool to cold conditions with a strengthening westerly wind throughout the south of the state. Scattered showers, falling as snow over the Alps and higher parts of the Tablelands, possibly extending to the Central Tablelands at times.
Queensland:  Mainly fine except for isolated showers over the northern part of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Scattered showers in the southwest becoming more frequent with the passage of a front along the southern coast.  Showers clearing through the day.
SA:  Showery conditions along the Eyre Peninsula and to the southeast, with heavier falls over the southeastern corner, and becoming more frequent with the passage of a front during Friday.  Chance of hail in the southeast.  Colder conditions to follow.
Tasmania:  Widespread showers in the west and south, with snow over higher peaks later Friday.  Strengthening westerly winds likely to reach gale force at times. Isolated showers in the east. 

A complex of lows is passing through the southern Bight (983 and 985 hPa) with a satellite low on the western side of the upper trough moving to the northeast towards Tasmania.  A broad upper trough lies to the southwest of Western Australia with a surface low of 934hPa south of Western Australia near to 60°S - this is getting close to a record!!

Discussion:  During Thursday, the high over Western Australia will move steadily east, keeping to its well northerly track. Fronts will cross southern Australia in the westerly flow which remains strongly established. Western Australia will be affected by a front crossing the southwest, with showery conditions to follow, becoming colder. Showery conditions, with possible hail and highland snow, extending down to lower levels, particularly behind fronts, look to be widespread for southeastern Australia during Thursday, including as far north as the central New South Wales ranges.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Widespread showers during Wednesday night.  Showers along the ranges, falling as snow at lower levels with the passage of  a series of fronts.   Possible storms with hail during Wednesday night, mainly south of the ranges. A northwest flow shifting southwesterly. Cold.
NSW:  Showers, falling as snow at higher levels, with possible light falls reaching the Central Tablelands at times.  Strengthening west-southwesterly winds with heaviest showers along the windward slopes of the Divide.
Queensland:  Scattered showers along the northeast tropical coast.   Fine in the central and northwest.  Becoming colder in the south with local frosts. 
NT: Fine with the risk of isolated showers in the northeast corner.  Cold nights in the south with locally severe frosts likely in some areas.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Isolated showers becoming more frequent with the passage of a front, extending along the south coast, with colder conditions developing.
SA:  Showers, mainly in the south, becoming more frequent at times.
Tasmania:  Showers, mainly in the western half of the state and the northern coast.  Strong westerly winds.  Highland snowfalls are likely in the west and south. Only isolated showers in the east.

Discussion:  The baric ridge will remain north of 30°S and its eastern end will continue to weaken, while the centre moving over Western Australia will also weaken as it moves east. The lows in the Bight, including the wave low near Esperance will move southeast, while another wave low looks a possibility to develop in the trough near to the west of Bass Strait during Wednesday. Strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of the front will see slightly milder conditions for a brief period before the front with a shift to a west-southwesterly flow to follow.

Conditions will remain clear over much of the continent with cold nights continuing and light winds north of the baric ridge.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Isolated storms in the southwest near the coast and over Bass Strait during Tuesday night. Strengthening northwesterly winds shifting to westerly through Wednesday across the state, with showers developing mainly south of the ranges, falling as snow over the Alps.  Chance of storms, particularly  in the south and along the ranges.
NSW:  Showers developing in the south falling as snow at higher levels.   Colder west-southwesterly winds extending into central parts of the state behind the front, with showers, particularly along the ranges.
Queensland:  Isolated showers over the northern part of Cape York and the northeast tropics. Colder nights in the southeast with local frosts. Light southwesterly winds throughout the south.
NT: Cloudy periods in the northeast.  Fine elsewhere, cold in the south with local frosts.
WA:  Scattered showers remaining in the southwest corner and possible extending along the south coast, fine elsewhere.
SA:  Scattered showers mainly in the southeast, with showers along the south coast also in a moist unstable southwesterly flow.  Fine with cold nights inland.
Tasmania:  Showery conditions in the west, becoming widespread through Wednesday.  Early fogs in the east, clearing before showers develop later in the day.   Possible snow on higher peaks with the chance of thunder.

Discussion:  Temperatures Monday night are likely to be milder under lingering cloud cover over much of Victoria. A cold night over New South Wales and southern Queensland  extending across the continent under clear skies. During Tuesday, the baric ridge will begin to shift slowly northward and slowly weaken. The low in the Bight will continue to deepen but slide southeast, as the southward ridge from the high moves east into the Tasman Sea. The front extending north through the Bight will affect South Australia during early Tuesday, and Victoria and Tasmania later in the day.  Weak tropical infeed is still traceable to this area. Behind the front, the westerly flow begins to set up through the Bight.

Isolated showers are again likely along the tropical Queensland coast in an onshore southeasterly flow.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  A mild night south of the ranges with isolated showers along the coast, cold conditions to the north with frosts. Northwest winds with increasing cloud and showers developing, falling as snow at higher levels.
NSW:  Morning frosts with a fine day to follow with strengthening northwest winds.  Increasing cloud in the south with showers developing, falling as snow over the Alps later.
Queensland:  Isolated showers over the northern tropical coast and Cape York.  Fine elsewhere with widespread frost in the south.
NT: Cold nights in the south.  Fine throughout, with the chance of cloud over the northeast of the Top End.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Scattered showers in the southwest, extending east during Monday night and into Tuesday.
SA:  Showers, isolated in the south and central parts becoming scattered with the passage of the front during Tuesday. Remaining fine in the far north of the state.
Tasmania:  A cold night with fogs likely. Strengthening northwest wind, with increasing cloud and showers, mainly in the west and north, becoming more widespread during Tuesday.

Discussion:  The high will remain slow moving through the next day or so edging to the east-northeast, leading to very cold nights over the much of the eastern states, with severe frosts in some areas, particularly away from the coast and along the ranges.  Conditions may be somewhat moderate under any lingering areas of cloud following the weak front through Victoria and Tasmania. Days will be cool with light winds, and fogs may linger to mid-morning in some areas.

An upper level feed of moisture from the tropical Indian Ocean into a prefrontal trough precedes the front crossing Western Australia, which may strengthen during Monday as the upper jet strengthens.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Isolated showers, mainly in the south.  Widespread frosts, especially north of the ranges.  Temperatures will be more moderate under areas of cloud lingering behind the weak front crossing the state. Fine otherwise.
NSW:  Cool to cold conditions, particularly in the south. Widespread frosts, particularly along the ranges and away from the coast - may be severe at some locations. Light winds except over the south coast.  Fogs along the ranges, possibly clearing late.
Queensland:  Only isolated showers in the far northeast.  Cold in the south with scattered frosts, mainly in the southeast, but possibly extending north along the divide. Fine conditions with light winds.
NT: Fine with the chance of cloud in the northeast.  Cold in the south with scattered frosts.
WA:  Showers in the southwest associated with a prefrontal trough, with isolated storms and possible hail following the passage of the front.  Fine elsewhere.
SA:  Light showers Sunday night associated with the front crossing the southeast of the state. Mostly fine elsewhere after a cold night with widespread frosts and scattered fogs, mainly in the central and north.
Tasmania:  Showers Sunday night in the west and south, becoming more isolated during Monday.  Cold nights with frosts and scattered areas of fog to the east.

June Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page

Victorian Weather Glass