June 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Victoria

Information

July Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page

Discussion:  The high will move over eastern Australia during Sunday with a front following the narrow ridge to the south, likely only to affect Tasmania later in the day. Cold air, advected north by the low pressure system that passed over southeastern Australia, will help setup conditions for widespread frosts through much of eastern Australia during Saturday night, locally severe away from the coast.  A cool southerly flow over the New South Wales coast is likely to trigger isolated showers during Sunday.  Snow flurries are less likely during Sunday, and will become confined to the higher peaks and isolated.

Much of the continent will have clear conditions during Sunday.  The front moving east through Western Australia is showing signs of weakening as it moves east.

Areas to watch: the South Island of New Zealand looks to feel the effects of the deepening low pressure system heading for their west coast during Sunday.  Snow to low levels is likely, particularly in the south.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Drizzle patches in the south clearing.  Fine and cold inland with widespread frosts, locally severe.  Isolated showers falling as snow over the higher peaks.
NSW:  Isolated showers along the coast.  Cold inland, with widespread frosts, locally severe.  Isolated showers along the ranges, falling as snow on the peaks.
Queensland:  Cold nights with widespread frosts along the ranges, extending north.  A mainly fine day throughout.
NT: Fine with only an isolated chance of cloud.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Scattered showers in the southwest, extending east along the coast and becoming isolated.
SA:  Fine after a cold night with widespread frosts.
Tasmania:   A cold night with widespread frosts. Scattered showers mainly in the west and south.

A low in the central Tasman Sea is moving away from our longitudes and towards New Zealand. This full depth system (with 850hPa temperatures of -1.5°C and 700hPa temperatures of -11.3°C from the Melbourne sounding at 10am Friday) was responsible for widespread snow and sleet along the ranges to ~500m through Tasmania, Victoria and into New South Wales. A weak trough moved northeast through northern New South Wales and southern Queensland during Friday.

Discussion: During Saturday, the high in the Bight will move over the southeastern states and strengthen, while the low in the Tasman Sea will slow and deepen as it moves away, this should result in strong to gale force southerly winds along the southern and central New South Wales coasts on Saturday, but moderating winds inland. The front crossing the Western Australian coast will slide to the southeast through the Bight.  Cool to cold conditions continuing through the southeast with scattered showers continuing with brief snow showers at higher levels (ie: the Alps and higher parts of the New South Wales tablelands) and along the coast in the southerly flow.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Local frosts in the north.  Becoming generally milder later in the weekend after scattered showers over the ranges and along the coast, falling as snow at higher levels, particularly Friday night and early Saturday.  Showers more frequent in the east, clearing from the west.
NSW:  Showers, mainly in the south along the coast and ranges, with snow showers at higher levels, becoming more isolated through Saturday.  Scattered storms likely Friday night, mainly offshore. Strong winds along the coast, moderating into Sunday.
Queensland:  Mainly fine throughout with only isolated showers over northern parts of Cape York and southeast.  Becoming colder in the southeast of the state with wintery showers over higher parts.
NT: Fine.  There may be a patch of cloud near the northeast corner of the Top End.
WA:  Showers developing over the southwest corner and extending along the southern coast during Saturday. Fine elsewhere.
SA:  Fine conditions.  Colder nights with widespread frost patches.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west and south falling as snow over higher parts, becoming less frequent through Saturday. Cold in the east.

Discussion:   Cold air will continue to be advected northeast around the upper trough in the southern Bight and will cross Victoria during Friday, lowering the snowline as the colder airfield becomes established. A front moving through New South Wales will extend shower activity and colder southwesterly winds north towards the Queensland border. Snow is likely on the ranges Thursday night and into Friday, with some falls to lower levels, particularly early Friday. The high in the Bight will strengthen as it moves east and the deep south-southwesterly wind flow will restrengthen over the southern states before moderating later in the day and into the weekend.

A northeasterly infeed of tropical air over the Top End from a large but somewhat disorganised area of convection north of Papua - New Guinea will help maintain partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers, but elsewhere north of 25°S should continue to experience mainly fine conditions.  The weak low and front approaching Western Australia should affect only the lower SW Land Division before sliding away to the southeast.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Cold. Widespread showers, mainly on and south of the ranges, falling as snow over higher levels, lowering into Friday.  Small hail and isolated storms in the south are possible.  Mainly fine and cool in the north, with isolated showers.
NSW:  Strengthening winds ahead of the front, with colder southwesterly winds following.  Increasing showers, with snow on the Alps and possibly extending to the Central Tablelands.  Fine in the far northeast, but cooler conditions are expected.
Queensland:  Cool conditions in the south with isolated showers along Cape York.  Fine inland with frost in the south.
NT: Fine with cloudy periods over the Top End, fine and sunny elsewhere.
WA:  Scattered showers and isolated storms developing in the southwest later Friday.  Fine elsewhere.
SA:  Cold south-southwesterly winds in the east of the state.  Scattered showers, with isolated hail becoming isolated.  Fine in the west, with clearing conditions under a northerly flow.
Tasmania:  Cold. Widespread showers, particularly in the west, with isolated storms, and snow possible down to lower levels during Friday. 

There is a satellite low and associated cold pool just west of Strachan (was not analysed on the 1600 chart!?) I think this will become absorbed into a primary low to the southeast of Tasmania tonight,but the cold pool core seems to be heading across Bass Strait and southern Vic, so you will find that your wind direction should shift southwest or to the south overnight or tomorrow morning. There is a ridge moving in from the west later Friday which will warm the upper layers by Sat.....

Discussion:  A large area of significantly colder air located over the Bight during Wednesday will move northeast around the broad trough during Thursday and begin to affect the southeastern corner of the country tomorrow and into Friday as the fronts pass through our longitudes.   Showers falling as snow later Thursday and Friday to lower levels through the Alps and along the ranges.  Falls of snow may extend as far north as the New South Wales Central Tablelands on Friday.  Strong southwesterly winds to follow in the wake of the fronts.

Most of the rest of the continent north of the baric ridge will remain fine and mild, with cold nights, especially towards the weekend in the east as the cold air from the Bight is advected north.  The extensive trough over the Tasman Sea will continue to move steadily east, clearing showers from the Queensland coast..

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Strengthening winds during Wednesday night, showers increasing from the southwest, tending to rain periods and spreading east during Thursday. Storms with the likelihood of hail, especially in the south with sleet possible along higher parts of the western ranges. Snow, with some heavy falls developing over the Alps.
NSW:  Increasing winds ahead of fronts crossing the southern parts of the state during the latter part of Thursday.  Scattered showers, mainly in the south, falling as snow over the Alps, while remaining mainly fine in the far north.
Queensland:  Showers along the tropical northeast coast and northern parts of Cape York. Mainly fine with cold nights in the south.  Cooler conditions developing towards the end of the week in the south.
NT: Cloud in the north. Fine throughout.
WA:  Isolated showers in the far southeast, with showers also over the southwest corner of the state in the moist unstable flow, clearing through Thursday.   Fine in the north.
SA:  Fronts crossing the south of the state will bring widespread showers with local hail in the south likely and strong winds.  Mainly fine in the north, conditions clearing in the west.
Tasmania:  Strengthening winds and increasing shower activity in the west Wednesday night tending to rain periods, becoming general throughout the state on Thursday.  Snow likely to low levels.

Cross equatorial flow through the Arafura Sea has increased upper moisture levels over the Top End and Cape York bringing isolated showers to the far north. A weak trough lies through western Queensland.

Discussion:  The weak high over South Australia will move east through New South Wales during Wednesday, but not regain its strength.  The low near Tasmania will move into the southern Tasman Sea, and the trough over Queensland will also move east to lie off the coast during Wednesday.  The cross equatorial flow will be maintained through Wednesday with cloudy conditions (high cloud in the main) over the northern parts of the continent.

Much of the central and western parts of the continent will remain fine with overnight frosts under the influence of both a surface ridge and an upper high. The baric ridge to the west will shift slightly south and allow a weak low to move through the Indian Ocean towards the southwest Western Australian coast later in the week.

A front will enter the west of South Australia later Wednesday and winds will once again strengthen with its approach particularly over coastal areas of South Australia and Tasmania.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers south of the ranges, mainly along the coast and over the Alps, falling as snow over the Alps. Mainly fine in the north, with winds easing later Wednesday.
NSW:  A cold unstable southwesterly flow over southeastern New South Wales will see showers, falling as snow over the Alps, clearing later Wednesday. Strong winds, especially in the lee (to the east) of the ranges will moderate as the high moves east. Cold nights inland with frosts.
Queensland:  Cooler air moving north into the south of the state.   Isolated showers over Cape York and the northeast tropical coast. Fine and cool with southeasterly winds across much of the state.
NT: Increasing cloud over the Top End.  Isolated showers mainly in the northeast.
WA:  Scattered showers over the SW Land Division with the passage of the front - moving east along the coast through the day.  Fine elsewhere.
SA:  Cold nights with fogs and frosts.  Mainly fine with a front approaching the far west of the state late in the day bringing increasing cloudiness & strengthening winds in the west.
Tasmania:  Showers on Tuesday night, mainly in the west, falling as snow over higher parts, clearing through Wednesday, and redeveloping later in the day in the southwest..  Strengthening northwesterly winds.

Discussion:  The high pressure cells within the baric ridge will continue to migrate steadily east with the centre over New South Wales moving off the coast and a centre becoming established over Western Australia during Tuesday. Tasmania will be affected by a series of fronts Tuesday with strengthening winds and increasing showery conditions over the southeastern corner of the continent an effect of this system also. Colder air will be advected northeast around this system, lowering snow levels over the Alps as it moves over southeastern Australia. The trough extending northwest from these fronts can be traced through southern Western Australia with middle level colder air to its southwest.

Northern parts of Cape York and the Top End are likely to see increasing cloudiness with some showers, mainly over Cape York, as the moist cross-equatorial flow penetrates further south, while most of the continent north of 30°S will remain fine with light winds and overnight frosts.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of a front.  Scattered showers mainly south of the ranges with the chance of a storm, particularly in the southwest. Snowfalls later over higher parts of the Alps.
NSW:  Strengthening northwesterly winds. Showers increasing in the south later Tuesday, with snow showers redeveloping at higher levels. Fine elsewhere.
Queensland:  Showers over the northeast tropical coast and Cape York. Cool in the south with inland frosts.
NT: Increasing cloud over the Top End, but mainly dry except for the chance of isolated showers in the northeast.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Isolated showers over parts of the SW Land Division, mainly in the south near to the coast, becoming less frequent.
SA:  A front approaching the southeast of the state on Monday night will strengthen winds and bring showers to the area. Showers clearing in the west, fine in the north.
Tasmania:  Strengthening northwesterly winds mainly in the west and north, with showers, tending to rain near the front and isolated storms. 

A weak cross-equatorial flow is in evidence affecting the Top End and Cape York, with increasing upper cloud. A weakening baroclinic area is located over the southwest of Western Australia on Sunday night. To its west, a  front is approaching the southwest corner of Western Australia. 

Discussion:  The development of a satellite low in the western quadrant of the deep low in the Southern Ocean during Monday is likely and this may be steered to the east northeast through the Bight. A deep northwest-southwest flow will be maintained from at least another day or so below 40°S.

Isolated showers along the northeastern Queensland coast and the northern parts of Cape York will continue through Monday with the rest of the state remaining fine after cold nights. A patch of upper cloud over New South Wales will not produce showers as it moves through the state. Scattered showers are likely over the Alps, but the snow level will likely remain above 1500m during Monday as winds tend more northwesterly.

The front approaching Western Australia will bring scattered showers to the southwest corner of the continent through Monday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Isolated showers or drizzle along the southwest coast in particular. Drizzle over the peaks. Winds tending northwesterly.
NSW:  Isolated showers.   Cool to mild days after a cold night with isolated frosts inland.
Queensland:  Scattered showers along the northeast coast and the northern parts of Cape York.  Fine elsewhere.  Cool in the south with occasional frost.
NT: Mainly fine with increasing patches of cloud over parts of the Top End with isolated showers in the northeast.
WA:  Fine in the north and central areas.  Increasing showers in the southwest spreading east along the south coast.
SA:  Isolated showers in the southeast.  Mainly fine elsewhere.  A cold night inland with occasional frosts. Strengthening northwesterly winds.
Tasmania:  Generally showery in the west and north, tending to periods of rain. Scattered showers in the east. Strengthening northwesterly winds.

Discussion:  During Sunday, pressures over the eastern part of the continent will increase slightly as the high centred over South Australia during Saturday moves slowly east near to 30°S.  The zonal westerly flow to its south will continue and a deep low (959hPa - 10am AEST) in the Southern Ocean (south of Western Australia) extends a front northwards which will affect southern parts of Australia during Sunday. Tasmania should see increasing winds to gale strength on the west coast with increasingly showery conditions.  The upper trough over South Australia will move east, increasing cloudy conditions through Victoria but with little precipitation expected.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers along the coast and over the Alps, falling as snow flurries over higher parts. Cold inland with frosts.  Cloud increasing from the west through Sunday.
NSW:  Mainly fine conditions with scattered showers on the southern highlands, falling as snow flurries over the Alps.  A cold night with frosts away from the coast.
Queensland:  Isolated showers over Cape York and the eastern coast (except in the south).  Mainly fine elsewhere. Cool to cold nights in the southeast with isolated frosts.
NT: Mainly fine with cloudy periods in the northeast, but showers are not likely.
WA:  Fine except for isolated light showers from middle level could in the Eucla and showers developing in the far southwest with the passage of a front.
SA:  Mostly cloudy, but a few showers in the southwest, and drizzle in the south on Saturday night.  A cool day.
Tasmania:  Winds increasing along the west coast.  Showery conditions in the west extending to central and northern parts.

Discussion: The high will remain slow moving with the dominant centre remaining over northern South Australia and ridging to the west into the Indian Ocean. A zonal surface flow will continue to influence the southern part of the continent for the weekend with showers particularly over exposed coasts, while conditions throughout most of central Australia and the northern parts of the continent will remain fine and mild with cold nights under the influence of the ridge of high pressure.

The trough over southern parts of Western Australia will move begin to move east during Saturday and will increase cloudiness in western parts of South Australia late in the day.

Areas to watch: the broad area of convection to the north of Fiji in the northern hemisphere which has been in evidence for the past week is beginning to show signs of improved organisation.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered showers, mainly south of the ranges and especially along the coast, as well as over the Alps falling as snow. Mainly fine in the north.
NSW:  A southwesterly flow will become established over much of the state with scattered showers on the ranges falling as snow over the Alps.  Fine in the west. Scattered frosts and fogs.
Queensland:  Light showers over the northeast coast of Queensland will continue in the moist southeast flow. Cool to cold nights inland with frost in the south.
NT: Possibility of isolated showers along the northern coast. Fine elsewhere.
WA:  Light showers are likely in the SW Land Division extending in the Goldfields associated with the trough as it crosses the coast and moves east.
SA:  High cloud increasing in the west late in the day.  Early fogs & frosts, particularly in the southeast.  Showers along the southwest exposed coastline are likely to continue in the westerly flow.
Tasmania:  Tasmania will see showery conditions through Saturday, mainly in the west and north with snowfalls over higher levels.

Discussion:   During Friday, the baric ridge over Australia will weaken in the east and higher pressures will retreat westward to be located over South Australia and Western Australia. Fronts embedded in the westerly flow will continue to affect the southern parts of the country for the next few days and cooler air will become generally established over the area.  A weak surface trough near the Western Australian coast may trigger showers as it moves inland.

The low in the New Zealand region will continue to deepen and move southeast across the country during Friday, bringing gale force winds and rain, heavy at times.

Things to watch: the New Zealand 'bomb' at MetVUW

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Isolated showers, mainly along the coast and ranges, increasing as a front crosses the state during Friday. Snow over the Alps, lowering to ~1400m. Cool west-southwesterly winds.
NSW:  Showers over windward slopes extending north along the ranges with the passage of the front. Snow to ~1400m at times. Mainly fine in the north.  Cool.
Queensland:  Showers along the east coast in a moist onshore flow. Isolated showers also likely over the north of Cape York. Patchy middle level cloud moving into the south but little rain expected through Friday.
NT: Some high cloud over parts of the Top End.  Fine throughout.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Isolated showers along and inland of the west coast as the trough moves east.
SA:  Showers in the south associated with the passage of a weak front through Friday morning, decreasing through the day. Fine in the north
Tasmania: Generally showery conditions, particularly in the west, with snow at higher levels, with the level decreasing with the passage of the front. A fresh to strong westerly flow will become established across the state.

The baric ridge extends from Perth to the southeast of the continent, with a series of fronts approaching the southern coastline to its south. To the north of the baric ridge, winds are light, and fine conditions prevailed throughout today.

Discussion:  A full-height trough is deepening through the Coral and Tasman Seas and moving towards New Zealand. The mid-level cold pool is still located to the west of this area near to the Queensland coast, but will be absorbed into the general area of low pressure during Thursday as it moves southeast. There is also strong tropical infeed into this system from near to New Guinea, and the North Island should see substantial rainfall totals during the next day or so.

Showers along the New South Wales coast will continue in a moist southeasterly flow, while the front will cross the southeast of the continent during Thursday, strengthening winds and triggering showers, with snowfalls over higher elevations. Colder air will be advected across southeastern Australia behind this front, and showery conditions are likely to be maintained for the next day or so.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers in the southwest during Wednesday night, extending east through the day, mainly south of the ranges.  Winds strengthening.  Snow showers over higher peaks.
NSW:  Increasing cloud in the south. Strengthening winds ahead of a front which will affect southern parts of the state mainly.  Snow on higher parts of the Alps. Showers along the coast becoming less frequent through Thursday.  Clearing showers in the northeast.
Queensland:  Showers along the east coast, mainly over the northeast and top of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine throughout.
WA:  Mainly fine throughout with only isolated drizzle clearing in the far southwest. 
SA:  Scattered showers in the south with the passage of the front.  Winds strengthening along the coast. Fine in the north.
Tasmania:  Winds strengthening to gale force Wednesday night, particularly in the west.  Showers becoming more frequent and tending to rain periods, with snow over higher parts.

A surface low in the northern Tasman Sea is connected to the low over the South Island of New Zealand - these systems are associated with an upper longwave trough extending from tropical Queensland to the southeast.  An upper cold pool over eastern Australia is triggering widespread showers and isolated storms along and near to the central coast and northeast corner of New South Wales.

Discussion:  During Wednesday, the strengthening high will move to be over the southeastern corner of the continent and ridge to the northwest to join up with the high moving into the west of the country near to ~35°S. The low, currently to the south of Western Australia will be steered southeast, and a strengthening northwesterly flow to gale force will be set up over the eastern Bight, western Tasmania and possibly coastal South Australia. Only the far southwestern corner of Western Australia will be affected by the thermal trough, which will steer southeast through the Bight during Wednesday.

The cold pool over eastern Australia will move northeast tomorrow and is likely to trigger showers and storms over the southeast corner of Queensland and along southern parts of the central Queensland coast. Showers will continue along the east coast in the moist onshore flow.  Generally cold nights inland through central and eastern Australia with widespread frosts and fog.

Areas to watch: The broad area of strong convection to the northeast of Papua - New Guinea has maintained its identity, but is currently lacking in organisation.

Gales developing over the central and eastern Bight, Tasmania and possibly also coastal parts of South Australia between the ridge and the cold front are likely. Rough seas with gales.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Mainly fine throughout, except for occasional snow on the peaks, and showers developing in the southwest later. A cold to very clod night with widespread frosts and fogs.
NSW:  Showers, with scattered storms along the central and northern coasts during Tuesday night, contracting north during Wednesday. Only isolated showers in the south in the moist onshore flow. Isolated showers along the ranges in the south, with snow falling at higher elevations. Fine west of the ranges.
Queensland:  Coastal showers, with scattered storms along the southern and south-central coast, also in the southeast corner.  Isolated showers over the northern parts of Cape York. 
NT: Fine with isolated showers along the north coast of the Top End.
WA:  Fine in the north. Showers lingering over the southwest corner behind the front, becoming isolated. Fine elsewhere in the south.
SA:  Patchy cloud developing later in the southwest.  Mainly fine after a cold night with widespread fogs & frosts in the north. Winds strengthening along the coast.
Tasmania:  Cold to very cold night with widespread frosts and fogs. Showers developing in the west later Wednesday.  Northwesterly winds possibly strengthening to galeforce along the west coast later.

A returning cloudband associated with the Tasman low has brought showers to parts of northeast Tasmania and eastern Victoria, while temperatures over the Alps have been dropping steadily during the afternoon. An arc of cloud over inland Queensland is associated with the jetstream and is not producing precipitation.

Discussion:  The trough and cool pool over New South Wales will move northeast, increasing the likelihood of showers with possible storms especially over the ranges in southeast Queensland. During Tuesday the high will consolidate in the Bight, move steadily east and strengthen, while extending ridges to the southeast and northwest. Strong southeast - southerly winds across Tasmania will moderate with showers contracting to the southeast and the higher peaks and falling as snow particularly on Monday night. Cold nights inland through most of southern Australia with local fogs and frosts will be a feature of the next couple of nights, with showers falling as snow on the Alps.

The low and front approaching southwest Western Australia may be steered to the southeast by the high in the Bight, and will strengthen winds over southern and western parts of the state during Tuesday. Scattered storms, some possibly severe are likely in this strongly baroclinic zone associated with this front. The high pressure system following is ridging in to our longitudes at near 35°S.

Areas to watch: a large area of positive convection has developed to the northeast of Papua - New Guinea.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered showers along the coast and south of the ranges tonight, particularly on windward parts of the coast, with showers falling as snow on the Alps. A cold night inland with local frosts and widespread fogs.  A mainly fine day to follow.
NSW:  Showers in the south and along the ranges, falling as snow over the Alps. Coastal showers are likely in the southeasterly onshore flow, extending to the central coast at times. Mainly fine west of the ranges.
Queensland:   Scattered showers developing through Tuesday in the southeast, with the chance of a storm. Showers continuing over Cape York with isolated showers along the east coast.
NT: Mainly fine.  Only a slight risk of isolated showers over the northeast coast.
WA:  Strengthening northerly winds ahead of a front approaching the SW Land Division.  Scattered showers and storms (some severe) are likely in the southwest, with showers becoming less frequent to the east. Showers along the west coast to near Geraldton with the front, contracting south. Continuing fine in the north.
SA:  Mainly fine after widespread morning fogs, with frosts in the southeast. Cloud increasing from the west during the day, but little if any rain.
Tasmania:  Winds abating through Tuesday.  Showers, falling as snow over the higher parts Monday night and early Tuesday, contracting to the southeast.  Cool to cold conditions generally.

Cross equatorial flow from Indonesia is feeding moisture into the longwave trough approaching Western Australia while near 90°E 60°S, and to the west of this system is a pair of lows at 963 and 966hPa (0Z 16/6). These lows and a large cold air field are associated with the next longwave trough due to affect Australia towards the middle of the week.

The cold pool that was located in the head of the Bight during Saturday has virtually remained stationary near to Ceduna for more than 24 hours, while further east, under the influence of the broad trough, scattered showers and isolated storms were reported in Victoria and southern New South Wales with some heavy falls from slow moving cells.

Discussion:  During Monday the broad area of low pressure will move east into the Tasman Sea, and together with the high over Western Australia ridging to the southeast and the northeast, will freshen the southeast - southerly flow across the southeastern states (ie: South Australia, Victoria & Tasmania as well as the southern parts of New South Wales) bringing scattered showers along and near to the coasts.

The extensive trough associated with this low will continue to move east and be located off the coast of Queensland while the area of convection currently near to Papua is moving southwest and may help to intensify showers along the northeast coast.

The low and cold front approaching the SW corner of Western Australia will trigger showers later in the day, with another front to follow on Tuesday.

The cold pool over the head of the Bight is likely to move towards the Tasman Sea during Monday. Conditions over central regions of the continent will become mainly fine for a day or so under the influence of this high.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Widespread heavy fog in the south central area, a cool to cold night inland.  Scattered showers along the eastern ranges, falling as snow over the Alps. Scattered showers with the risk of isolated storms south of the ranges. Chance of heavy falls mainly in Gippsland.
NSW:  Scattered showers in the south of the state, falling as snow on the Alps. Colder south - southwesterly winds becoming established through the south of the state. Mainly dry in the north
Queensland:  A cool southwesterly flow will become established over much of the southern parts of the state.  Scattered showers along the northeast coast.
NT: Mainly fine except for showers over the northeast Top End.
WA:  Fine in the north with scattered showers developing in the southwest later in the day, winds strengthening and maintaining showers along the southern coast.
SA:  Mainly fine, with scattered showers along the coast, more frequent in the southeast corner.
Tasmania:  Showery in the south and east in a strengthening southeasterly flow. Some heavy falls.  Snow developing over higher parts. Mainly fine in the northwest after morning fogs.

Discussion: A broad area of low pressure at the surface and in the middle and upper levels will continue to dominate southern Australia during Sunday.  Pressures will remain low, remaining at or below 1000hPa for the 5th day in a row! The low pressure centres will continue to move in a generally easterly direction with fronts rotating through the eastern quadrants of the lows. The wraparound cloudband looks also to continue during Sunday and may trigger heavy falls, especially upon making landfall.  The combination of highs moving through the western parts of the Bight, and to the south of the Bight, continues to cradle the lows. These highs are likely to strengthen through Sunday as they move towards South Australia and should provide a Western Australia with a brief respite from the rain, wind and storms that have been experienced during the past few days, before the next longwave trough and low pressure system at  ~30-35°S moves near to the southwest coast.

A trough will continue to lie through New South Wales and Queensland extending to near the Barkly Tableland. Showers are likely as this trough moves east towards the coast with isolated showers also likely along the tropical coasts.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered showers with occasional storms during Saturday night and Sunday, extending east.  Some heavy falls are possible, especially in the east and northeast of the state. Snowfalls over higher parts.
NSW:  Showers in the south and extending north to central areas particularly along the Tablelands.  Snow over higher parts.
Queensland:  Showers associated with the trough moving east to be near the coast during Sunday night.  Isolated showers over tropical coasts with scattered showers and isolated storms in the southeast corner.
NT: Mainly fine with the exception of showers about the northeast coast of the Top End.
WA:  Winds abating through Sunday, except for the Eucla. Showers along the south coast, becoming isolated through Sunday.  Widespread fogs with some frosts in the south away from the coast.
SA:  Showers and scattered storms through Saturday night and Sunday, clearing from the west Sunday.  Mainly fine in the north.
Tasmania:  Showers in the east and south tending to rain periods Sunday and early in the week, heavy at times.  Showers elsewhere.

Potential risks: There is potential for heavy falls later Sunday and early in the week, especially in the northeast and east of Victoria and over Tasmania associated with the returning cloudbands associated with the complex low pressure.

The low near to Western Australia is analysed from the surface to the tropopause, and is beginning to drag air up from due south around it. The tropical infeed from the Indian Ocean into this system has weakened through Friday, but there is a further moisture plume developing to its south.

In the north, a weak upper trough extends from Cape York southeast of New Caledonia, while in the northwest, a weak surge of cross equatorial air can be identified by the location of a line of upper cloud off the northwest coast.

Discussion: During Saturday, the low in the Bight will move generally east, but only rather slowly. The associated front will cross New South Wales during Saturday, but there will be little if any change in wind direction, which is likely to remain from the northwest. Rather unusually, the front will cross Tasmania from the north to the south, not from the west to the east. The high to the west of the continent will continue to ridge to the southeast and then to the northeast, ahead of the low, cradling the area of low pressure.  Cooler air from the south will wrap around this low as it moves slowly east, helping destabilise conditions.

Thickening high and middle level cloud will cover   most of New South Wales during Saturday and with the upper level jet strengthening over the state will be sheared away over the northern Tasman Sea.  A returning cloudband is developing near Tasmania and beginning to feed into the circulation over the Bight.  This may affect Tasmania during Saturday, giving periods of rain.

To the west, the developing moisture plume in the Indian Ocean near to 20°S looks most likely to be captured by the next approaching low early in the new week rather than the system currently in our latitudes.

New Zealand note: Snow is expected to low levels over the central and southern parts of the South Island Friday night and Saturday morning.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers with isolated storms in the west during Friday night clearing briefly, then showers redeveloping and becoming scattered across much of the state. Isolated storms possible. Snow showers over higher parts of the alps.
NSW:  A front will cross the state during Saturday with winds remaining northwesterly, fresh to strong over higher parts. Scattered showers throughout, becoming isolated later, falling as snow over higher parts.
Queensland: Mainly dry throughout with widespread fogs mainly in the southeast corner.  Isolated showers over the northern parts of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine except for isolated showers about the northeast.  Some high cloud in the northwest, with cloudy periods in the south.
WA:  Cold, windy, strong to gale force at times from the south with isolated storms and the likelihood of hail, mainly in the southwest tonight and then contracting east along the south coast Saturday. Fine in the north, becoming cooler in the central regions.
SA:  Northwesterly winds strengthening from the west and turning colder southwesterly.  Widespread showers in the south with isolated storms, mainly over the Bight. Dry in the north.
Tasmania:  Showers developing in the north and west and extending south and east. Isolated storms possible.  The chance of rain periods in the east.

Both lows have moved slowly east, and the low near Tasmania (along with a couple of unanalysed smaller  'satellite' lows in the eastern Bight) has kept pressures at many locations through southeastern Australia in the 980 - 999hPa range.   They are expected to remain low for the next few days.

Discussion: The lows will move east during Friday with the Tasmanian low moving towards the South Island of New Zealand and deepening. A front will cross South Australia and Victoria during Friday, while the band of low pressure will cover much of the Bight and affect most of southern Australia during Friday and into the weekend.  A slight warming in the middle levels is associated with the weak ridge moving through to the east during Friday preceding the front.

The high following this full depth low pressure system south of Western Australia will ridge to the south / southeast and help maintain the cutoff low, while the high south of the Bight is likely to edge northwards, keeping surface pressures low for at least the next 48 hours..

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Cloud increasing with scattered showers becoming more widespread through Friday. Strengthening northwesterly winds. Isolated storms with the chance of hail in the south and Gippsland are possible, mainly Thursday.
NSW:  Cool conditions with strengthening westerly winds.  Showers in the south and along the Central Tablelands falling as snow on higher peaks later Friday or Saturday.
Queensland: Mainly fine with the exception of isolated showers over northern parts of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine with isolated showers over the northeast of the Top End.
WA:  Strong to gale force SW winds over the southern parts of the SW Land Division.  Scattered showers with isolated heavy falls & hail & thunder are likely to continue into Friday. Scattered showers along the southern coast.  Mainly fine elsewhere except for isolated light showers associated with the cloudband over the Central West, Goldfields and Eucla.
SA:  Showers, becoming widespread with isolated storms in the south through Friday.  Winds shifting colder westerly with the passage of the front.
Tasmania:  Mainly fine Thursday night with scattered showers developing in the north and west later Friday.

The baric ridge has weakened and remains near to and north of ~30°S from north of New Zealand to the coast of Western Australia.  Another deep low (981hPa) near to 45°S to the southwest of Western Australia is associated with a long wave trough. A weak centre of high pressure over Western Australia ridges south into the Bight. A cross equatorial flow over Indonesia is feeding moisture into the long wave trough to our west.

Discussion: The lows in the Bight will continue to track steadily east while maintaining their latitude separated by a ridge from the high moving across northern South Australia. Fronts will cross New South Wales bringing rain, with snow at higher levels (of Victoria also) as a colder airfield is driven up from the southwest, and Western Australia during Thursday which will bring rain to the SW Land Division as well as along the coast near to Geraldton as the tropical infeed crosses the coast.

A tropical infeed from north of Timor is bringing moisture towards the Top End and may trigger only isolated showers. The cross equatorial flow feeding into the longwave trough in the Western Australian area will continue to feed strongly into this region through Thursday, triggering possible heavy falls in the southwest corner.  Mid and upper level cloud moving east across the continent is likely to produce only isolated showers

The high moving into our area later Thursday and into Friday is likely to ridge to the southeast, and may cut the approaching low off from the westerlies to the south as it moves through the Bight.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Widespread showers, mainly on and south of the ranges, falling as snow at higher levels.  Strong to gale force winds particularly over the coast and ranges. Isolated storms with hail in the south.
NSW:  Showers becoming more frequent over much of the eastern part of the state (except the north) with snow over the alpine areas, strong winds moderating behind the front. Isolated storms with hail possible over the Southern and Central Tablelands.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the northern parts of Cape York.  Fine elsewhere with cool nights.
NT: Fine except for the chance of a shower over the Top End coast.
WA:  Fine in the north. Showers with isolated storms in the southwest, showers along the central west coast.
SA:  Isolated showers along the south coast, clearing from the west before redeveloping ahead of the next front.  Scattered showers continuing in the southeast.
Tasmania:  Widespread showers, tending to rain periods, with snow at higher levels and possible hail in the south.  Isolated storms, mainly in the north and west.

The mid and upper level cloud through the Bight marks a strengthening of the jet and precedes the front.  The area of upper cloud over southern Queensland is not active, while the weak upper trough continues to move northeast along the Western Australian coast near to 15°S bringing in moisture originating from tropical activity over eastern parts of Indonesia.

Discussion: The baric ridge will continue to weaken through Wednesday and maintain its position near to and north of 30°S.  A front will cross the southeastern states late Tuesday / Wednesday restrengthening the northwesterly winds and bringing widespread showers to much of the southeast  with occasional snow on the peaks. Mainly fine conditions in the central and northern parts of the continent will be maintained under the influence of the broad high pressure ridge.

The weak upper trough over the northwest will continue to move slowly eastward along the coast, allowing some moisture to feed into northern parts of the Territory, but only isolated showers are likely over the northeast of the Top End. Occasional showers are also likely over the northern part of Cape York, with the rest of the eastern coast of Queensland remaining dry.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Strengthening northwesterly winds Tuesday night becoming gale force at times along the coast and ranges. Showers tending to rain with snow on the higher peaks, lowering later in the day. 
NSW:  Showers becoming more frequent in the south, and then extending through to central parts, falling as snow in the alpine areas later in the day. Winds strengthening. Cool in southern and central areas, becoming colder with the passage of the front. Fine in the north.
Queensland:  Isolated showers over northern parts of Cape York.  Mainly fine elsewhere..
NT: Fine throughout with the chance of a shower over the northeast of the Top End.
WA:  Isolated showers over the southwest corner of the SW Land Division. Becoming colder in the south.
SA:  Mild at first with gusty winds increasing and isolated showers developing in the west Tuesday night and extending east early Wednesday and becoming more frequent, before clearing later.
Tasmania:  Strengthening northwesterly winds with showers in the north and west becoming widespread throughout. Hail and isolated storms likely in the north.

Upper cloud along the NW coast of Western Australia marks the presence of an upper trough.  A front is approaching the SW corner of Western Australia associated with a low that  is sourcing part of its moisture from the tropics southwest  of Sumatra.

Discussion: The high will edge steadily east-northeast through Tuesday while strengthening a ridge to the west. The infeed from the Indian Ocean may split, with part of the band heading northeast across the continent with the jet and part feeding into the low and frontal system moving through the Bight during Tuesday. Tasmania will continue to be affected by the cold pool associated with the low moving south of the state towards New Zealand for at least the next 24 hours, while showers over the southeast of the Australian continent will become generally less widespread over the next day or so, but with a reintensification of shower activity as embedded fronts and waves move through. 

Conditions generally will become milder during the next few days over southern Australia with winds tending more northwesterly as the high moves slowly eastward.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers, more frequent on and south of the ranges.  Strong to gale force winds continuing along the coast & on the ranges.
NSW:  Isolated showers over southern parts. Cool conditions throughout, with strong winds in alpine areas.
Queensland:  Isolated showers along the northeast coast. Fine and cool elsewhere. Light winds.
NT: Fine except for isolated showers about the NE Top End coast.  Partly cloudy in the south but remaining dry.
WA:  Scattered showers in the southwest, mainly along the coast with the passage of the front.
SA:  Remaining mainly fine except for isolated showers or drizzle along the south coast and in the southeast of the state.
Tasmania:  Showers continuing in the west and south through Tuesday, falling as snow at higher levels.  Showers more frequent in the southwest with possible hail & isolated storms.  Cool to cold throughout.

Discussion: The high over South Australia will remain slow moving through Monday, maintaining the baric ridge near to 30°S and allowing fronts to affect the southeastern states. A strengthening W-SW unstable flow will be maintained through the early part of the week, particularly over alpine New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Much of the rest of the continent will experience mainly fine conditions with cool nights and light winds.

A front will cross the SW corner of Western Australia later Monday / Tuesday while the front crossing the southeast of the country on Monday is likely to retrigger further snowfalls at higher levels with the southern states seeing an increase in the frequency of showers during much of the day.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers throughout, strong to gale force (particularly in alpine areas and along the coast) NW winds turning W-SW through the day. Snow showers remain likely at higher levels.
NSW:  Showers along the southern ranges, falling as snow at higher levels in the alps. Cool W-SW flow.
Queensland:  Coastal showers along the northeast coast and northern parts of Cape York. Fine elsewhere. Cool in the south.
NT: Fine except for isolated showers over the northeast corner of the Top End.
WA:  Isolated showers over the coastal Pilbara and western Gascoyne, drizzle along the southwest coast., becoming showery over the SW as the front crosses the area
SA:  Scattered showers along the southern and southeast coasts.   Strengthening winds, mainly in the southeast.
Tasmania:   Strong to gale force winds over the state. Showers in the west becoming widespread tonight and more frequent and falling as snow at high levels.   Isolated storms with hail possible.

After the passage of Monday's front it looks like Victoria will remain in a winter set-up, with the highs remaining to our north and the Southern Ocean lows influencing us. The models have Tuesday as been a bit of a lull day, in between fronts with not a lot happening. The winds will start to swing more to the NW as the next frontal system in the sequence approaches. Showers will continue on the exposed coast of SW Victoria.

This next front is expected to move through during Wednesday. At this stage it looks likely to be more active than the front due on Monday. The Air mass associated with it looks to be quite cold, thicknesses are expected to drop below 540. But as the last front has shown, thicknesses aren't everything, if the moisture is not present, not a lot will happen. This front looks to have more moisture associated with it, but like the last few fronts, it looks like wind direction will play the pivotal role in where the rain will fall. Again areas facing the strong westerly airstream will score the heavier rain, so the SW coast and South Gippsland will have the best falls (especially the SW where it looks likely the front will peak).

Longer term it looks like Victoria will remain under a similar pattern, with westerly winds continuing, and periodic fronts. 

The front and trough over the eastern states on Saturday will move off the coast during Sunday and a cooler northwesterly - southwesterly airflow will become established.  Stream showers are likely over southern parts of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania with coastal showers in Queensland. The cool pool over Victoria during Saturday looks to move northeast into New South Wales, and may trigger showers near the ranges.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Scattered showers with possible thunder on and south of the ranges. Snow at higher levels.
NSW:  Showers along the ranges, falling as snow over the Alps. Showers over the far northeast becoming isolated.  A cooler NW-SW flow over the state.
Queensland:  Scattered coastal showers over the central and northeast coasts.
NT: Fine.
WA:  Isolated showers possible over the Pilbara, drizzle patches in the southwest, clearing.
SA:  Scattered showers along the southern coast.  Mainly fine in the north.
Tasmania:   Scattered showers, falling as snow, then clearing through the day. Shower activity redeveloping later Sunday.

Australian satellite images from 4th to 8th June

Discussion: After a mild interlude, one feature of interest for Friday and the weekend will be the movement of the cold pool in the Bight.  Likely to move northeast steered by the upper jet, and, with a wave low likely to form west of Tasmania during Friday with a front crossing the southeast corner further complicating the setup, the southeastern states are likely to see hail and some snow falls to low levels during late Friday and the weekend. Colder air in the middle levels will destabilise conditions with scattered showers to follow later in the weekend.

The next high will ridge in at ~30-35°S and will bring a brief return to settled conditions to the west before a deepening trough off the west coast.  The high in the north Tasman Sea will remain slow moving during Friday with showers likely along the Queensland coast.  Scattered storms remain likely while the upper trough remains just off the coast.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Cold air showers developing in the west during Friday and becoming widespread across the state later with the chance of hail & storms, mainly in the south.  Sleet and snow developing at higher levels later in the day and through the weekend.
NSW:  Mainly fine along the north coast with increasing cloud from the west and scattered showers in the south, becoming more widespread.  Sleet and snow showers are likely on the Alps during Friday night / Saturday. Becoming colder.
Queensland:  Showers along the tropical coast, with isolated storms in the north. Increasing cloud in the south and southwest with showers developing - mainly dry elsewhere with cold nights inland, especially along the ranges.
NT: Fine.
WA:  Showers in the south becoming confined to the coast.
SA:  Becoming fine for a short while, before the development of scattered cold air showers with isolated storms in the south and possible hail.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west overnight, clearing, then redeveloping during Friday and becoming more widespread with isolated storms.  Conditions becoming colder with snow on higher parts during Saturday, possible extending to lower levels.

Discussion: During Thursday, the high will move over the northern Tasman Sea, and strengthen a ridge to the south east of Tasmania - this should help to slow the eastward movement of the approaching trough. The baric ridge is shifting north and will extend from Shark Bay in the west, through southern parts of the Northern Territory and northern New South Wales - this northward shift will allow the fronts to also extend their influence further north. The first front will cross South Australia and cyclogenesis in the Bight is likely to the west of Tasmania as well as in the western Bight area.  The second front will increase shower activity over the southwest of Western Australia during Thursday with isolated storms possible.

The upper low over eastern Queensland will cross the coast into the Coral Sea, and showers in the southeast of the state and along the coast should become less frequent, although isolated showers may persist in the moist easterly flow.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Cloud increasing across the state Thursday with showers tending to patchy rain in the west, becoming general across the state later in the day.    N-NW winds increasing.
NSW:  Mainly fine with increasing cloud in the southwest of the state, but only isolated showers later in the day are possible.  A cold night inland with fogs, and frost over higher parts.
Queensland:  Mainly fine except for showers along the central and southern coasts and the southeast corner.  A cool night in much of the northern inland.
NT: Fine.
WA:  Scattered showers with some areas of patchy rain continuing through the Pilbara & extending to the Goldfields and the Eucla. Scattered convective showers in the southwest and along the west coast (mainly south of ~27°S), becoming more frequent with the passage of the next front. Isolated storms possible, but mainly in the south and off the coast.
SA:  Showers increasing to patchy rain in the west on Wednesday night becoming more frequent through much of the south of the state.  Isolated storms are possible, mainly over the Bight.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west and northwest, becoming more general throughout the state later Thursday and during Friday.

Discussion: The now weakening high over New South Wales will continue to move east-northeast towards the north Tasman Sea through Wednesday, while the upper low over eastern central Queensland will begin to move east and weaken. This surface high will continue to affect much of New South Wales and Victorian weather through Wednesday, with cold nights and widespread frosts over higher inland parts and unseasonally mild days. Across South Australia, warm air in the middle levels will be advected southeast  ahead of the longwave trough and associated lows, and the trend of mild days after cold nights will continue for the next 24 hours or so.

The full-depth low south of Western Australia will move in a generally east - southeasterly direction and continue to deepen at the surface through Wednesday - the strength and direction of the ridge from the high to the west will determine this low's movement.  The large thermal trough following at 500hPa (~18,500') will continue to trigger widespread showers and storms in the unstable air.  Significantly colder air in the middle levels, resulting in increased instability, is being advected well northwards around the western side of the low by the upper jet.  This cold air will move east during the next few days with the longwave trough and cross the southeast corner towards the end of this week, resulting in increased instability and widespread cold conditions, with snow falling to possibly quite low levels.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Cold nights with frosts, some severe in the northeast of the state.   A mainly fine day with increasing cloud in the middle levels.
NSW:  Coastal showers along the north coast. Frost in the highland areas overnight.
Queensland:  Showers, widespread over the central coast & adjacent hinterland, and more scattered in the southeast corner, contracting to the coast later Wednesday. Frosts likely over higher parts.
NT: Mainly fine.
WA:  Widespread showers with scattered storms, and some locally heavy falls, over much of the south of the state and extending as far north as the Pilbara. Convective showers and storms following behind the main cloudband.
SA:  Increasing cloud through Wednesday with isolated showers in the southwest, spreading east.  Isolated storms over the Bight.
Tasmania:  Mild days after cool nights with valley fogs. Drizzle in the south and west.  Cloud increasing throughout.

Discussion: The high over the southeast corner is likely to edge northeast just inland of the New South Wales coast during Tuesday, maintaining a mild and moist onshore flow, triggering showers along the coast as it moves north.  The upper low over Queensland will continue to edge north towards the subtropical jet and weaken before moving over the Coral Sea during Wednesday. Strengthening northwesterly winds will strengthen over southern parts of Western Australia as the low passing just to the south of the state becomes better organised and begins to deepen - this low looks to become cutoff during Tuesday. Widespread showers with scattered storms are likely with this system. An area to the west of the state at ~35°S shows very cold unstable air approaching which will trigger further showers and storms behind the front.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A  cold night with widespread frost, some may be severe in the northeast.  A mainly fine day throughout with increasing cloud in the west.
NSW:  Scattered showers along the north coast. Cold nights inland with some heavy frosts over higher parts. Mainly fine away from the coast.
Queensland:  Widespread rain over the southeast corner and central coast and adjacent hinterland. A cold inland with heavy frosts. mainly fine elsewhere.
NT: Fine.
WA:  Fine in the north.  Widespread showers with scattered storms continuing through Monday night and into Tuesday and Wednesday in the southwest and south of the state, extending north along the coast at times.
SA:  Mild and mainly dry conditions except in the far west where isolated showers may develop during Wednesday.  Fogs in the southeast with frosts possible.
Tasmania:  Showers in the south and west.  Fog patches over much of the state, clearing to a mainly fine day.

Discussion:  The high will continue moving in an easterly direction through Monday and extend broad ridges to the east and northwest giving cold nights and widespread frosts inland. The low currently moving northwards through central Queensland remains a 'wildcard' for the beginning of the week, but it looks likely to continue to move northwards, keeping to the west of the Great Divide while the upper trough extends north also. Showers and storms are likely to continue with its passage.

Much of Western Australia,  excepting the west and southwest is likely to remain fine (ie: no precipitation).  Widespread showers are likely from the cloudband being fed moisture from the Indian Ocean.  A strong high will reach the west by mid week, with the next longwave trough and associated colder midlevel air looking to reach its most northerly point further east than over the previous weeks.

Potential risk: The broad area of convection near the Solomon Islands should be watched for development.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Cloud moving into the west of the state during Monday, clear elsewhere during the day.  Cold nights inland with widespread fogs, and frosts, some severe in the northeast.
NSW:  Showers continuing along the north coast and adjacent ranges. A cold night inland with frost in most areas.
Queensland:  Showers and scattered storms spreading through much of eastern central Queensland with showers and storms continuing over parts of the southeast. A cold night elsewhere and remaining mainly fine except for the northern tip of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine throughout.
WA:  Widespread light showers are likely to persist over the central west coast and southwest through Monday, extending east during the day.
SA:  Widespread frosts inland with fogs, mainly in the southeast.
Tasmania:   Showers in the south and west. A cold night in the east.

Discussion:  The high moving east across the southeast corner will continue strengthening, while upper highs remain strong further west and stable air covers much of the west of the continent. The front over the southwest of Western Australia will weaken and begin to slide southeast through the Bight, while the next front will approach early in the week. The upper low and associated 'cool pool' will remain over the northeast of New South Wales during Sunday and will continue to trigger storms in the area, mainly along and just off the coast with some heavy falls likely. Shower activity should extend into southeastern Queensland during Sunday as the upper low moves north.

The deep low to the southwest will continue to slide to southeast and will continue to deepen. Cloud will increase over the far west of South Australia later Sunday, but conditions will likely remain dry. Isolated light showers are likely along the entire southern coasts of the eastern states.  A cross equatorial flow may penetrate far enough south to interact with upper flow over the Top End and Cape York to produce isolated showers in those regions.

Potential risk: An area of convection south of Java should be monitored during Sunday and the early part of the week, for the development of moist infeed moving towards the West Australian coast near to NW Cape - there is the possibility of the development of a significant cloudband producing widespread showers over parts of Western Australia early to midweek.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Isolated drizzle patches in the south.  A cold night inland with fogs and frosts, clearing to a mostly fine day with light southeast winds.
NSW:  Showers with scattered storms & local heavy falls continuing along the north coast through Sunday. Isolated showers along the central and south coasts, with occasional showers falling over the dividing range, possibly extending further inland in the north.
Queensland:  Isolated showers along the east coast becoming more frequent over the north of Cape York.  Isolated showers or storms in the southeast corner becoming more frequent as the upper low moves over the area.
NT: Mainly fine except for isolated showers along the Top End coast.
WA:  Dry in the north, scattered showers in the southwest with isolated storms becoming more general in the south.
SA:  Only isolated showers possible in the south along the coast, clearing to a fine day throughout.  Fogs with inland frosts.
Tasmania:   Drizzle in the south spreading to the lower west.   Mainly fine elsewhere after fogs with frosts over higher parts.

Discussion:  The high in the Bight will move steadily in a generally E direction and extend broad ridges to the southeast and northwest. This large high at the surface with highs in the upper levels also will keep much of the continent fine after inland frosts. The position of the subtropical jet can be traced by the line of high cloud moving from the southwest along the northwest coast of Western Australia.

The front will move through eastern New South Wales during Saturday before passing into the Tasman Sea.  Cool air currently in the mid levels over much of eastern Australia to as far north as 20S remain through the weekend. On the other side of the continent, temperatures will increase ahead of the front crossing the southern parts of the state during Saturday. There is an upper infeed to this system from the subtropics at ~20°S strong and the system will show a strong east-west temperature gradient across the trough & front.  Showers with isolated storms may be triggered as the system moves east through the weekend.

A south-southwesterly flow onto the South Australian and Victorian coasts during Saturday is likely to trigger scattered showers while a mid level cool pool looks to move north across Victoria and into New South Wales, possibly giving isolated snow showers to the higher peaks.

Rainfall potential
Victoria:  Showers in the northeast of the state with snow on the higher peaks. isolated showers continuing south of the ranges. Local fogs with some frosts, especially in the northeast.
NSW:  Showers along the coast, with falls becoming heavier close to the front.  Some snow on the higher peaks.  Isolated storms near to the front.   Cold morning inland with frosts in higher parts.
Queensland: Isolated showers in the southeast with a possible storm.   Fine after morning frosts away from the coast.
NT: Fine throughout.
WA:  Fine in the north and east.  Showers with isolated storms south of ~30°S with the passage of the trough and front - extending east through Saturday.
SA:  Fine except for isolated showers in the south.  Morning fogs in the southeast.
Tasmania:   Scattered showers in the west and south.  Morning frosts.

May Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page

Victorian Weather Glass