March 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Victoria

Information

Generally lower pressure remains over the northern part of Australia, while the large area of convection to the northeast of the Coral Sea also remains. Moist tropical infeed continues onto the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts of Western Australia, while an active front crosses the southwest of the state. Moisture from ex-TC Ikala as well as another convective area in the Indian Ocean (~10 - 15S) are being drawn into this system.

Future Developments:  The high will move through Bass Strait during Sunday and for the first time this autumn, will become the main influence on the weather of the entire southeast of the continent.   The surface low looks to continue its eastward movement being deflected by the ridge building into the Tasman with the upper low being caught up in the upper NW flow. The convective area south of the Solomon Islands should be monitored during Sunday, but shear needs to decrease before organisation can improve.

Moist tropical infeed will continue over Western Australia, and this will increase cloud in the western parts of South Australia as the trough moves east. An active front (sourcing its moisture from 2 separate areas of the Indian Ocean as noted in the 'Discussion' above), will follow this trough & the combined system is expected to trigger showers & storms with its passage. An extensive cold pool follows way SW of Western Australia. South Australia should see rising temperatures as the winds swing around to the northeast.

Potential Risks: a weak upper low forming over South Australia is not expected to trigger activity during Sunday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers in the morning in the south, mainly along the Gippsland coast.
NSW:  Isolated light showers along the coast.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the east coast, with further showers on the northern parts of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine.
WA: Showers and isolated storms continuing over the west Kimberley and Pilbara coasts, extending to the southeast.  Showers & storms in the south with the trough & front as they move east.
SA: Fine in the south with isolated virga patches possible in the west.
Tasmania: Mainly fine after drizzle patches in the west early in the day.

Two areas of lower pressure are located along the ITCZ to the northeast and the northwest of the continent.  The high in the Bight has remained quasi-stationary & weakened slightly.  Ridges lie through Bass Strait and to the west of Tasmania. Tasmania is currently under a cold SW airstream following the front.

Future Developments:  The Tasman high will move east of New Zealand allowing the surface trough to move east off the coast. This is likely to deepen into a low over water during Saturday off the southern Queensland coast. Disorganised convection in the Coral Sea is likely to remain & there are signs that upper outflow is developing - this area should be monitored. The low to the northwest of Australia continues to feed moisture into the trough over Western Australia.   The front approaching Western Australia is drawing moisture from ex-TC Ikala and is associated with a strong upper level trough, although this looks likely to peak before reaching the WA coast. The high in the Bight will weaken slightly as it moves east & the ridge will remain through Bass Strait and southern Victoria.

Potential Risks: There is a possibility that the upper low may begin to draw moisture in above ~700hPa from the outflow originating from the low near to Papua. If this occurs, the system may reintensify with heavy falls likely to continue over the eastern parts of New South Wales.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers south of the ranges.
NSW:  Scattered showers & storms along the central and northern coasts & adjacent areas, with some heavy falls. Isolated showers on the south coast.
Queensland: Showers clearing from the southeast corner - isolated storms near to the NSW border.
NT: Isolated showers in the Top End.
WA: Showers and isolated storms in the western Kimberley, Pilbara and extending to the south and southeast. Showers in the SW as the front enters the state.
SA: Isolated showers in the southeast.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in southern & western regions.  Isolated showers of sleet or snow on the higher peaks are possible.

A large area of organised convection is located northeast of Papua, while the West Australian trough is beginning to shift eastwards. An upper trough directs cloud onto the NW West Australian coast. The high in the Bight remains quasi-stationary and has shown little pressure change over the past 48 hours. Lows are being steered southwards around this high and then moving northeast to cross Tasmania.

Future Developments:  The highs in the Tasman Sea and the Bight are not expected to move far through Friday, although the ridge being extended to the NSW coast from the Tasman high looks to weaken and allow the surface trough through eastern Australia to begin edging slowly east. The movement of the upper low is less predictable.

The ITCZ is dipping south towards the coastline of Australia, with the greatest influence likely to be in the Kimberley and Pilbara regions. The WA trough will begin to move east during Friday, directing hot E - NE winds across much of the southern part of the state.The high in the Bight will ridge through Bass Strait and across Victoria, while also sending ridges to the north through South Australia and south to the west of Tasmania.   Patchy cloud near the southern coast of WA marks the position of an upper 'cool pool' in the area which will move slowly northeast but is not likely to produce any rain.

Potential Risks: A low to the SW of Western Australia is drawing tropical moisture from TC Irkala (955hPa 11am) in the Indian Ocean. 

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers & drizzle patches south of the ranges, clearing through Friday.
NSW:  Showers and storms over the north & east of the state, becoming more widespread to the east with heavier falls likely near to the coast & on the ranges.
Queensland: Showers and thunderstorms over the southern & central parts of the state, becoming confined to the southeast during Friday as the trough moves east.
NT:  Isolated showers possible about the west coast of the Top End.
WA: Isolated showers in the Kimberley and Pilbara regions, extending southwards.
SA: Isolated showers along the coast becoming less frequent.
Tasmania: Showers developing in the south & extending east through the day.

Future Developments:  The high in the Tasman will continue to block the eastward movement of the trough which will help it to remain in the same area through Thursday.   The convective area near to Papua will slowly move southeast and is not likely to affect the Queensland coast at this stage.The high in the Bight continues to ridge through Bass Strait as well as sending a weak ridge to the northeast through South Australia.  

The Kimberley and Pilbara coasts will remain under the influence of moist tropical infeed from the Indian Ocean.  The West Australian trough will remain just off the coast in response to the position of the upper low in the area & not move inland until later Thursday / Friday. During Thursday, shower activity will continue to move southward. The location of a mid level 'cool pool' in the western Bight which will move slowly northeast may become more obvious on Thursday as cloud develops in its vicinity. The low to the west of Western Australia will weaken as it moves east. A front to the southwest of Tasmania should be able to invade far enough to the northeast to affect Tasmania later Thursday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers south of the ranges, with showers also possible in the far east and northeast of the state.
NSW: Showers and storms in the north and northeast, mainly east of the western slopes. Scattered showers in the southeast corner.
Queensland: Showers east of the trough extending from central parts to the southeast coast.  Storms are likely in the southern part of the state particularly in the SE quarter.
NT:  Isolated showers over the far north Top End are possible.
WA:  Isolated showers in the Pilbara extending southwards & also in the Kimberley along the coast. Drizzle patches along the southern coast.
SA: Isolated showers along the southeast coast & adjacent areas.
Tasmania: Scattered showers becoming more frequent in the south.

Future Developments:  The upper low over New South Wales will continue to move N / NE, but only very slowly,   while the 850hPa 'cool pool' which crossed the coast near  Adelaide will move into north central NSW during Wednesday, further destabilising conditions.  Moisture from the Indian Ocean will continue to feed into the trough over eastern Australia, and warm, moist air feeding back around the low from the Tasman Sea may trigger rain periods over southern Victoria with some heavy falls. High moisture levels should see isolated storms generally along the length of the trough with more widespread shower activity also through the south central as well as western regions of Queensland.

An upper low off the West Australian coast will approach during Wednesday while the WA trough will remain just off the west coast and deepen.  South Australia will increasingly come under the influence of the high to the west with generally fine conditions except in the south where showers will persist.

Potential Risks: Heavy falls are possible associated with the returning cloudband in southern Victoria. Heavy falls are also a risk in New South Wales especially in the northeast.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Rain periods in the east of the state, scattered showers south of the ranges. Watch the returning cloudband....
NSW: Showers and storms will be concentrated in the eastern half of the state, particularly in the north and along the trough.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the tip of Cape York, showers & storms likely in south central & western districts, moving east.
NT:  Isolated showers and storms over the northern Top End.
WA:  Scattered showers are likely in the Pilbara, extending south.   Isolated storms in the Kimberley.
SA: Scattered light showers along the coast, decreasing.
Tasmania: Isolated showers, mainly in the north, becoming isolated.

Future Developments:  During Tuesday the high in the Tasman Sea will maintain the ridge along the Queensland coast.  The surface low (and associated fronts) will move slowly through southeastern Australia, with its eastward movement hindered by the ridge from the high in the Tasman. The area of convection in the Arafura & Coral Seas close to the equator will continue to influence the extreme northern coastal areas of Queensland and Northern Territory. A weak West Australian trough will form off the coast and move east towards the coast during Tuesday. Temperatures will rise ahead of this trough.

The high approaching Western Australia will continue to ridge along the coast as well as sending a weaker ridge to the south of Tasmania. This will keep the fronts approaching in the westerly flow south of our area. The upper low near Adelaide looks to continue its movement northeast & then slow.  The southern part of New South Wales will be under the direct influence of this low which is drawing colder air northwards from the southwest which will serve to destabilise conditions.  This whole system may stall over the next day or so.

Potential Risks: There is a risk that the low  over southeastern Australia may become cutoff later Tuesday or Wednesday.  The wildcard is the location of the upper low.......

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers and scattered storms, mainly in the north & east.
NSW: Widespread patchy rain & scattered thunderstorms, particularly in the southern half of the state. 
Queensland:  Isolated showers along the east coast.  Isolated showers and storms over Cape York & around the Gulf. Showers & storms are possible in the SW.
NT:  Isolated showers and storms in the Top End and also developing in the far south.
WA:  Isolated showers & storms over the Pilbara, Kimberley and along the trough.
SA: Scattered showers & storms in the south, extending to the northeast & then clearing from the south later Tuesday / Wednesday.
Tasmania: Scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly in the northeast.

Future Developments:  The high in the Tasman Sea will continue to direct moisture onto eastern Australia. The ridge along the New South Wales & Queensland coasts will remain, although it will be a little further inland through Monday. In the south, this will help stall the trough from moving off the coast. The surface trough, which traces from Tasmania, through Victoria and northeast South Australia to Western Australia is likely to remain quasi-stationary for the next 24 - 48 hours, and with a buildup of moisture levels over the state, will trigger showers & possible storms through much of Monday and Tuesday. Tropical infeed from the Indian Ocean into this trough is still continuing.

The low near 50S in the Bight looks to continue its northeastward movement as the upper trough strengthens. . The high to the southwest of Perth will ridge both along the coast and towards the southeast helping to maintain the northeast movement of the low.

Potential Risks: The cool pool in the mid levels is being guided northeastwards & looks to develop further in the southeastern parts of South Australia / western Victoria during the next 48 hours.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers and scattered storms through the state.
NSW: Isolated coastal showers in the far northeast & possible isolated storms in the south and west with the trough.
Queensland:  Isolated showers on the very top of Cape York.  Coastal showers along the eastern tropical coast are possible.
NT:  Isolated showers and storms over the Top End, mainly near the coast.
WA:  Isolated showers & storms over the Kimberley coast and through the Pilbara and towards the southeast. Isolated showers along the southern coast, clearing.
SA: Scattered showers along the southern coast, possible storms in the northeast.
Tasmania: Showers & isolated storms in the north & west clearing, redeveloping later Monday.

A surface low has formed in the Bight & is currently being steered east by the ridge of high pressure following it. This ridge extends along the southern West Australian coast from a strong high located in the Indian Ocean. Moist infeed from the tropical depression located in the Indian Ocean continues and has strengthened over the past 24 hours as the depression has deepened. A surface low currently moving northeast is evident well south of Western Australia at ~50S.

Future Developments:  The low in the Tasman Sea will remain quasi-stationary through Sunday, directing moist onshore winds onto the central & northern coasts of New South Wales and the southern & central Queensland coasts, while the ridge remains slightly inland rather than along the coast. Pressure in the north of the continent will remain lower in the west, where the Kimberley and eastern Pilbara  will be under the moist inflow from the Indian Ocean, which is being drawn into the convergence area (trough) moving east through southern Australia.  As this system moves into drier conditions, it may begin to weaken somewhat.

The surface low to the far south of Western Australia on Saturday night will move northeast into the Bight during Sunday, but there is a risk that may be deflected to the east or south-east by the strengthening surface ridge along the West Australian coast.  Temperatures ahead of the trough over the southeast of the continent will increase as the winds shift more northwesterly.

Potential Risks:  A middle level 'cool pool' in the Bight currently moving NE should be watched for an increase in activity.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Fine except for isolated showers & possible high based storms in the west as the trough moves east.
NSW: Isolated showers along the central and northern coasts.
Queensland:  Showers possible over far northern Cape York and in the southeast.  Late storms in the west of the state are a slim chance.
NT:  Showers & isolated storms over the Top End coast, mainly in the NE & W.
WA:  Isolated showers & storms in the Kimberley and Pilbara.  Drizzle along the south coast, clearing.
SA: Isolated showers and high based storms associated with the trough, mainly in the south of the state, moving east.
Tasmania: Fine.

There seems to be some interest in the development of a significant cold pool over the south east of Aus later Monday or into Tuesday, there seems to be some risk of this at the moment especially if the large high west of Perth remains slow moving and extends a ridge to the south east which may aid in the 'slingshot' of cold air towards the northeast. It will be interesting to watch the Aust Bight region over the next 24 to 48 hours for the appearance of a cold pool especially at 500hpa. Another factor is the potential deepening of the upper long wave trough on Sunday and the intensification of the sub tropical jet. The region of the western Aus Bight is already showing positive vorticity.

Future Developments:  The high in the Tasman Sea will strengthen and extend a broad ridge through northern New South Wales and coastal Queensland to the tropics. A moist northeast onshore flow will affect the central and northern parts of New South Wales, while Queensland will feel the effect of southeasterlies. Inland away form the coast in both states, temperatures will increase through the weekend.  Isolated showers and storms are likely along Cape York, mainly in the west as well as the northeastern coast of the Top End as the tropical moist infeed continues although weaker than in recent days.

The Indian Ocean northwest of Western Australia and to the south of Java is currently under the influence of an upper high & this will help to suppress shower activity along the Kimberley coast. The trough in West Australia (south of 20deg S) will continue to move eastwards in association with the front and affect South Australia during the weekend. This trough is currently a strong area of convergence and this may enhance activity as the trough moves eastward  through Saturday as moist infeed to the area from the Indian Ocean continues. South Australia will see increasing cloud and rising temperatures through the weekend with winds swinging around to the NW ahead of the front.

Potential Risks:  A low may develop in the Bight between 35 & 40 deg S.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Fine & warmer.  Possible early fogs in the south.
NSW:  Very isolated coastal showers in the far NE.
Queensland:  Isolated storms along the trough, moving northeast.   Isolated showers and storms over Cape York, mainly on the western side.
NT:  Isolated showers and storms mainly over the Top End coast, particularly in the east.
WA:  Isolated showers and storms associated with and moving east with the trough & front.  A possible shower in the Pilbara with activity extending southeast towards the Goldfields.
SA: Possible virga & isolated high based storms in the west.
Tasmania: Warmer & mainly fine.

Lower pressures remain over the northern parts of Australia again while the area over the Arafura Sea, directly north of the continent is occupied by an extensive area of cloud. The West Australian trough is located inland and there is a front approaching the coast.

Future Developments:  The high will move through Bass Strait to the Tasman Sea during Thursday, and will continue to ridge along the New South Wales coast, with a weak trough lying down the west of the ranges in both New South Wales and Queensland.  During Thursday, this trough will deepen slightly and move westwards as the ridge strengthens. The ridge will extend to the tropical coast and remain broad.

The West Australian trough will move inland away from the coast with increasing temperatures to its east & more humid, cooler conditions along the coast & just inland. The front moving across Western Australia is collecting moisture from the Indian Ocean ~ 20S with a steepening west-east temperature gradient during Thursday, then weakening as the system moves east towards South Australia. South Australia should see increasing temperatures with NE - N winds through Thursday & mainly fine conditions.  Victoria will remain mostly fine with temperatures rising as the wind backs through the NE towards the NW over the next day or so.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Fine.  Areas of fog possible.
NSW:  Isolated showers and storms in the far northeast of the state, with possible storms west of the ranges, mainly in the north along the trough.
Queensland:  Isolated showers & storms particularly along the southern and central coasts during the later afternoon and evening.  Showers & isolated storms over the top of Cape York.
NT:  Showers & storms becoming more frequent over the Top End.  Some heavy falls.
WA:  Isolated showers extending from the Pilbara southeastward.  Showers moving east with the trough & becoming less frequent. Drizzle patches in the SW, clearing through the morning.
SA: Fine, except for the chance of isolated light showers or virga  from the mid-level cloudband in the northeast. Fog patches along the southeast coast.
Tasmania: isolated showers, mainly in the west, clearing.

Future Developments:  The high in the Bight will remain only slow moving parallel to the coast & strengthen slightly through Thursday. The low in the southern Tasman Sea will direct a front along the New South Wales coast, while the trough in the north of the state will continue to edge northeast only slowly & will traverse southern Queensland through Thursday. The ridge along the Queensland coast will weaken as the high moves into the Pacific.  Showers and scattered storms are likely to continue in the Tropics for as long as the inflow from the north & northeast is maintained.  The main area of activity is likely to continue its westward movement towards the Kimberley.

The area of cloud in central Western Australia is likely to move slowly southeast, but is not likely to produce much rain.  There is however, a strengthening infeed of moisture from the Indian Ocean south of Java which may change the dynamics of this area & a watch should be maintained for developments over the next 24 hours. The West Australian trough will deepen and move east during Thursday with temperatures increasing east of the trough, while a front followed by colder air aloft approaches the west coast.

South Australia will remain under the influence of the high with mainly fine conditions and light winds, while Victoria and Tasmania will be under a more southwesterly flow ahead of the high with patchy showers.

Potential Risks: The baroclinic cloud leaf in Western Australia may develop into a middle level low.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers along the coast & south of the ranges becoming less frequent through Thursday.
NSW:  Isolated showers along the central coast.  Scattered showers and storms along the trough in the northeast & northern inland becoming confined to the far NE corner.
Queensland:  Showers & isolated storms over the northern parts of Cape York with rain periods occasional.  Isolated storms through the southern inland and SE corner associated with the trough & moving northeast.
NT:  Scattered showers & storms over the Top End, becoming more frequent in the west.
WA:  Isolated showers and storms in the Kimberley, more scattered in the Pilbara & isolated showers associated with the midlevel cloud patch in the central districts. Possible storms in the Goldfields and to the east.
SA: mainly fine except for the chance of a shower along the coast in the southeast.
Tasmania: Scattered showers becoming less frequent.

Future Developments:  The high in the Bight will remain quasi-stationary and will ridge through Victoria to the Tasman Sea during Wednesday.  A front associated with a low south of Tasmania will pass through that state and also affect Victoria south of the ranges. The trough in northeastern New South Wales will move only very slowly towards SE Queensland, while the ridge along the sub-tropical & tropical coasts will strengthen further.

Moisture associated with the convergence area in the northern Coral Sea will trigger spells of rain over the Cape York region (heavier on the eastern side) while the cross-equatorial flow will continue to increase moisture levels in the Top End & Kimberley.  The Indian Ocean midlevel moisture feed continues to trace through the Pilbara to the east of Australia. The West Australian trough will deepen and move east during Wednesday, with increasing temperatures to the east & a moist NW flow onto the coast to its west.  Much of South Australia will remain under the influence of the high in the Bight, while south of the ranges in Victoria and Tasmania will feel the effects of the front.

Potential Risks: Maybe an isolated storm in SE Queensland sneaking in from over the NSW border.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers in the south, mainly along the coast.
NSW:  Storms in the far northeast extending to the northern inland.   Possible light showers on the far south coast.
Queensland:  Rain periods over the Cape York area & possible isolated showers in the Barkly region. 
NT:  Isolated storms across the Top End, particularly in the west.
WA:  Scattered showers & storms in the SW Land Division, extending east.   Isolated showers & storms in the Pilbara & Kimberley, extending inland at times.  Isolated storms possible east of the heat trough.
SA: Mainly fine except for isolated showers in the SE corner.
Tasmania: Showers, scattered tending to widespread at times & then decreasing behind the front. Colder conditions

Future Developments:  The trough & front will pass into the Tasman Sea by Tuesday while the trough looks to be captured in New South Wales by the positioning of the high in the Tasman which will strengthen.  A large amount of mid-level moisture being advected towards New South Wales which has originated from the Indian Ocean, which may help destabilise conditions in the northeast.

The ridge along the Queensland coast will strengthen and become broader. Cross - equatorial moisture is being directed towards the Top End during the next few days & may trigger further monsoonal activity after midweek.  The West Australian trough, although weaker than over the past month or so, will reform inland from the west coast & temperatures will begin to rise from Wednesday.  Much of South Australia will remain under the influence of the high moving east through the Bight, although teh far southeast corner may feel the effects of the fronts as they move east.

The baric ridge will extend across Victoria during Tuesday, keeping the lingering trough north in New South Wales while a series of fronts will cross southern parts of Victoria as well as Tasmania through mid-week.

Potential Risks: A weak surface low may form off the NSW central coast during Tuesday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Coastal showers south of the ranges, particularly in the SW. Possibility of an isolated storm in the far northeast along the ranges.
NSW:  Showers and storms are likely along the coast central and north coasts, and also the northern inland associated with the trough. 
Queensland:  Showers along the eastern tropical coast tending to rain at times, with possible light showers lingering in the western Gulf region.
NT:  Isolated coastal showers along the north & western parts of the Top End. 
WA:  Scattered showers along the Pilbara & Kimberley coasts extending inland to the southeast.  Dry elsewhere.
SA: Scattered coastal showers in the south.
Tasmania: Showers tonight, increasing in the west during Tuesday. 

Future Developments:  A front will pass through South Australia during Sunday evening / Monday morning & through Victoria and Tasmania during Monday & New South Wales on Tuesday.  Temperatures will rise rapidly ahead of the front as the winds shift more NW.  Temperatures will remain high in Queensland and the weak surface trough will move slowly west.  Pressures are beginning to fall over the northwest of Australia.

Cooler SW winds will help to moderate temperatures in the southern parts of Western Australia and South Australia as the front moves east. The longwave trough currently is weakening as it moves east, but is advecting moisture southeast through South Australia and into Victoria ahead of the front. 

The high will move into the western Bight region and strengthen, sending a ridge to the northern part of the Bight by midweek, while a series of fronts will pass to the south of the continent, affecting Tasmania and the southern parts of South Australia and Victoria.

Potential Risks: The risk of storms in Victoria is largely dependent on the amount of moisture in the middle levels advected across the state by the longwave trough ahead of the the front.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers & storms, mainly south of the ranges may be associated with the front.
NSW:  Fine...
Queensland:  Isolated showers along the northern east coast & also the western Gulf region.
NT:  Possible isolated showers along the northern coast & near the Gulf.
WA:  Isolated showers and storms in the Kimberley & Pilbara.   Clearing coastal showers in the south.
SA: Isolated showers in the south are possible following the front.
Tasmania: Showers in the west & south becoming more widespread through Monday.

Future Developments: The high pressure currently over much of the continent is expected to remain the dominating influence over the next day or so, although pressures should continue to drop slowly as the highs weaken.   Temperatures should rise generally through Sunday excepting in Tasmania and the southern parts of Western Australia. The trough through western Queensland is inactive.

Showers will continue in the Pilbara & Kimberley while the moist inflow continues. A deep low with an associated cold air field is located SW of Western Australia and is moving ENE but only the southern parts of WA are likely to be affected. A series of fronts is passing to the south of the continent and affecting Tasmania.

Potential Risks: nil current

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers overnight with early drizzle south of the ranges.
NSW:  Fine.....
Queensland:  Isolated showers along the east coast.  Isolated showers in the western Gulf area.
NT:  Very isolated showers possible mainly over the NE Top End.
WA:  Isolated storms in the Pilbara & Kimberley, mainly along the coast but extending inland at times.  Light showers in the south associated with the trough in the SE & the approaching front.
SA: Fine except for possible coastal showers in the SE in the morning and in the SW later Sunday with the approach of the trough.
Tasmania: Rain easing through Sunday before increasing early in the week with the next front.

Future Developments:   The high in the Bight will continue to weaken through Saturday and Sunday as it edges slowly east through southern Victoria and Bass Strait, and will restrengthen in the Tasman Sea. The trough will remain through inland Queensland and New South Wales but will be largely inactive.

The broad upper northwesterly ahead of the trough currently moving across Western Australia, is transporting moisture from the Indian Ocean in the region of 10 -15S southeast across Australia.  The southern portion of this trough will accelerate through Saturday while the northerly portion will lag behind. The Goldfields area of Western Australia will see shower activity during Saturday with the passage of the trough.

Away from the influence of this trough, a large upper high will stabilise conditions over much of the continent. Tasmania will remain under the influence of a strong SW airstream with embedded fronts moving across the state.   The southern parts of Victoria will see scattered showers develop with the approach of a front.

Potential Risks: The NW extension of the trough which can be traced from New South Wales, through Queensland and the Northern Territory to NW Western Australia may trigger isolated storms in NW Western Australia as stronger moisture infeed from the equatorial regions develops through Saturday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers in coastal areas later Saturday. mainly fine elsewhere.
NSW:  Generally fine.
Queensland:  Isolated showers along the central and northern parts of the east coast.  Isolated storms in the NW near the Gulf of Carpentaria.
NT:  Isolated storms possible along the northern & western coasts north of Daly Waters.
WA:  Isolated showers & storms along the Kimberley & Pilbara coasts.   Scattered showers & storms associated with the trough in the Goldfields districts, moving east.
SA: Mainly fine
Tasmania: Showers with periods of rain at times.

As for the front... I have a horrible feeling that this is going to turn into a fizzer as the associated low pressure system quickly occludes and cold air advection on the western side of the long-wave trough dies away. Probably, our best chance for weather is thunder-storms with the front on Monday, though I expect this to be a rather dry front (like last Mondays), and possible follow-up frontal activity next week, beyond the accurate range of the models.

Future Developments:  The high in the Bight will ridge through southern Victoria and Bass Strait and establish a new centre in the Tasman Sea during the next day or so while a ridge will remain along the east coast. The trough through inland eastern Australia will edge slightly west through Friday & weaken during the early part of the weekend.  Temperatures will rise in NSW & Queensland. The low near to New Caledonia will continue to move southeast and not affect Queensland.  Isolated showers and storms are possible along the far northern coastline of Australia, particularly in the western Gulf country and also along the West Australian coast as the moisture infeed from the Indian Ocean increases.

A front will cross the southern part of WA during Friday & interaction with the approaching long wave trough may see increased shower and storm activity in the west particularly south of ~27S.  Shower activity associated with this trough will move SE as the trough crosses the west coast.  The field of cold air behind this trough is being sandwiched between this trough and the one following, which also shows significant activity for early in the season.

Mid to high level cloud will increase in the west of South Australia but little if any rain is expected during Friday or Saturday.  The front crossing Tasmania and the SW flow behind will bring cooler showery conditions tending to rain at times.

Potential Risks: The low near New Caledonia may organise further & begin to deepen.  The lows around the Cocos Island area still bear watching.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers, more likely drizzle, near the coast in the mornings, clearing.  Fine otherwise.
NSW:   Isolated showers and storms inland associated with the trough west of the Divide, particularly in the north.
Queensland:  Showers along the east coast & possible storms in the western Gulf country extending to the SE along the trough.
NT:  Isolated showers & storms possible along the Top End coastline.
WA:  Isolated storms about the Kimberley.  Showers & isolated storms developing over much of the southern parts of the state.
SA: Fine...
Tasmania: Showers tending to rain periods, particularly in the south.

Future Developments:  The high in the Bight is expected to remain quasi-stationary over the next day or so and will strengthen the ridge through Bass Strait and along the east coast.  The inland trough will edge slowly westwards through Queensland and New South Wales as the ridge strengthens. 

The trough in the Indian Ocean approaching Western Australia is tilting and starting to pick up tropical moisture from the area to the southwest of Java and this could trigger shower and storm activity over the next 48 hours in the Gascoyne & southern Pilbara regions. The West Australian heat trough will hover around the coast during Thursday maintaining hot conditions in the south but with increasing cloud.  South Australia & Victoria will remain under the influence of the high which will direct SE winds over much of the southeast of the continent.

Potential Risks: There is a large cold air field in the Indian Ocean approaching Western Australia behind the longwave trough which extends to ~30S & is still expanding north.  It may reach our longitudes & give parts of southern Australia a cool interlude.

Also worth watching are the areas near to the Cocos Islands in the Indian Ocean & the area of convection west of Vanuatu in the Coral Sea.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle patches along the coast with possible areas of fog, clearing.
NSW:   Isolated storms inland, particularly in the north.  Isolated coastal showers.
Queensland:  Isolated showers & storms in the tropics & interior adjacent to the trough.  Isolated showers along the coast.
NT:  Isolated showers & storms, mainly in the Gulf country & along the trough in the Tennant Creek area.
WA: Showers and storms in the Gascoyne & southern Pilbara, extending SE. 
SA: Fine except for possible early fogs in the SE.
Tasmania: Isolated light showers, scattered at times, particularly in the south & west.

Future Developments:  The slow moving high in the Bight looks to strengthen, which will aid in the strengthening of the ridge along the east coast during Wednesday.  The inland trough through Queensland and New South Wales will edge slowly west. Temperatures along the coastal strips in both states will remain mild in the onshore flow, while inland Queensland can be expected to be very warm to hot.  Pressures in the northern part of Australia will rise over the next day or so before the next intensification of the trough.

The heat trough in Western Australia should move inland allowing a moist NW flow over the coast while keeping temperatures down along the coast. The high in the Bight will continue to direct SE winds over Victoria and South Australia keeping conditions partly cloudy and mild in the south & warmer & clear in the north.  Tasmania will see occasional showers, mostly in the south with the westerly flow.

Potential Risks: The area south of Java around the Christmas & Cocos Islands should be watched over the next day or so for possible developments.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle along the coast in the morning is possible.
NSW:  Isolated storms inland, particularly in the north.  Isolated coastal showers.
Queensland:  Isolated showers & storms in the tropics & northern interior becoming less frequent in the east.
NT:  Isolated showers & storms, particularly along the northern part of the Top End & in the SW.
WA:  Isolated showers & storms in the north, possibly extending into the Gascoyne.
SA: Early showers in the southeast, clearing. Fine in the remainder.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in the south.

Future Developments:  The high in the Bight will strengthen as it moves east through Bass Strait & will strengthen the ridge along the east coast, effectively halting the eastward movement of the trough & maintaining its position west of the ranges in New South Wales. This trough extends through inland Queensland and New South Wales and looks to deepen and remain quasi-stationery over the next day or so. The low in the Tasman Sea is weakening and moving slowly SW and losing its cutoff status as the high moves east. There is a weak change moving through eastern NSW.

There is a strong infeed of moisture from the Indian Ocean through NW Western Australia which will help to increase the shower & storm activity in the eastern states as well as the west. The West Australian heat trough will deepen and winds will become more NE increasing temperatures. There is an active front approaching Perth.

Potential Risks: The area south of Java around the Christmas & Cocos Islands should be watched over the next day or so for possible developments.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Coastal showers and drizzle with the possibility of a storm in the northeast along the ranges.
NSW:  Isolated showers and thunderstorms inland associated with the trough extending south from Queensland. Scattered showers and storms in the northeast as a remnant front moves through the state.
Queensland:  Very isolated coastal showers,  with isolated showers and storms inland from the NW to the southern inland of the state associated with the trough.
NT:  Isolated showers and storms in theTop End, mainly in the west, and possibly in the far south near Alice Springs.
WA:  Scattered storms in the Kimberley and Pilbara, extending into the north Gascoyne and  becoming more widespread through the eastern Interior.
SA: Isolated showers along the coast..
Tasmania: Showers, particularly in the west.

Future Developments:  The high in the southern Tasman will continue ridging into NE New South Wales & then inland parallel to the Queensland coast rather than along the coast.  The trough through inland Queensland will remain quasi-stationery. Temperatures in inland New South Wales will rise as the wind shifts towards the NW ahead of the approaching front. The north of Australia will continue to come under the influence of a general area of lower pressure rather than any specific system for the next day or so. The West Australian heat trough will reform off the coast during Monday, increasing temperatures in southern Western Australia as the winds turn more E-NE.

The front passing through South Australia will swing the winds around through the SW to the SE as the ridge strengthens in the Bight. Temperatures will increase in Victoria & Tasmania as the front approaches, but there is little moisture available and the front is also sliding to the southeast.

Potential Risks: The baric ridge looks  to strengthen through the Bight & then ridge through southern Victoria and Bass Strait while leaving the trough in inland NSW.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers and storms, mainly closer to the coast or on the eastern ranges.
NSW:  Isolated storms in the west associated with the trough.
Queensland:  Isolated showers and storms over the tropics, and also associated with the trough extending from the NW to the southern inland.
NT:  Isolated showers & storms about the northern part of the Top End, with storms possible in the south associated with the trough.
WA:  Isolated showers along the NW coast.  Dry elsewhere.
SA: Scattered coastal showers are likely, particularly in the SE.
Tasmania: Scattered showers and isolated storms with the change.

A low pressure system in the southern Bight is moving east & a small low has formed along the trough near the southern. West Australian coast.   Victoria is languishing under an upper ridge identified by a line of cirrus in the west of the state which is moving slower than treacle (<10 knots at 300hPa) ..... with a trough to the west.

Future Developments:  The high in the Tasman will cut off the low moving towards New Zealand while continuing to ridge along the east coast of Australia. The trough through New South Wales looks to weaken.  A trough in NW Queensland extending towards the southeast of the state may trigger storms in its vicinity. A moist SE onshore flow along the east coast will see scattered showers on the coast of New South Wales and as far north as the Queensland tropics. Scattered showers and storms may become more frequent in the western parts of the Top End with an infeed of moisture from the equatorial region.  There may also be storms triggered along the Kimberley and Pilbara coast with a similar moisture infeed from the Indian Ocean. 

The West Australian trough, which triggered storms inland during Saturday evening is continuing to draw moisture from the Indian Ocean even as it moves further east. Temperatures in South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania will rise sharply during Sunday as the wind swings around to the north. Moisture levels will rise in the western parts of South Australia during Sunday

Potential Risks: The area of convection in the Coral Sea may deepen over the next day or so, but will likely move SE on the east side of the upper ridge.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Mainly fine. Isolated storms will be possible if a source of moisture becomes available.
NSW:  Possible isolated storms near the trough in the west.  Showers along the coast, clearing from the south.
Queensland: Isolated storms along the trough from the NW to the southern inland.  Scattered showers along the coast. Isolated storms on the north of Cape York are possible.   
NT:  Isolated showers and storms in the Top End, with possible storms developing in the SW.
WA:  Showers and storms moving into the east of the state associated with the trough.  Scattered showers in the SW & isolated storms along the Pilbara & Kimberley coasts.
SA: Scattered showers & the possibility of a storm as the change moves east.
Tasmania: Mainly fine.

Future Developments:  The slow moving high in the Bight will send a ridge up the New South Wales coast as it moves east & a surface trough will remain over southern central Queensland and inland NSW, deepening through Friday & into the weekend, possibly extending as far south as northeast Victoria. The ridge looks likely to strengthen over the next day or so, effectively keeping the trough inland over the east of Australia. The tropical lows in the Coral Sea will continue to move to the southeast and weaken.  The trough across northern Australia will continue to generate shower & thunderstorms and a surface low looks likely to form in the western Top End / Kimberley area. Storm activity over this region may become more frequent with the deepening of the area of low pressure to the west of Darwin.

The West Australian heat trough will deepen and move inland through Friday and into the weekend increasing temperatures in the southern & central parts of the state, except along the south coast which will remain under the influence of the SE onshore flow from  the Bight for most of Friday before temperatures begin to climb.  An approaching mid-level disturbance may help to increase storm activity.  Temperatures over southeastern Australia will rise through the weekend as wind swing from SE through NE and more towards northerly with the approach of the next front later in the weekend.

Potential Risks: The mid-level disturbance moving through the south of the Northern Territory may trigger storms as it moves into moister air over Queensland / northern NSW & there is a risk that it may translate into a disturbance at the surface.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle patches in the south.  Mainly fine elsewhere, except the slight risk of a storm in the far NE.
NSW:  Scattered showers and isolated storms along the coast with scattered storms inland, associated with the trough.
Queensland:  Showers along the coast decreasing during Friday but becoming more frequent during the weekend.  Scattered storms in the north as well as in the SE inland.
NT:  Isolated showers & storms, mainly over the Top End. Scattered showers in the south as the mid level disturbance moves east.
WA:  Isolated showers & storms in the west along and inland from the coast extending to the Gascoyne, & to the Goldfields during Saturday. Possible storms in the northern Kimberley & the western Pilbara.
SA: Possible showers from the mid-level cloudband in the north of the state with scattered showers in the south.
Tasmania: Scattered showers, particularly in the south & west, clearing.

All these ingredients may then be swept up in a front around Tuesday, which varies in intensity from a full-blown cold-outbreak with snow to 1000m in NOGAPS, to something approximating a sea breeze in GASP and the EC models.

Future Developments:  The trough which moved through Victoria during Wednesday is likely to stall in northeast Victoria and inland New South Wales.The high in the Bight will build a ridge towards Tasmania. Showers are likely along the Queensland coast in the moist SE onshore flow.  TC Des will continue moving southeast along the low-mid level ridge to its east and weaken.  Scattered showers and storms within the trough across the top of northern Australia.

The West Australian heat trough will reform during Thursday west of the coast increasing temperatures east of the trough.  A middle level disturbance will move inland over the SW Land Division during Thursday & interact with the surface trough. The inland surface trough which can be traced all the way back to the Indian Ocean to the south of Java, extends to the area of lowering pressure in NSW and may trigger isolated storms in areas of higher moisture in NSW & the Pilbara.  South Australia should see only scattered showers along the coast, clearing as the high moves east.  Temperatures will begin to rise again.

Potential Risks: A re-intensification of the monsoon over northern Australia is likely during the next week or so.  There is the chance that a low will develop over southern New South Wales & if the ridge to the south from the high in the Bight strengthens, this system may be cut-off & become slow moving over the next few days.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Possible showers and storms in the far northeast under the influence of the trough. Drizzle along the coast & south of the ranges.
NSW:  Isolated showers and storms associated with the inland trough. Scattered showers along the north coast.
Queensland: Scattered showers & storms in the north of the state, with coastal showers.
NT:  Scattered showers and storms, mainly over the Top End decreasing in the south.
WA: Isolated showers and storms in the north Kimberley & Gascoyne.   Possible storms in the Pilbara.
SA: Showers along the coast, clearing.
Tasmania: Scattered showers.

Future Developments:  The ridge through northern New South Wales looks to become broader through Wednesday and extend more westwards through Queensland due to pressure forcing by the Coral Sea low.   Showers are also likely over the northern NSW coast. SE winds on the Queensland coast will trigger showers, with some heavy falls. Fine elsewhere.  Pressures over the northern part of Australia are beginning to decrease again.  Scattered storm activity is likely within the vicinity of the ITCZ, more particularly in the east. The West Australian heat trough will reform off the coast during Wednesday / hursday, with temperatures in WA rising except along the coastal fringe where a SE onshore flow will be directed onto the coast by the high moving through the Bight. There may be isolated storms along the trough through WA especially in the Gascoyne & extending to the Eucla.

The front moving through the Bight looks likely to shear away from the trough over South Australia, which may result in the surface trough moving rather more slowly than the front to the south. Tasmania should see rising temperatures with the chance of a storm as the front passes across the state.  The shallow trough in the west of Victoria, which has been slow moving, will move eastwards, more quickly in the south. The front looks to move through southern Victoria, possibly reaching Melbourne during the afternoon.

Potential Risks: The Coral Sea low is still a possibility to become a TC but is almost too far south for this to be very likely as it passes over cooler waters. There is a possibility that the low pressure in the Bight may become cutoff and move eastwards to pass close to Victoria.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Possible showers & isolated storms particularly with the change & more likely on & south of the ranges.  Storms are also possible in the southwest of the state.
NSW:  Showers along the northern coast. Possible isolated storms in the southwest and south with the trough.
Queensland: Tropical storm activity, particularly over Cape York.   Showers along the coast, with some heavy falls.
NT: Isolated storms over the Top End, particularly in the far north.   Storms also likely to the NE of the Tennant Creek area.
WA: Isolated storms along the trough through WA with isolated storms along the Kimberley coast.
SA: Scattered showers, particularly along the coast in the wake of the front.
Tasmania: Scattered showers with the chance of a storm.

The Coral Sea system is showing better outflow along the western side, however, surface convergence is irregular favouring a band to the east and another near to the centre, this seems at the moment to be disrupting the concentration of a singular convergent flow at the lower levels, also the convection to the east of the centre has some subsidence on its western edge, the connection to the mid lat trough appears to be severing. The next six hours will show what potential this system has. 

Future Developments:  The highs advancing east from the Indian Ocean are helping to keep the fronts to the south of the continent. The high in the Tasman Sea will extend a ridge through northern NSW & SE Queensland, with this ridge being kept inland over Queensland by the Coral Sea low, which in turn will keep the inland trough to its west edging slowly westward.

Isolated storms are possible east of the trough from Victoria to northern Queensland, more likely along the ranges & closer to the coast in moister air. Strengthening SE winds along the Queensland coast & a rising swell are the result of a steep E-W pressure gradient between the ridge & the Coral Sea low. Scattered storm activity will be evident in the Top End & tropical Queensland, particularly along the coastline near to the trough through the area.   The trough in Western Australia is moving east with conditions to the west cooler & occasionally showery.  Conditions east of the trough remain hot.  South Australia is positioned between the WA trough & the inland trough through the eastern states & will remain fine through Tuesday, with moisture levels beginning to increase to the west.  The front approaching Tasmania is expected to pass through during Wednesday with temperatures beginning to climb during Tuesday.

Temperatures in Victoria will increase as the wind swings around through the NE - NW during Tuesday.  There is a significant amount of moisture being advected southwards from NSW & this may help to destabilise conditions, particularly in the NE & along the ranges.

Potential Risks: Possible storms along the ranges in Victoria, mainly in the northeast if the trough extends far enough southwards through Tuesday. A watch is maintained over the Coral Sea low.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Possible showers & isolated storms along the ranges in the NE as the trough through NSW extends south.
NSW:  Possible storms east of the trough, particularly along the ranges.   Scattered showers along the coast in the north.
Queensland: Isolated showers & storms in the Tropics & east of the trough, with showers along the coast.
NT: Isolated showers & storms particularly along the coast.
WA: Isolated storms in the tropics, mainly the west Kimberley. Scattered showers & storms associated with the trough through the Gascoyne & Goldfields regions.  Drizzle among the southern coast behind the weak front.
SA: Fine while the state remains between a trough to the west & a trough to the east.
Tasmania: Fine during Tuesday with just the possibility of some fog patches.

Future Developments:  The high will continue to move east strengthening the ridge along the east coast & driving the inland trough further west in NSW. Temperatures will remain mild to warm along the coast, increasing through the west of the state. The low in the Coral Sea will continue moving SW towards the Queensland coast. The interaction between the low approaching from the Coral Sea & the strengthening ridge along the east coast should see strengthening SE winds & increasing shower activity along the Queensland coast over the early part of the week while the interior of the state remains mainly fine and dry.

An infeed of tropical moisture (from the Northern Hemisphere courtesy of Typhoon Mitag) onto the far NW of the continent may help trigger showers & storms. The heat trough in the west will move eastwards from the coast & looks likely to interact with the front during Monday in Western Australia.  A low may form in the western Bight during Monday. 

Potential Risks: Some beach erosion is possible along the Queensland coast due to heavy swells resulting from the interaction between the Coral Sea disturbance and the high moving into the Tasman.   Keep watching the Coral Sea - TC development is still a possibility.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Morning drizzle in the south.  Fine in the north.
NSW:  Isolated showers along the coast are possible with the chance of isolated storms east of the trough, particularly in the north.
Queensland: Coastal showers becoming more frequent with isolated storms across Cape York.
NT: Scattered storm activity over the far northern parts of the Top End.
WA: Isolated showers & storms, particularly in the coastal northern regions.  Isolated showers & storms associated with the trough & front in the south, extending east.
SA: Possible coastal drizzle in an onshore southeasterly flow.
Tasmania: Drizzle in the southwest, clearing.

Future Developments: The trough in New South Wales may trigger storms especially to its east. Fine in the west of the state with conditions warmer west of the trough. A cross equatorial upper flow  to the Top End during the next 48 hours may increase the potential for storm activity in that region.   The mid level disturbance west of Perth should move onshore triggering isolated showers & storms over southern & western areas.  This system currently looks like it may weaken while it moves east over the next 48 hours, and the activity should move E-SE with the system. There are however signs of increasing inflow from the tropics which may help maintain, if not increase the strength of this disturbance.

As the high moves east through the Bight, temperatures in South Australia, Victoria & Tasmania should slowly start to rise early in the week, after a few coastal showers in the SW - SE flow during Sunday.   Pressures in the southeast are expected to remain fairly steady as the high weakens as it moves east, before reaching the Tasman Sea & strengthening early in the week & strengthening a ridge long the Queensland coast.

Potential Risks: The area of persistent convection southwest of the Solomon Islands is worth watching.  Outflow has become better organised.  This area has been active for the past 2 weeks & there is still the potential for a tropical disturbance to develop.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers & drizzle continuing south of the ranges.  Fine in the north.
NSW:  Showers & isolated storms along the trough in the northern part of the state.
Queensland: Showers in the SE from the ex-monsoon cloudband.  Showers & isolated storms in the tropics and along the central & northern east coast near the trough.
NT: Isolated showers & storms over the Top End.
WA: Isolated showers & storms in the SW Land Division, extending east.   Scattered storms in the Kimberley & central eastern areas.
SA: Isolated showers & drizzle in the south, fine in the north.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in the south & west, clearing from most areas.

Future Developments: A weak high may form in the Tasman off the New South Wales coast during Saturday. A mid level disturbance is evident west of Perth with a front approaching from the southwest.  This disturbance will likely weaken as it moves east during the weekend. The large moisture plume across Australia will continue shifting slowly equatorwards as the airstream continues to carry moisture across the Tasman Sea to New Zealand in response to a deepening low in the far south Tasman.  This moisture plume isn't finished yet!!  The surface trough interacting with the moisture plume will trigger showers & scattered storms across much of the state & remain slow moving through the weekend.  The high in the Bight will direct a SE - SW flow over the southeast of the continent during the weekend.

Potential Risks: periods of heavy rain over the North Island of New Zealand.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers & drizzle south of the ranges especially on the weekend mornings.  Fine in the north.
NSW:  Isolated showers along the coast in a moist onshore airstream particularly later in the day.  Possible isolated storms in the far northeast.   Fine elsewhere.
Queensland: Showers and isolated storms over most areas, becoming more frequent over the southern & central east coast & hinterland.
NT:  Isolated showers & storms over the Top End.  Mostly fine in the south.
WA:  Showers & possible thunderstorms in the northern & central parts of the SW Land Division during Saturday under the influence of the mid level disturbance.  Scattered showers & isolated storms in the Pilbara & Kimberley becoming less frequent in the south of the area. 
SA: Isolated showers along the coast, clearing.  Mainly fine elsewhere.
Tasmania: Showers in the west & south in a SW airstream.

Future Developments: The high in the western Bight will continue to move slowly east, with the ridging over SE Australia becoming more general and stronger with the lows to the south of Tasmania keeping the  ridge further north over northern Victoria and southern New South Wales. The Queensland trough will move east towards the coast while the front in the Tasman Sea moves towards New Zealand. The ITCZ is going through a slow weakening at present and remains close to the coastline although still inland.  A NE onshore flow along the tropical Queensland coast may trigger showers. A SE-SW  flow over South Australia will tend more SE-E over Western Australia increasing temperatures to the west.  A moist onshore SE flow following the front moving through the far northeast during Friday may produce showers along the NSW coast but with the western & southern inland becoming mostly fine under the influence of the ridge of high pressure.  Moisture will continue drifting east from the Pilbara for the next few days & will may trigger isolated showers from one side of the continent to the other.

Potential Risks: The high in the Bight.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers south of the ranges, clearing during Friday.  Fine in the north.
NSW:  Possible coastal showers in a SE onshore flow.  Isolated storms near the trough in the far NE corner.
Queensland: Widespread scattered showers over much of the state with isolated thunderstorms east of the trough near the coast.
NT:  Seasonal storm activity in the Top End. Clearing ion the south.
WA:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming less frequent during Friday retreating to the north & northwest.  Drizzle along the SE coast clearing. 
SA: Possible light showers along the coast with showers in the north clearing through Friday.
Tasmania: Showers,  clearing in the NE.

February Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page

Victorian Weather Glass