March 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion
& Report Page
Victoria |
Date |
Name |
Information |
|
|
April Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page |
31 |
. |
Discussion: The high in
the Bight has weakened as it has moved east and is located in the western Bass Strait area
on Saturday night, ridging through Victoria and the southeast corner of New South Wales
into the Tasman Sea. A surface low which formed off the southern Queensland coast during
Saturday morning has been deflected away form the New South Wales coast by the ridge and
slipped slightly south / southeast. The upper low has followed the surface low off
the coast also. Generally lower pressure
remains over the northern part of Australia, while the large area of convection to the
northeast of the Coral Sea also remains. Moist tropical infeed continues onto the Pilbara
and Kimberley coasts of Western Australia, while an active front crosses the southwest of
the state. Moisture from ex-TC Ikala as well as another convective area in the Indian
Ocean (~10 - 15S) are being drawn into this system.
Future Developments: The
high will move through Bass Strait during Sunday and for the first time this autumn, will
become the main influence on the weather of the entire southeast of the continent.
The surface low looks to continue its eastward movement being deflected by the ridge
building into the Tasman with the upper low being caught up in the upper NW flow. The
convective area south of the Solomon Islands should be monitored during Sunday, but shear
needs to decrease before organisation can improve.
Moist tropical infeed will continue over Western
Australia, and this will increase cloud in the western parts of South Australia as the
trough moves east. An active front (sourcing its moisture from 2 separate areas of the
Indian Ocean as noted in the 'Discussion' above), will follow this trough & the
combined system is expected to trigger showers & storms with its passage. An extensive
cold pool follows way SW of Western Australia. South Australia should see rising
temperatures as the winds swing around to the northeast.
Potential Risks: a weak upper low
forming over South Australia is not expected to trigger activity during Sunday.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers in the morning in the south, mainly along the Gippsland
coast.
NSW: Isolated light showers along the coast.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the east coast, with further showers on the
northern parts of Cape York.
NT: Mainly fine.
WA: Showers and isolated storms continuing over the west Kimberley and Pilbara
coasts, extending to the southeast. Showers & storms in the south with the
trough & front as they move east.
SA: Fine in the south with isolated virga patches possible in the west.
Tasmania: Mainly fine after drizzle patches in the west early in the day. |
30 |
. |
Discussion: The high in
the Tasman Sea has begun to move east while the ridge to the east coast of Australia has
weakened and allowed the surface trough to edge east. The upper low has shifted SE
to be near the border between New South Wales & Queensland, and has tilted - the
wraparound cloudband lies across the central coast of New South Wales & has been
responsible for some heavy falls through Friday of up to 75mm. Minor flooding of parts of
the Illawarra & north coast has been reported. Two areas of lower pressure are located along the ITCZ to the
northeast and the northwest of the continent. The high in the Bight has remained
quasi-stationary & weakened slightly. Ridges lie through Bass Strait and to the
west of Tasmania. Tasmania is currently under a cold SW airstream following the front.
Future Developments: The
Tasman high will move east of New Zealand allowing the surface trough to move east off the
coast. This is likely to deepen into a low over water during Saturday off the southern
Queensland coast. Disorganised convection in the Coral Sea is likely to remain & there
are signs that upper outflow is developing - this area should be monitored. The low to the
northwest of Australia continues to feed moisture into the trough over Western Australia.
The front approaching Western Australia is drawing moisture from ex-TC Ikala and is
associated with a strong upper level trough, although this looks likely to peak before
reaching the WA coast. The high in the Bight will weaken slightly as it moves east &
the ridge will remain through Bass Strait and southern Victoria.
Potential Risks: There is a
possibility that the upper low may begin to draw moisture in above ~700hPa from the
outflow originating from the low near to Papua. If this occurs, the system may reintensify
with heavy falls likely to continue over the eastern parts of New South Wales.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers south of the ranges.
NSW: Scattered showers & storms along the central and northern coasts
& adjacent areas, with some heavy falls. Isolated showers on the south coast.
Queensland: Showers clearing from the southeast corner - isolated storms near
to the NSW border.
NT: Isolated showers in the Top End.
WA: Showers and isolated storms in the western Kimberley, Pilbara and
extending to the south and southeast. Showers in the SW as the front enters the state.
SA: Isolated showers in the southeast.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in southern & western regions. Isolated
showers of sleet or snow on the higher peaks are possible. |
|
|
Images of the upper 'Gypsy' low
that has been wandering about Eastern Australia |
29 |
Clyve Herbert |
Some interesting stuff across the
Australian region, the large area of mid and upper cloud over WA seems to be sourcing from
a convective region at about 15 south and 115 east, although this area appears to be under
the pre long wave trough upper north westerly flow (above 300hpa steering), it's sending
an impressive moisture plume across WA. Has anybody noticed the TC at 23 south and
95 east (west of Aus) although weakening its managed to get itself caught up with the top
end of a strong long wave trough and is sliding southeast towards the southwest of WA. The
low over NSW (cold pool) is also maintaining its identity at upper levels with rather good
moisture supply from the east and northeast, what's interesting is this system has started
to pull in some significant tropical moisture down across the Coral Sea which may become
ingested into this upper low today and tonight worth keeping an eye on. |
29 |
Clyve Herbert |
Some interesting stuff over the
Australian region tonight, The Gypsy upper low still active over NSW and appears to be
edging southward!, some interesting soundings with this cold pool i.e. Moree -2C at 700hpa
and below -40C over a large area of NSW above 300hpa, at these altitudes northern NSW is
significantly colder than Tasmania! not bad for March. Meanwhile a tropical moisture plume
extends into the Pilbara region of WA from large storm activity over the Indian Ocean to
the north, this area seems to be responding to 'baroclinic' tendencies ahead of the deep
long wave trough west of WA which seems to be peaking at the moment. |
29 |
. |
Discussion: The high in
the Tasman Sea continues to block the eastward movement of the trough currently
influencing much of eastern Australia's weather. The surface trough is difficult to
pinpoint but extends from central Queensland to the southeastern corner of NSW. The large
upper level low over northern NSW has been moving steadily north during Thursday and is in
southwest Queensland. Storm activity has been widespread through northern New South
Wales and the southern & eastern parts of Queensland, while the southernmost
cirrus band could be seen from Melbourne this afternoon! A large area of organised convection is located northeast of Papua,
while the West Australian trough is beginning to shift eastwards. An upper trough directs
cloud onto the NW West Australian coast. The high in the Bight remains quasi-stationary
and has shown little pressure change over the past 48 hours. Lows are being steered
southwards around this high and then moving northeast to cross Tasmania.
Future Developments: The
highs in the Tasman Sea and the Bight are not expected to move far through Friday,
although the ridge being extended to the NSW coast from the Tasman high looks to weaken
and allow the surface trough through eastern Australia to begin edging slowly east. The
movement of the upper low is less predictable.
The ITCZ is dipping south towards the coastline of
Australia, with the greatest influence likely to be in the Kimberley and Pilbara regions.
The WA trough will begin to move east during Friday, directing hot E - NE winds across
much of the southern part of the state.The high in the Bight will ridge through Bass
Strait and across Victoria, while also sending ridges to the north through South Australia
and south to the west of Tasmania. Patchy cloud near the southern coast of WA
marks the position of an upper 'cool pool' in the area which will move slowly northeast
but is not likely to produce any rain.
Potential Risks: A low to the SW
of Western Australia is drawing tropical moisture from TC Irkala (955hPa 11am) in the
Indian Ocean.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers & drizzle patches south of the ranges, clearing
through Friday.
NSW: Showers and storms over the north & east of the state, becoming more
widespread to the east with heavier falls likely near to the coast & on the ranges.
Queensland: Showers and thunderstorms over the southern & central parts of
the state, becoming confined to the southeast during Friday as the trough moves east.
NT: Isolated showers possible about the west coast of the Top End.
WA: Isolated showers in the Kimberley and Pilbara regions, extending
southwards.
SA: Isolated showers along the coast becoming less frequent.
Tasmania: Showers developing in the south & extending east through the
day. |
28 |
. |
Discussion: The high in
the Tasman has weakened through Wednesday but is still blocking the eastward passage of
the trough over New South Wales. The spectacular upper low is located in northern
New South Wales to the southwest of the surface trough and is continuing to gather
moisture from as far afield as the Gulf of Carpentaria and eastern Bass Strait. The
surface feature extends from Queensland to northern New South Wales . An area of
convection in the Coral Sea just off the coast of Papua is worth monitoring. The
high in the Bight has weakened slightly through Wednesday, and is currently ridging
through Bass Strait. A deep low is located SW of Western Australia at ~40S, rather low
latitudes for this time of year. Future
Developments: The high in the Tasman will continue to block the eastward
movement of the trough which will help it to remain in the same area through Thursday.
The convective area near to Papua will slowly move southeast and is not likely to
affect the Queensland coast at this stage.The high in the Bight continues to ridge through
Bass Strait as well as sending a weak ridge to the northeast through South Australia.
The Kimberley and Pilbara coasts will remain under
the influence of moist tropical infeed from the Indian Ocean. The West Australian
trough will remain just off the coast in response to the position of the upper low in the
area & not move inland until later Thursday / Friday. During Thursday, shower activity
will continue to move southward. The location of a mid level 'cool pool' in the western
Bight which will move slowly northeast may become more obvious on Thursday as cloud
develops in its vicinity. The low to the west of Western Australia will weaken as it moves
east. A front to the southwest of Tasmania should be able to invade far enough to the
northeast to affect Tasmania later Thursday.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers south of the ranges, with showers also possible in the
far east and northeast of the state.
NSW: Showers and storms in the north and northeast, mainly east of the western
slopes. Scattered showers in the southeast corner.
Queensland: Showers east of the trough extending from central parts to the
southeast coast. Storms are likely in the southern part of the state particularly in
the SE quarter.
NT: Isolated showers over the far north Top End are possible.
WA: Isolated showers in the Pilbara extending southwards & also in the
Kimberley along the coast. Drizzle patches along the southern coast.
SA: Isolated showers along the southeast coast & adjacent areas.
Tasmania: Scattered showers becoming more frequent in the south. |
27 |
Clyve Herbert |
An interesting convective area at
155 east and about 14 south (north Coral Sea.) with some upper divergence and
reasonable surface convergence not moving much but is approaching upper northwesterlie
flow ahead of the long wave trough extending through eastern Australia...... We have
another Gypsy (upper ) low over northern NSW, this cold pool has kept an interesting
northeast to northward drift over the past several days, seems to be pressure forcing from
the substantial high in the western Bight....all worth keeping a close look at. What about
that feeble wrap around band coming onto the NSW central coast hardly 60 kilometres wide
in places!. |
27 |
. |
Discussion: Eastern
Australia is host to a rather complex situation tonight with a surface low located to the
northwest of Sydney and an upper low in the Riverina which is steadily moving N / NE. The
trough extends from just east of Tasmania, through eastern Australia and into the
northwest of Western Australia and marks the moisture feed from the Indian Ocean. The high
over New Zealand extends a ridge along the Queensland coast into the tropics. The
ITCZ crosses the eastern edge of Papua-New Guinea, while an area of convective activity is
located in the Arafura Sea NE of Darwin and another is just off the tip of PNG.
Organisation in these areas is improving. A high just south of Western Australia
extends a ridge along the southern WA coast as well as a weak ridge through Tasmania. Future Developments: The upper low
over New South Wales will continue to move N / NE, but only very slowly, while the
850hPa 'cool pool' which crossed the coast near Adelaide will move into north
central NSW during Wednesday, further destabilising conditions. Moisture from the
Indian Ocean will continue to feed into the trough over eastern Australia, and warm, moist
air feeding back around the low from the Tasman Sea may trigger rain periods over southern
Victoria with some heavy falls. High moisture levels should see isolated storms generally
along the length of the trough with more widespread shower activity also through the south
central as well as western regions of Queensland.
An upper low off the West Australian coast will
approach during Wednesday while the WA trough will remain just off the west coast and
deepen. South Australia will increasingly come under the influence of the high to
the west with generally fine conditions except in the south where showers will persist.
Potential Risks: Heavy falls
are possible associated with the returning cloudband in southern Victoria. Heavy falls are
also a risk in New South Wales especially in the northeast.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Rain periods in the east of the state, scattered showers south of the
ranges. Watch the returning cloudband....
NSW: Showers and storms will be concentrated in the eastern half of the state,
particularly in the north and along the trough.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the tip of Cape York, showers & storms
likely in south central & western districts, moving east.
NT: Isolated showers and storms over the northern Top End.
WA: Scattered showers are likely in the Pilbara, extending south.
Isolated storms in the Kimberley.
SA: Scattered light showers along the coast, decreasing.
Tasmania: Isolated showers, mainly in the north, becoming isolated. |
26 |
Clyve Herbert |
There's an interesting cloud splotch
northeast of Darwin with a rather good central convective core, outflow is
limited, this area has moved off the central New Guinea highland region and seems
associated with enhanced surface convergence. Over the central Indian Ocean is what
appears to be a large and significant TC, the outflow of which can be traced to
Australia. |
26 |
. |
Discussion: The high in
the Tasman Sea has weakened and moved southeast during Monday, but still sends a ridge
along the Queensland coast. A weak area of low pressure is located in southwest New South
Wales along the trough currently extending from Tasmania and Victoria and into the
Northern Territory at ~20S. A front is crossing South Australia. A weak low is
located in Queensland near the Gulf of Carpentaria. Disorganised convection is present in
the Arafura Sea. A strong high is approaching the SW of Western Australia and sending a
ridge along the south coast of that state. Future
Developments: During Tuesday the high in the Tasman Sea will maintain the
ridge along the Queensland coast. The surface low (and associated fronts) will move
slowly through southeastern Australia, with its eastward movement hindered by the ridge
from the high in the Tasman. The area of convection in the Arafura & Coral Seas close
to the equator will continue to influence the extreme northern coastal areas of Queensland
and Northern Territory. A weak West Australian trough will form off the coast and move
east towards the coast during Tuesday. Temperatures will rise ahead of this trough.
The high approaching Western Australia will
continue to ridge along the coast as well as sending a weaker ridge to the south of
Tasmania. This will keep the fronts approaching in the westerly flow south of our area.
The upper low near Adelaide looks to continue its movement northeast & then
slow. The southern part of New South Wales will be under the direct influence of
this low which is drawing colder air northwards from the southwest which will serve to
destabilise conditions. This whole system may stall over the next day or so.
Potential Risks: There is a
risk that the low over southeastern Australia may become cutoff later Tuesday or
Wednesday. The wildcard is the location of the upper low.......
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers and scattered storms, mainly in the north & east.
NSW: Widespread patchy rain & scattered thunderstorms, particularly in the
southern half of the state.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the east coast. Isolated showers and
storms over Cape York & around the Gulf. Showers & storms are possible in the SW.
NT: Isolated showers and storms in the Top End and also developing in the far
south.
WA: Isolated showers & storms over the Pilbara, Kimberley and along the
trough.
SA: Scattered showers & storms in the south, extending to the northeast &
then clearing from the south later Tuesday / Wednesday.
Tasmania: Scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly in the northeast. |
25 |
Clyve Herbert |
A rather shallow wind change through here
at Leopold at 0903hrs, wind swung from 010 to 190-200 degrees, again another change
similar to the previous two this month, with a very thin moist low level surge moving
along the coast accompanied by low level fracto cu about 150 to 200m and a marked increase
in humidity locally. The mid levels look conditionally unstable so we can look forward to
some general activity across Vic today, especially with the potential for a region of
positive vorticity over the state later today and tonight. |
25 |
. |
Discussion: The
weakening high in the Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the northern New South Wales and
Queensland coasts. The high west of Western Australia extends a ridge along the southern
coastline of that state. A low pressure systems is located west of Tasmania with a slow
moving, almost stationary trough extending through western Victoria during Sunday
night. Another low is located to the southwest of the first low and has been moving
northeast. Future Developments:
The high in the Tasman Sea will continue to direct moisture onto eastern Australia. The
ridge along the New South Wales & Queensland coasts will remain, although it will be a
little further inland through Monday. In the south, this will help stall the trough from
moving off the coast. The surface trough, which traces from Tasmania, through Victoria and
northeast South Australia to Western Australia is likely to remain quasi-stationary for
the next 24 - 48 hours, and with a buildup of moisture levels over the state, will trigger
showers & possible storms through much of Monday and Tuesday. Tropical infeed from the
Indian Ocean into this trough is still continuing.
The low near 50S in the Bight looks to continue its
northeastward movement as the upper trough strengthens. . The high to the southwest of
Perth will ridge both along the coast and towards the southeast helping to maintain the
northeast movement of the low.
Potential Risks: The cool
pool in the mid levels is being guided northeastwards & looks to develop further in
the southeastern parts of South Australia / western Victoria during the next 48 hours.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers and scattered storms through the state.
NSW: Isolated coastal showers in the far northeast & possible isolated
storms in the south and west with the trough.
Queensland: Isolated showers on the very top of Cape York. Coastal
showers along the eastern tropical coast are possible.
NT: Isolated showers and storms over the Top End, mainly near the coast.
WA: Isolated showers & storms over the Kimberley coast and through the
Pilbara and towards the southeast. Isolated showers along the southern coast, clearing.
SA: Scattered showers along the southern coast, possible storms in the northeast.
Tasmania: Showers & isolated storms in the north & west clearing,
redeveloping later Monday. |
24 |
Nick Sykes |
Today looks very borderline for Vic,
maybe a shower or 2 down the SW. Tomorrow holds a bit more promise with a trough slowly
crossing the state and a bit more moisture. Things really become interesting on Tuesday.
The models seem to be stalling a trough in the Vic area, this combined with the upper
level cold pool moving in from the west and things look like they could become quite
interesting. |
24 |
. |
Discussion: A strong
high in the Tasman Sea remains slow moving and directs a ridge along the Queensland coast
as well as ridging *backwards* through Bass Strait. Ridging backwards has been a feature
of this particular high since it arrived on our shores a few days ago. An upper low
has developed over the northern Tasman Sea. Pressures over the north of Australia remain
low with the lowest pressure over the northwest. A broad area of convective activity
remains over Papua-New Guinea and the Arafura Sea. A trough lies through inland
Queensland. A surface low has formed in the
Bight & is currently being steered east by the ridge of high pressure following it.
This ridge extends along the southern West Australian coast from a strong high located in
the Indian Ocean. Moist infeed from the tropical depression located in the Indian Ocean
continues and has strengthened over the past 24 hours as the depression has deepened. A
surface low currently moving northeast is evident well south of Western Australia at ~50S.
Future Developments: The low
in the Tasman Sea will remain quasi-stationary through Sunday, directing moist onshore
winds onto the central & northern coasts of New South Wales and the southern &
central Queensland coasts, while the ridge remains slightly inland rather than along the
coast. Pressure in the north of the continent will remain lower in the west, where the
Kimberley and eastern Pilbara will be under the moist inflow from the Indian Ocean,
which is being drawn into the convergence area (trough) moving east through southern
Australia. As this system moves into drier conditions, it may begin to weaken
somewhat.
The surface low to the far south of Western
Australia on Saturday night will move northeast into the Bight during Sunday, but there is
a risk that may be deflected to the east or south-east by the strengthening surface ridge
along the West Australian coast. Temperatures ahead of the trough over the southeast
of the continent will increase as the winds shift more northwesterly.
Potential Risks: A middle
level 'cool pool' in the Bight currently moving NE should be watched for an increase in
activity.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Fine except for isolated showers & possible high based storms in the
west as the trough moves east.
NSW: Isolated showers along the central and northern coasts.
Queensland: Showers possible over far northern Cape York and in the
southeast. Late storms in the west of the state are a slim chance.
NT: Showers & isolated storms over the Top End coast, mainly in the NE
& W.
WA: Isolated showers & storms in the Kimberley and Pilbara. Drizzle
along the south coast, clearing.
SA: Isolated showers and high based storms associated with the trough, mainly in
the south of the state, moving east.
Tasmania: Fine. |
23 |
Clyve Herbert |
A very nice baroclinic cloud area
over almost all of south China, the only places missing out are along the coast
including Hong Kong!, interesting to see that the former tropical low now west of the
southern Philippines still has an upper outflow signature as it moves over the South China
Sea. In the Southern Hemisphere, a very interesting area has developed near the Cocos
Islands with a large central high-topped overcast area with some outflow extending towards
Australia, this region has some significant low level convergence at the moment. There
also seems to be a continuation of a weak monsoonal surge over the north of Australia
which may intensify as the moderate strength long wave trough deepens over the western
half of Australia over the next 24 hours. There
seems to be some interest in the development of a significant cold pool over the south
east of Aus later Monday or into Tuesday, there seems to be some risk of this at the
moment especially if the large high west of Perth remains slow moving and extends a ridge
to the south east which may aid in the 'slingshot' of cold air towards the northeast. It
will be interesting to watch the Aust Bight region over the next 24 to 48 hours for the
appearance of a cold pool especially at 500hpa. Another factor is the potential deepening
of the upper long wave trough on Sunday and the intensification of the sub tropical jet.
The region of the western Aus Bight is already showing positive vorticity. |
23 |
Nick Sykes |
Most of the models are now going for a
decent upper level cold pool to develop in the Bight region and then most have it tracking
NE. This cold pool should trigger a surface low, location uncertain but given the history
of these events the low breeding ground near Kangaroo Island is the best bet (BoM tipping
this location).
Now for Victoria things could get rather interesting. Some possible consequences of this
development is for the stalling of a trough over Vic on mon/tues, increasing our storm
chances.
Grunty cold air Cb's in the cold air field, most likely in the Adelaide region. Some nice
storms if the upper level cold pool makes it NE enough and hits some moisture over Eastern
Australia.
It is all up in the air at the moment, lots depends on if a low forms, where it forms and
how fast it moves. All these should become clearer in the next day or so. |
23 |
. |
Discussion: The high
currently located in the Tasman Sea has migrated rapidly through Bass Strait during Friday
and strengthened & sends a strong ridge along the New South Wales coast. A
trough lies through Queensland which can be traced from Wyndham in Western Australia to
New Zealand's Cook Strait and on southeast. Pressure remains low over the northern part of
the continent. The West Australian trough is interacting with a front currently crossing
southern western Australia. A high is approaching Western Australia. A disorganised area
of convection is apparent in the Arafura Sea. Future
Developments: The high in the Tasman Sea will strengthen and extend a broad
ridge through northern New South Wales and coastal Queensland to the tropics. A moist
northeast onshore flow will affect the central and northern parts of New South Wales,
while Queensland will feel the effect of southeasterlies. Inland away form the coast in
both states, temperatures will increase through the weekend. Isolated showers and
storms are likely along Cape York, mainly in the west as well as the northeastern coast of
the Top End as the tropical moist infeed continues although weaker than in recent days.
The Indian Ocean northwest of Western Australia and
to the south of Java is currently under the influence of an upper high & this will
help to suppress shower activity along the Kimberley coast. The trough in West Australia
(south of 20deg S) will continue to move eastwards in association with the front and
affect South Australia during the weekend. This trough is currently a strong area of
convergence and this may enhance activity as the trough moves eastward through
Saturday as moist infeed to the area from the Indian Ocean continues. South Australia will
see increasing cloud and rising temperatures through the weekend with winds swinging
around to the NW ahead of the front.
Potential Risks: A low may
develop in the Bight between 35 & 40 deg S.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Fine & warmer. Possible early fogs in the south.
NSW: Very isolated coastal showers in the far NE.
Queensland: Isolated storms along the trough, moving northeast.
Isolated showers and storms over Cape York, mainly on the western side.
NT: Isolated showers and storms mainly over the Top End coast, particularly
in the east.
WA: Isolated showers and storms associated with and moving east with the
trough & front. A possible shower in the Pilbara with activity extending
southeast towards the Goldfields.
SA: Possible virga & isolated high based storms in the west.
Tasmania: Warmer & mainly fine. |
22 |
. |
Discussion: The slow
moving high in the Bight has edged southeast along the South Australian coastline,
strengthening during Wednesday. A ridge extends part way up the New South Wales coast
while the surface trough lags over the far northeast corner of the state and southeast
Queensland. This trough can be traced to the Barkly Tableland area in the northwest
of the state. Lower pressures remain over
the northern parts of Australia again while the area over the Arafura Sea, directly north
of the continent is occupied by an extensive area of cloud. The West Australian trough is
located inland and there is a front approaching the coast.
Future Developments: The
high will move through Bass Strait to the Tasman Sea during Thursday, and will continue to
ridge along the New South Wales coast, with a weak trough lying down the west of the
ranges in both New South Wales and Queensland. During Thursday, this trough will
deepen slightly and move westwards as the ridge strengthens. The ridge will extend to the
tropical coast and remain broad.
The West Australian trough will move inland away
from the coast with increasing temperatures to its east & more humid, cooler
conditions along the coast & just inland. The front moving across Western Australia is
collecting moisture from the Indian Ocean ~ 20S with a steepening west-east temperature
gradient during Thursday, then weakening as the system moves east towards South Australia.
South Australia should see increasing temperatures with NE - N winds through Thursday
& mainly fine conditions. Victoria will remain mostly fine with temperatures
rising as the wind backs through the NE towards the NW over the next day or so.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Fine. Areas of fog possible.
NSW: Isolated showers and storms in the far northeast of the state, with
possible storms west of the ranges, mainly in the north along the trough.
Queensland: Isolated showers & storms particularly along the southern and
central coasts during the later afternoon and evening. Showers & isolated storms
over the top of Cape York.
NT: Showers & storms becoming more frequent over the Top End. Some
heavy falls.
WA: Isolated showers extending from the Pilbara southeastward. Showers
moving east with the trough & becoming less frequent. Drizzle patches in the SW,
clearing through the morning.
SA: Fine, except for the chance of isolated light showers or virga from the
mid-level cloudband in the northeast. Fog patches along the southeast coast.
Tasmania: isolated showers, mainly in the west, clearing. |
21 |
. |
Discussion: The high in
the Bight strengthened slightly during Wednesday and remains in the head of the Bight
extending a ridge through southern Victoria to the Tasman Sea and ridging *backwards* to
the Indian Ocean. A low is to the southeast of Tasmania extending a front towards the
southern coast of New South Wales. A surface trough is located through northeastern NSW
and is triggering storms there, & this trough can be traced back to Western Australia.
A ridge lies along the Queensland coast. The cross-equatorial moisture infeed has
triggered widespread shower and storm activity over the Top End. There are signs of
vorticity within the baroclinic cloud leaf currently located in the central parts of
Western Australia which marks the location of an upper trough. The deep low way to the SW
of Western Australia is almost stationary. Future
Developments: The high in the Bight will remain only slow moving parallel
to the coast & strengthen slightly through Thursday. The low in the southern Tasman
Sea will direct a front along the New South Wales coast, while the trough in the north of
the state will continue to edge northeast only slowly & will traverse southern
Queensland through Thursday. The ridge along the Queensland coast will weaken as the high
moves into the Pacific. Showers and scattered storms are likely to continue in the
Tropics for as long as the inflow from the north & northeast is maintained. The
main area of activity is likely to continue its westward movement towards the Kimberley.
The area of cloud in central Western Australia is
likely to move slowly southeast, but is not likely to produce much rain. There is
however, a strengthening infeed of moisture from the Indian Ocean south of Java which may
change the dynamics of this area & a watch should be maintained for developments over
the next 24 hours. The West Australian trough will deepen and move east during Thursday
with temperatures increasing east of the trough, while a front followed by colder air
aloft approaches the west coast.
South Australia will remain under the influence of
the high with mainly fine conditions and light winds, while Victoria and Tasmania will be
under a more southwesterly flow ahead of the high with patchy showers.
Potential Risks: The baroclinic
cloud leaf in Western Australia may develop into a middle level low.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers along the coast & south of the ranges becoming less
frequent through Thursday.
NSW: Isolated showers along the central coast. Scattered showers
and storms along the trough in the northeast & northern inland becoming confined to
the far NE corner.
Queensland: Showers & isolated storms over the northern parts of Cape
York with rain periods occasional. Isolated storms through the southern inland and
SE corner associated with the trough & moving northeast.
NT: Scattered showers & storms over the Top End, becoming more frequent
in the west.
WA: Isolated showers and storms in the Kimberley, more scattered in the
Pilbara & isolated showers associated with the midlevel cloud patch in the central
districts. Possible storms in the Goldfields and to the east.
SA: mainly fine except for the chance of a shower along the coast in the southeast.
Tasmania: Scattered showers becoming less frequent. |
20 |
. |
Discussion: The high
centred at the head of the Bight extends a ridge through southern Victoria and Bass
Strait. There is a low pressure system passing south of Tasmania with a front to
cross Tasmania. The high in the Tasman Sea is ridging along the Queensland coast.
Moderately low pressures remain over the north of Australia and a surface trough is
evident extending from NW Western Australia through the Northern Territory to the NE of
New South Wales. The West Australian trough is located inland from the west coast and a
complex low is situated SW of Western Australia. Future Developments: The high in the Bight
will remain quasi-stationary and will ridge through Victoria to the Tasman Sea during
Wednesday. A front associated with a low south of Tasmania will pass through that
state and also affect Victoria south of the ranges. The trough in northeastern New South
Wales will move only very slowly towards SE Queensland, while the ridge along the
sub-tropical & tropical coasts will strengthen further.
Moisture associated with the convergence area in
the northern Coral Sea will trigger spells of rain over the Cape York region (heavier on
the eastern side) while the cross-equatorial flow will continue to increase moisture
levels in the Top End & Kimberley. The Indian Ocean midlevel moisture feed
continues to trace through the Pilbara to the east of Australia. The West Australian
trough will deepen and move east during Wednesday, with increasing temperatures to the
east & a moist NW flow onto the coast to its west. Much of South Australia will
remain under the influence of the high in the Bight, while south of the ranges in Victoria
and Tasmania will feel the effects of the front.
Potential Risks: Maybe an isolated
storm in SE Queensland sneaking in from over the NSW border.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers in the south, mainly along the coast.
NSW: Storms in the far northeast extending to the northern inland.
Possible light showers on the far south coast.
Queensland: Rain periods over the Cape York area & possible isolated
showers in the Barkly region.
NT: Isolated storms across the Top End, particularly in the west.
WA: Scattered showers & storms in the SW Land Division, extending east.
Isolated showers & storms in the Pilbara & Kimberley, extending inland at
times. Isolated storms possible east of the heat trough.
SA: Mainly fine except for isolated showers in the SE corner.
Tasmania: Showers, scattered tending to widespread at times & then
decreasing behind the front. Colder conditions |
19 |
Clyve Herbert |
Seems to be a bit of a build up of
moisture over Cape York area with an interesting although small region of surface
vorticity just east of Cooktown, upper outflow is weak, this area of activity can be
traced far to the east with a narrow band of storms. Also there is a large area of strong
upper divergence well northeast of Fiji seems to moving slowly westward, the surface
convergence is rather disorganised at the moment. There seems to have been a marked change
in upper directional shear (above 300hpa) from the usual easterlies to a weak
north-westerly northwest of Australia over Indonesia - is it possible that the present
weakening long wave trough over Australia extends its influence this far north?. |
19 |
. |
Discussion: A
trough & front are currently passing through South Australia, Victoria & Tasmania.
A series of lows is embedded in the westerly flow at ~45-50S. A high centred west
of Perth is sending a weak ridge into the north of the Bight. A large high is located in
the Tasman Sea / Coral Sea ridging along the Queensland coast. An area of low
pressure is evident in the Pilbara region. Much of New South Wales and Queensland remains
cloud free with high temperatures. Future
Developments: The trough & front will pass into the Tasman Sea by
Tuesday while the trough looks to be captured in New South Wales by the positioning of the
high in the Tasman which will strengthen. A large amount of mid-level moisture being
advected towards New South Wales which has originated from the Indian Ocean, which may
help destabilise conditions in the northeast.
The ridge along the Queensland coast will
strengthen and become broader. Cross - equatorial moisture is being directed towards the
Top End during the next few days & may trigger further monsoonal activity after
midweek. The West Australian trough, although weaker than over the past month or so,
will reform inland from the west coast & temperatures will begin to rise from
Wednesday. Much of South Australia will remain under the influence of the high
moving east through the Bight, although teh far southeast corner may feel the effects of
the fronts as they move east.
The baric ridge will extend across Victoria during
Tuesday, keeping the lingering trough north in New South Wales while a series of fronts
will cross southern parts of Victoria as well as Tasmania through mid-week.
Potential Risks: A weak surface
low may form off the NSW central coast during Tuesday.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Coastal showers south of the ranges, particularly in the SW. Possibility
of an isolated storm in the far northeast along the ranges.
NSW: Showers and storms are likely along the coast central and north
coasts, and also the northern inland associated with the trough.
Queensland: Showers along the eastern tropical coast tending to rain at
times, with possible light showers lingering in the western Gulf region.
NT: Isolated coastal showers along the north & western parts of the Top
End.
WA: Scattered showers along the Pilbara & Kimberley coasts extending
inland to the southeast. Dry elsewhere.
SA: Scattered coastal showers in the south.
Tasmania: Showers tonight, increasing in the west during Tuesday. |
18 |
. |
Discussion: Weak
surface highs are located southwest of Victoria, in the Coral Sea & to the west of
Western Australia. A weak surface trough lies through western Queensland. An
upper level high remains over much of the continent. A front is passing through
southern Western Australia & will affect Tasmania & Victoria during Monday.
A trough is moving into the western regions of South Australia. Future Developments: A front will pass through
South Australia during Sunday evening / Monday morning & through Victoria and Tasmania
during Monday & New South Wales on Tuesday. Temperatures will rise rapidly ahead
of the front as the winds shift more NW. Temperatures will remain high in Queensland
and the weak surface trough will move slowly west. Pressures are beginning to fall
over the northwest of Australia.
Cooler SW winds will help to moderate temperatures
in the southern parts of Western Australia and South Australia as the front moves east.
The longwave trough currently is weakening as it moves east, but is advecting moisture
southeast through South Australia and into Victoria ahead of the front.
The high will move into the western Bight region
and strengthen, sending a ridge to the northern part of the Bight by midweek, while a
series of fronts will pass to the south of the continent, affecting Tasmania and the
southern parts of South Australia and Victoria.
Potential Risks: The risk of
storms in Victoria is largely dependent on the amount of moisture in the middle levels
advected across the state by the longwave trough ahead of the the front.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers & storms, mainly south of the ranges may be
associated with the front.
NSW: Fine...
Queensland: Isolated showers along the northern east coast & also the
western Gulf region.
NT: Possible isolated showers along the northern coast & near the Gulf.
WA: Isolated showers and storms in the Kimberley & Pilbara.
Clearing coastal showers in the south.
SA: Isolated showers in the south are possible following the front.
Tasmania: Showers in the west & south becoming more widespread through
Monday. |
17 |
Clyve Herbert |
The long wave trough is presently moving
through WA and weakening but some mid level moisture seems to becoming drawn into and
along the eastern pre upper trough axis, with a bit of luck some of this mid level aqua
may reach western Vic ahead of the approaching trough and cold front due across
south-eastern Aus on Monday. Meanwhile at the far northward extension of the 300hpa
long wave trough there has been a reinvigorisation of the I.T.C.Z west of Australia (some
of the outflow is moving towards the Pilbura) this region may propagate eastward over the
next several days and bring some much needed rain to top up the north Australian Monsoon
season, a bit of a wish forecast but never mind keep your fingers crossed. |
17 |
. |
Discussion: Generally
settled over Australia with an upper high over much of the country. A weak high in
the eastern Bight has been quasi-stationery for the past day or so while another
centre has formed in the north Tasman Sea. The ITCZ is located well north of
Australia. Cloud currently moving across the SE corner of the continent is being directed
around the upper high. Moist inflow from the equatorial regions is triggering
showers along the coast in the NW of Western Australia. Future Developments: The high pressure currently
over much of the continent is expected to remain the dominating influence over the next
day or so, although pressures should continue to drop slowly as the highs weaken.
Temperatures should rise generally through Sunday excepting in Tasmania and the southern
parts of Western Australia. The trough through western Queensland is inactive.
Showers will continue in the Pilbara &
Kimberley while the moist inflow continues. A deep low with an associated cold air field
is located SW of Western Australia and is moving ENE but only the southern parts of WA are
likely to be affected. A series of fronts is passing to the south of the continent and
affecting Tasmania.
Potential Risks: nil current
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers overnight with early drizzle south of the ranges.
NSW: Fine.....
Queensland: Isolated showers along the east coast. Isolated showers in
the western Gulf area.
NT: Very isolated showers possible mainly over the NE Top End.
WA: Isolated storms in the Pilbara & Kimberley, mainly along the coast
but extending inland at times. Light showers in the south associated with the trough
in the SE & the approaching front.
SA: Fine except for possible coastal showers in the SE in the morning and in
the SW later Sunday with the approach of the trough.
Tasmania: Rain easing through Sunday before increasing early in the week with
the next front. |
16 |
. |
Discussion: A
weakening high is situated in the eastern Bight / western Bass Strait region and ridges
into the Tasman Sea and along the east coast. A surface trough extends from NW Queensland
to SE New South Wales, remaining west of the ranges. Pressures in the north of
Australia remain higher than previous weeks. A front & associated longwave trough are
crossing the southern parts of Western Australia. Future Developments: The high in the
Bight will continue to weaken through Saturday and Sunday as it edges slowly east through
southern Victoria and Bass Strait, and will restrengthen in the Tasman Sea. The trough
will remain through inland Queensland and New South Wales but will be largely inactive.
The broad upper northwesterly ahead of the trough
currently moving across Western Australia, is transporting moisture from the Indian Ocean
in the region of 10 -15S southeast across Australia. The southern portion of this
trough will accelerate through Saturday while the northerly portion will lag behind. The
Goldfields area of Western Australia will see shower activity during Saturday with the
passage of the trough.
Away from the influence of this trough, a large
upper high will stabilise conditions over much of the continent. Tasmania will remain
under the influence of a strong SW airstream with embedded fronts moving across the state.
The southern parts of Victoria will see scattered showers develop with the approach
of a front.
Potential Risks: The NW extension
of the trough which can be traced from New South Wales, through Queensland and the
Northern Territory to NW Western Australia may trigger isolated storms in NW Western
Australia as stronger moisture infeed from the equatorial regions develops through
Saturday.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers in coastal areas later Saturday. mainly fine elsewhere.
NSW: Generally fine.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the central and northern parts of the east
coast. Isolated storms in the NW near the Gulf of Carpentaria.
NT: Isolated storms possible along the northern & western coasts north of
Daly Waters.
WA: Isolated showers & storms along the Kimberley & Pilbara coasts.
Scattered showers & storms associated with the trough in the Goldfields
districts, moving east.
SA: Mainly fine
Tasmania: Showers with periods of rain at times. |
15 |
Clyve Herbert |
It's not often that
almost the whole of Australia is cloud free like today, I found
the extent of this long wave trough approaching WA over the last two days very interesting, this cloud band is now contracting south-eastward
towards the low south of WA and the upper cloud band is dissipating
to the east of this low in strong upper divergence. There
appears to be a very strong phase of upper subsidence over
almost all of Australia at the moment, although this appears
to be waning with the weakening of the surface anticyclone
over the next two days. Another interesting observation are the rather colder than normal sea surface temps south of Victoria and through
Bass Strait, this time last year were around 21 to 22c and only
showing 17 to 18c for March 2002, it will be interesting to
see what affect this will have on autumn min temps over the
next few weeks especially in southern Vic. |
15 |
David Jones |
....thought it
worth noting the flip-side of the approaching long-wave
trough which is the enormous dome of HOT air edging south
into the Great Australian Bight and toward SE Australia as I type.. Thickness values are already very high through much of southern Aus, as
attested by the exceptionally
warm conditions in Western Australia yesterday (40C
Kalgoorlie - a near record for so late in season, Perth Ap 37C).. and should approach the high 560s/low 570s in much of SA, Vic, and NSW by
Sunday. By Monday, the associated 850hPa temperatures in these same
regions are "progged" to be in the 20s which in
theory could trigger high 30s to even 40s temperatures.
The models are relatively consistent in suggesting far south coastal
parts will have condition tempered on all days but Monday by
low level onshore flow. As for the front... I have a horrible feeling
that this is going to turn into a fizzer as the associated
low pressure system quickly occludes and cold air advection
on the western side of the long-wave trough dies away.
Probably, our best chance for weather is thunder-storms with the front on Monday, though I expect this to be a rather dry front (like last
Mondays), and possible follow-up frontal activity next week, beyond
the accurate range of the models. |
15 |
. |
Discussion: The
slow moving high in the eastern Bight is ridging through Bass Strait and along the east
coast, with a trough lying inland of this west of the ranges in New South Wales and
western Queensland. The low near to New Caledonia is continuing to become more
organised. Pressures over the northern regions of Australia remain moderate. The West
Australian heat trough lies across the SW of the state and a front, associated with the
approaching long wave trough in the Indian Ocean and a low in the western Bight is nearing
Western Australia. Future
Developments: The high in the Bight will ridge through southern Victoria
and Bass Strait and establish a new centre in the Tasman Sea during the next day or so
while a ridge will remain along the east coast. The trough through inland eastern
Australia will edge slightly west through Friday & weaken during the early part of the
weekend. Temperatures will rise in NSW & Queensland. The low near to New
Caledonia will continue to move southeast and not affect Queensland. Isolated
showers and storms are possible along the far northern coastline of Australia,
particularly in the western Gulf country and also along the West Australian coast as the
moisture infeed from the Indian Ocean increases.
A front will cross the southern part of WA during
Friday & interaction with the approaching long wave trough may see increased shower
and storm activity in the west particularly south of ~27S. Shower activity
associated with this trough will move SE as the trough crosses the west coast. The
field of cold air behind this trough is being sandwiched between this trough and the one
following, which also shows significant activity for early in the season.
Mid to high level cloud will increase in the west
of South Australia but little if any rain is expected during Friday or Saturday. The
front crossing Tasmania and the SW flow behind will bring cooler showery conditions
tending to rain at times.
Potential Risks: The low near New
Caledonia may organise further & begin to deepen. The lows around the Cocos
Island area still bear watching.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers, more likely drizzle, near the coast in the mornings,
clearing. Fine otherwise.
NSW: Isolated showers and storms inland associated with the trough west
of the Divide, particularly in the north.
Queensland: Showers along the east coast & possible storms in the western
Gulf country extending to the SE along the trough.
NT: Isolated showers & storms possible along the Top End coastline.
WA: Isolated storms about the Kimberley. Showers & isolated storms
developing over much of the southern parts of the state.
SA: Fine...
Tasmania: Showers tending to rain periods, particularly in the south. |
14 |
Clyve Herbert |
The long wave trough west of WA is
looking good this afternoon with the sub tropical jet dipping into the far tropics and
scooping up some moisture, then throwing it southeast towards southwest WA. A cold
pool at 500hpa can be seen at about 30 south and near 105 east (eastern Indian Ocean) and
this is the pivot area for vorticity. The cold air field to the south and west is
impressive, in fact the whole systems seems a little unusual for this time of the year. If
the vorticity centre deepens over the next 12 hours this may aid in the transfer of
moisture into WA worth keeping a close look at. Meanwhile, there is a positive area of
convection north of New Caledonia with reasonable upper divergence - the surface
convergence seems a little on the weak side but this area is looking ok for further
development. |
14 |
. |
Discussion: The
high in the Bight continues to ridge through Bass Strait and then along the east coast,
halting the eastward movement of the inland trough. Areas of low pressure remain
near New Caledonia & in the Indian Ocean south of Indonesia. The ITCZ remains to the
north of Australia and the pressure over the north of the continent remains higher than in
previous weeks. There is an approaching long wave trough west of Western Australia. Future Developments: The high in the
Bight is expected to remain quasi-stationary over the next day or so and will strengthen
the ridge through Bass Strait and along the east coast. The inland trough will edge
slowly westwards through Queensland and New South Wales as the ridge strengthens.
The trough in the Indian Ocean approaching Western
Australia is tilting and starting to pick up tropical moisture from the area to the
southwest of Java and this could trigger shower and storm activity over the next 48 hours
in the Gascoyne & southern Pilbara regions. The West Australian heat trough will hover
around the coast during Thursday maintaining hot conditions in the south but with
increasing cloud. South Australia & Victoria will remain under the influence of
the high which will direct SE winds over much of the southeast of the continent.
Potential Risks: There is a large
cold air field in the Indian Ocean approaching Western Australia behind the longwave
trough which extends to ~30S & is still expanding north. It may reach our
longitudes & give parts of southern Australia a cool interlude.
Also worth watching are the areas near to the Cocos
Islands in the Indian Ocean & the area of convection west of Vanuatu in the Coral Sea.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle patches along the coast with possible areas of fog, clearing.
NSW: Isolated storms inland, particularly in the north. Isolated
coastal showers.
Queensland: Isolated showers & storms in the tropics & interior
adjacent to the trough. Isolated showers along the coast.
NT: Isolated showers & storms, mainly in the Gulf country & along the
trough in the Tennant Creek area.
WA: Showers and storms in the Gascoyne & southern Pilbara, extending
SE.
SA: Fine except for possible early fogs in the SE.
Tasmania: Isolated light showers, scattered at times, particularly in the
south & west. |
13 |
Clyve Herbert |
An interesting long wave trough west of
Western Australia extending to almost 15-12south and a rather broad pre upper
north-westerly ahead of it, will be interesting if this upper system will draw any of the
tropical moisture towards Aus over the next few days. |
13 |
. |
Discussion: The
high in the Bight is ridging along the east coast of Australia and a trough lies through
Queensland and New South Wales west of the ranges. The low in the Tasman Sea is
still evident. The ITCZ lies north of the Australian continent . The West
Australian heat trough is positioned along the west coast. An area of low pressure
is evident in the Indian Ocean. A weak front is approaching Tasmania. Future Developments: The slow moving
high in the Bight looks to strengthen, which will aid in the strengthening of the ridge
along the east coast during Wednesday. The inland trough through Queensland and New
South Wales will edge slowly west. Temperatures along the coastal strips in both states
will remain mild in the onshore flow, while inland Queensland can be expected to be very
warm to hot. Pressures in the northern part of Australia will rise over the next day
or so before the next intensification of the trough.
The heat trough in Western Australia should move
inland allowing a moist NW flow over the coast while keeping temperatures down along the
coast. The high in the Bight will continue to direct SE winds over Victoria and South
Australia keeping conditions partly cloudy and mild in the south & warmer & clear
in the north. Tasmania will see occasional showers, mostly in the south with the
westerly flow.
Potential Risks: The area south of
Java around the Christmas & Cocos Islands should be watched over the next day or so
for possible developments.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle along the coast in the morning is possible.
NSW: Isolated storms inland, particularly in the north. Isolated
coastal showers.
Queensland: Isolated showers & storms in the tropics & northern
interior becoming less frequent in the east.
NT: Isolated showers & storms, particularly along the northern part of
the Top End & in the SW.
WA: Isolated showers & storms in the north, possibly extending into the
Gascoyne.
SA: Early showers in the southeast, clearing. Fine in the remainder.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in the south. |
12 |
. |
Discussion: The
high pressure system in the head of the Bight is ridging through southern Victoria and
Bass Strait, while the high in the Tasman near New Zealand continues to send a ridge along
the east coasts of New South Wales and Queensland. The trough passing through
Victoria on Monday can be traced through 5 states to the NW coast of Western Australia.
The moisture feeding into this trough has its origins over the Indian Ocean. The ITCZ
continues to lie north of the continent. A weak heat trough is evident just inland
from Western Australia's west coast. Future
Developments: The high in the Bight will strengthen as it moves east
through Bass Strait & will strengthen the ridge along the east coast, effectively
halting the eastward movement of the trough & maintaining its position west of the
ranges in New South Wales. This trough extends through inland Queensland and New South
Wales and looks to deepen and remain quasi-stationery over the next day or so. The low in
the Tasman Sea is weakening and moving slowly SW and losing its cutoff status as the high
moves east. There is a weak change moving through eastern NSW.
There is a strong infeed of moisture from the
Indian Ocean through NW Western Australia which will help to increase the shower &
storm activity in the eastern states as well as the west. The West Australian heat trough
will deepen and winds will become more NE increasing temperatures. There is an active
front approaching Perth.
Potential Risks: The area south of
Java around the Christmas & Cocos Islands should be watched over the next day or so
for possible developments.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Coastal showers and drizzle with the possibility of a storm in the
northeast along the ranges.
NSW: Isolated showers and thunderstorms inland associated with the trough
extending south from Queensland. Scattered showers and storms in the northeast as a
remnant front moves through the state.
Queensland: Very isolated coastal showers, with isolated showers and
storms inland from the NW to the southern inland of the state associated with the trough.
NT: Isolated showers and storms in theTop End, mainly in the west, and
possibly in the far south near Alice Springs.
WA: Scattered storms in the Kimberley and Pilbara, extending into the north
Gascoyne and becoming more widespread through the eastern Interior.
SA: Isolated showers along the coast..
Tasmania: Showers, particularly in the west. |
11 |
. |
Discussion: The
high in the southern Tasman is ridging along the entire east coast of Australia into the
tropics. This high has cut off the low near to New Zealand. The ITCZ lies north of
Australia. A weak area of low pressure is evident over northern Western Australia
and is associated with the heat trough in that part of the country. A trough & front
are crossing South Australia and moving in an ESE direction but are inactive over land due
to a lack of moisture. Future
Developments: The high in the southern Tasman will continue ridging into NE
New South Wales & then inland parallel to the Queensland coast rather than along the
coast. The trough through inland Queensland will remain quasi-stationery.
Temperatures in inland New South Wales will rise as the wind shifts towards the NW ahead
of the approaching front. The north of Australia will continue to come under the influence
of a general area of lower pressure rather than any specific system for the next day or
so. The West Australian heat trough will reform off the coast during Monday, increasing
temperatures in southern Western Australia as the winds turn more E-NE.
The front passing through South Australia will
swing the winds around through the SW to the SE as the ridge strengthens in the Bight.
Temperatures will increase in Victoria & Tasmania as the front approaches, but there
is little moisture available and the front is also sliding to the southeast.
Potential Risks: The baric ridge
looks to strengthen through the Bight & then ridge through southern Victoria and
Bass Strait while leaving the trough in inland NSW.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers and storms, mainly closer to the coast or on the eastern
ranges.
NSW: Isolated storms in the west associated with the trough.
Queensland: Isolated showers and storms over the tropics, and also associated
with the trough extending from the NW to the southern inland.
NT: Isolated showers & storms about the northern part of the Top End,
with storms possible in the south associated with the trough.
WA: Isolated showers along the NW coast. Dry elsewhere.
SA: Scattered coastal showers are likely, particularly in the SE.
Tasmania: Scattered showers and isolated storms with the change. |
10 |
Jane ONeill |
An area that does interest me is the part
of the trough at about 30S near the SA/WA border - it's currently showing signs of
vorticity in the middle & upper levels & should also slide SE. There's not a great
deal of support for it atm, but it's a bit interesting. |
10 |
. |
Discussion: The
baric ridge is currently south of Tasmania. The high moving through the Tasman Sea is
ridging along the New South Wales coast and the Queensland coast. A low in the
central Tasman is approaching New Zealand. A broad area of low pressure extends form
the Coral Sea near New Caledonia, westwards through the northern parts of Cape York and
the Top End. There is a focus area of sustained convection NW of New Caledonia. A low pressure system in the southern Bight is moving east
& a small low has formed along the trough near the southern. West Australian coast.
Victoria is languishing under an upper ridge identified by a line of cirrus in the
west of the state which is moving slower than treacle (<10 knots at 300hPa) ..... with
a trough to the west.
Future Developments: The
high in the Tasman will cut off the low moving towards New Zealand while continuing to
ridge along the east coast of Australia. The trough through New South Wales looks to
weaken. A trough in NW Queensland extending towards the southeast of the state may
trigger storms in its vicinity. A moist SE onshore flow along the east coast will see
scattered showers on the coast of New South Wales and as far north as the Queensland
tropics. Scattered showers and storms may become more frequent in the western parts of the
Top End with an infeed of moisture from the equatorial region. There may also be
storms triggered along the Kimberley and Pilbara coast with a similar moisture infeed from
the Indian Ocean.
The West Australian trough, which triggered storms
inland during Saturday evening is continuing to draw moisture from the Indian Ocean even
as it moves further east. Temperatures in South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania will rise
sharply during Sunday as the wind swings around to the north. Moisture levels will rise in
the western parts of South Australia during Sunday
Potential Risks: The area of
convection in the Coral Sea may deepen over the next day or so, but will likely move SE on
the east side of the upper ridge.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Mainly fine. Isolated storms will be possible if a source of moisture
becomes available.
NSW: Possible isolated storms near the trough in the west. Showers
along the coast, clearing from the south.
Queensland: Isolated storms along the trough from the NW to the southern
inland. Scattered showers along the coast. Isolated storms on the north of Cape York
are possible.
NT: Isolated showers and storms in the Top End, with possible storms
developing in the SW.
WA: Showers and storms moving into the east of the state associated with the
trough. Scattered showers in the SW & isolated storms along the Pilbara &
Kimberley coasts.
SA: Scattered showers & the possibility of a storm as the change moves
east.
Tasmania: Mainly fine. |
8 |
. |
Discussion: High in
the Bight ridging SE to south of Tasmania, with a weak ridge through Bass Strait. Trough
moving northeast through New South Wales. TC Des has weakened into a depression, and
another weak depression is east of Cooktown. The ITCZ crosses the top of Cape York
and the Top End. An area of decreasing pressure west of Darwin has become apparent.
The West Australian heat trough lies along the coast. Future Developments: The slow moving high in
the Bight will send a ridge up the New South Wales coast as it moves east & a surface
trough will remain over southern central Queensland and inland NSW, deepening through
Friday & into the weekend, possibly extending as far south as northeast Victoria. The
ridge looks likely to strengthen over the next day or so, effectively keeping the trough
inland over the east of Australia. The tropical lows in the Coral Sea will continue to
move to the southeast and weaken. The trough across northern Australia will continue
to generate shower & thunderstorms and a surface low looks likely to form in the
western Top End / Kimberley area. Storm activity over this region may become more frequent
with the deepening of the area of low pressure to the west of Darwin.
The West Australian heat trough will deepen and
move inland through Friday and into the weekend increasing temperatures in the southern
& central parts of the state, except along the south coast which will remain under the
influence of the SE onshore flow from the Bight for most of Friday before
temperatures begin to climb. An approaching mid-level disturbance may help to
increase storm activity. Temperatures over southeastern Australia will rise through
the weekend as wind swing from SE through NE and more towards northerly with the approach
of the next front later in the weekend.
Potential Risks: The mid-level
disturbance moving through the south of the Northern Territory may trigger storms as it
moves into moister air over Queensland / northern NSW & there is a risk that it may
translate into a disturbance at the surface.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle patches in the south. Mainly fine elsewhere,
except the slight risk of a storm in the far NE.
NSW: Scattered showers and isolated storms along the coast with
scattered storms inland, associated with the trough.
Queensland: Showers along the coast decreasing during Friday but becoming
more frequent during the weekend. Scattered storms in the north as well as in the SE
inland.
NT: Isolated showers & storms, mainly over the Top End. Scattered showers
in the south as the mid level disturbance moves east.
WA: Isolated showers & storms in the west along and inland from the coast
extending to the Gascoyne, & to the Goldfields during Saturday. Possible storms in the
northern Kimberley & the western Pilbara.
SA: Possible showers from the mid-level cloudband in the north of the state
with scattered showers in the south.
Tasmania: Scattered showers, particularly in the south & west, clearing. |
7 |
Nick Sykes |
SE Australia could in for
quite a nice weekend, and lucky for those in Vic a long weekend. GASP has a nice trough
developing through inland NSW into Vic by late Saturday and keeping it in the region for
the duration of the long weekend
Total Totals are expected to be in excess of 50 through a large slab of Vic and NSW. It
will be warm as well, getting into the 30's by Sun/Mon.
AVN is now just going out to Saturday, and it too looks nice, except for one key
ingredient. AVN has cold mid levels (-16C @ 500 in Vic) and upper level (-41 @ 300 in
Vic). Now for the bad, AVN isn't going for a lot of moisture in Vic on Saturday, which
will be an important factor. But as the trough deepens over the SE into Sun/Mon we should
seee more moisture dragged south in the NE flow. |
7 |
Clyve Herbert |
Anticyclones moving
from the west of WA towards eastern Australian longitudes are
still showing a tendency to weaken, although a sign of the progression
of the seasons was the rather prolonged persistence of the baric ridge over northern Victoria last week, the present stalling of the trough
over NSW seems to indicate a probability of the baric ridge pushing
southward towards Tasmania and a marked warming over inland NSW over
the next several days, which will strengthen the prospects
for a persisting trough through that state and extending into
northern Vic. With a bit of luck moisture levels will
progressively improve through the weekend and with cooler mid
and upper levels (unlike yesterday's effort with warm mid levels) some afternoon convective storms about the ranges may result, a situation
so lacking over the past summer. |
7 |
David Jones |
...purusing the highly erratic model charts for the
weekend, I would not be surprised to see some thundery
activity across Victoria on Saturday and (more likely Sunday and
Monday). The approaching Bight high is expected to ridge well south of Tasmania, while a weak mid level trough is maintained over the great
Australian bight through until early next week. By Saturday, we
should see the development of an easterly trough through NSW
and into Victoria, with convergent (and moist) NE flow. The
mix of warm low level temperatures, healthy low and mid-level
moisture, low level convergence (and a touch of upper
divergence) and coolish upper temperatures is reflected in the prognosed instability indices which suggest a rather unstable atmosphere
in SE Aus over the weekend. The prognosed mix of ingredients
is not explosive, but does point to some possible action.
All these ingredients may
then be swept up in a front around Tuesday, which varies in
intensity from a full-blown cold-outbreak with snow to 1000m in NOGAPS, to something approximating a sea breeze in GASP and the EC models. |
7 |
. |
Discussion: The
high ridging through the Bight is weakening and sends a ridge to the south of Tasmania.
The high east of New Zealand sends a trough through northern New South Wales.
TC Des is near New Caledonia at ~21S. The ITCZ passes from TC Des through the top
of Cape York & Arnhem Land. A mid-level disturbance is located over the Indian
Ocean west of Geraldton. Future
Developments: The trough which moved through Victoria during Wednesday is
likely to stall in northeast Victoria and inland New South Wales.The high in the Bight
will build a ridge towards Tasmania. Showers are likely along the Queensland coast in the
moist SE onshore flow. TC Des will continue moving southeast along the low-mid level
ridge to its east and weaken. Scattered showers and storms within the trough across
the top of northern Australia.
The West Australian heat trough will reform during
Thursday west of the coast increasing temperatures east of the trough. A middle
level disturbance will move inland over the SW Land Division during Thursday &
interact with the surface trough. The inland surface trough which can be traced all the
way back to the Indian Ocean to the south of Java, extends to the area of lowering
pressure in NSW and may trigger isolated storms in areas of higher moisture in NSW &
the Pilbara. South Australia should see only scattered showers along the coast,
clearing as the high moves east. Temperatures will begin to rise again.
Potential Risks: A
re-intensification of the monsoon over northern Australia is likely during the next week
or so. There is the chance that a low will develop over southern New South Wales
& if the ridge to the south from the high in the Bight strengthens, this system may be
cut-off & become slow moving over the next few days.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Possible showers and storms in the far northeast under the influence of
the trough. Drizzle along the coast & south of the ranges.
NSW: Isolated showers and storms associated with the inland trough. Scattered
showers along the north coast.
Queensland: Scattered showers & storms in the north of the state, with
coastal showers.
NT: Scattered showers and storms, mainly over the Top End decreasing in the
south.
WA: Isolated showers and storms in the north Kimberley & Gascoyne.
Possible storms in the Pilbara.
SA: Showers along the coast, clearing.
Tasmania: Scattered showers. |
6 |
Clyve Herbert |
Here in central Vic there is still some
limited moisture below 850hpa this morning, the mid layers are on the warm side
although will have improving moisture levels this afternoon, the trough appears to be
showing signs of slowing down over inland areas of Vic with the cooler air sneaking along
the coast first, other than all that , things look ok for some activity later today when
temps start to break the 32c level especially over eastern Vic, if the change is delayed
central Vic may turn it on too. |
6 |
. |
Discussion: The
high in the Tasman is moving steadily towards New Zealand & extending a ridge through
northern New South Wales and along the Queensland coast to the tropics. The ITCZ extends
from the Coral Sea low through the Top End and then NW. A weak wave low has formed
in the Bight. Future Developments:
The ridge through northern New South Wales looks to become broader through Wednesday and
extend more westwards through Queensland due to pressure forcing by the Coral Sea low.
Showers are also likely over the northern NSW coast. SE winds on the Queensland
coast will trigger showers, with some heavy falls. Fine elsewhere. Pressures over
the northern part of Australia are beginning to decrease again. Scattered storm
activity is likely within the vicinity of the ITCZ, more particularly in the east. The
West Australian heat trough will reform off the coast during Wednesday / hursday, with
temperatures in WA rising except along the coastal fringe where a SE onshore flow will be
directed onto the coast by the high moving through the Bight. There may be isolated storms
along the trough through WA especially in the Gascoyne & extending to the Eucla.
The front moving through the Bight looks likely to
shear away from the trough over South Australia, which may result in the surface trough
moving rather more slowly than the front to the south. Tasmania should see rising
temperatures with the chance of a storm as the front passes across the state. The
shallow trough in the west of Victoria, which has been slow moving, will move eastwards,
more quickly in the south. The front looks to move through southern Victoria, possibly
reaching Melbourne during the afternoon.
Potential Risks: The Coral Sea low
is still a possibility to become a TC but is almost too far south for this to be very
likely as it passes over cooler waters. There is a possibility that the low pressure in
the Bight may become cutoff and move eastwards to pass close to Victoria.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Possible showers & isolated storms particularly with the change &
more likely on & south of the ranges. Storms are also possible in the southwest
of the state.
NSW: Showers along the northern coast. Possible isolated storms in the
southwest and south with the trough.
Queensland: Tropical storm activity, particularly over Cape York.
Showers along the coast, with some heavy falls.
NT: Isolated storms over the Top End, particularly in the far north.
Storms also likely to the NE of the Tennant Creek area.
WA: Isolated storms along the trough through WA with isolated storms along the
Kimberley coast.
SA: Scattered showers, particularly along the coast in the wake of the front.
Tasmania: Scattered showers with the chance of a storm. |
5 |
Clyve Herbert |
There is some shallow moisture across
southern Vic mostly below 850hpa some of which will dry out later today, the mid levels
are a little warm, but conditions are rather cold at 300hpa -37 to -40c. There is some dry
air embedded in the mid layers. With surface convection today looks like the best prospect
of any activity is along the ranges east of Ballarat, an upper ridge appears to be edging
in from the west ahead of tomorrows trough which will spread dryer and warmer air into the
upper layers and weakening the lapse rates even further. Although I never take my eye off
an approaching trough! so keep a lookout. The Coral Sea system is showing better outflow along the western side, however, surface convergence is
irregular favouring a band to the east and another near to
the centre, this seems at the moment to be disrupting the
concentration of a singular convergent flow at the lower levels, also the convection to the east of the centre has some subsidence on its
western edge, the connection to the mid lat trough appears to
be severing. The next six hours will show what potential this
system has. |
5 |
. |
Discussion: A high
is moving across the Tasman, strengthening as it moves east. A trough extends along
the western side of the ranges through New South Wales and into northeast Victoria.
The Coral Sea low continues to lie close to the coast. The ITCZ has weakened and lies
through Cape York & Arnhem Land. The heat trough in Western Australia is located
inland from the coast. A weak front is crossing SW WA, and is followed by another stronger
front to the SW. An upper level disturbance is evident in the Indian Ocean at ~25S. Future Developments: The highs
advancing east from the Indian Ocean are helping to keep the fronts to the south of the
continent. The high in the Tasman Sea will extend a ridge through northern NSW & SE
Queensland, with this ridge being kept inland over Queensland by the Coral Sea low, which
in turn will keep the inland trough to its west edging slowly westward.
Isolated storms are possible east of the trough
from Victoria to northern Queensland, more likely along the ranges & closer to the
coast in moister air. Strengthening SE winds along the Queensland coast & a rising
swell are the result of a steep E-W pressure gradient between the ridge & the Coral
Sea low. Scattered storm activity will be evident in the Top End & tropical
Queensland, particularly along the coastline near to the trough through the area.
The trough in Western Australia is moving east with conditions to the west cooler &
occasionally showery. Conditions east of the trough remain hot. South
Australia is positioned between the WA trough & the inland trough through the eastern
states & will remain fine through Tuesday, with moisture levels beginning to increase
to the west. The front approaching Tasmania is expected to pass through during
Wednesday with temperatures beginning to climb during Tuesday.
Temperatures in Victoria will increase as the wind
swings around through the NE - NW during Tuesday. There is a significant amount of
moisture being advected southwards from NSW & this may help to destabilise conditions,
particularly in the NE & along the ranges.
Potential Risks: Possible storms
along the ranges in Victoria, mainly in the northeast if the trough extends far enough
southwards through Tuesday. A watch is maintained over the Coral Sea low.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Possible showers & isolated storms along the ranges in the NE as the
trough through NSW extends south.
NSW: Possible storms east of the trough, particularly along the ranges.
Scattered showers along the coast in the north.
Queensland: Isolated showers & storms in the Tropics & east of the
trough, with showers along the coast.
NT: Isolated showers & storms particularly along the coast.
WA: Isolated storms in the tropics, mainly the west Kimberley. Scattered
showers & storms associated with the trough through the Gascoyne & Goldfields
regions. Drizzle among the southern coast behind the weak front.
SA: Fine while the state remains between a trough to the west & a trough
to the east.
Tasmania: Fine during Tuesday with just the possibility of some fog patches. |
4 |
. |
Discussion: A high
in the eastern Bight extends a ridge through Bass Strait and northwards along the New
South Wales coast. A trough extends southward along the western side of the Great Divide
in NSW. The ITCZ crosses the northern part of Cape York & the Top End. The West
Australian heat trough has reformed now that the monsoon low has almost totally
decayed. A front is approaching SW Western Australia and is followed by a
significant area of cold air. Future
Developments: The high will continue to move east strengthening the ridge
along the east coast & driving the inland trough further west in NSW. Temperatures
will remain mild to warm along the coast, increasing through the west of the state. The
low in the Coral Sea will continue moving SW towards the Queensland coast. The interaction
between the low approaching from the Coral Sea & the strengthening ridge along the
east coast should see strengthening SE winds & increasing shower activity along the
Queensland coast over the early part of the week while the interior of the state remains
mainly fine and dry.
An infeed of tropical moisture (from the Northern
Hemisphere courtesy of Typhoon Mitag) onto the far NW of the continent may help trigger
showers & storms. The heat trough in the west will move eastwards from the coast &
looks likely to interact with the front during Monday in Western Australia. A low
may form in the western Bight during Monday.
Potential Risks: Some beach
erosion is possible along the Queensland coast due to heavy swells resulting from the
interaction between the Coral Sea disturbance and the high moving into the Tasman.
Keep watching the Coral Sea - TC development is still a possibility.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Morning drizzle in the south. Fine in the north.
NSW: Isolated showers along the coast are possible with the chance of
isolated storms east of the trough, particularly in the north.
Queensland: Coastal showers becoming more frequent with isolated storms across
Cape York.
NT: Scattered storm activity over the far northern parts of the Top End.
WA: Isolated showers & storms, particularly in the coastal northern
regions. Isolated showers & storms associated with the trough & front in the
south, extending east.
SA: Possible coastal drizzle in an onshore southeasterly flow.
Tasmania: Drizzle in the southwest, clearing. |
3 |
. |
Discussion: At the
moment an 'autumnal' synoptic pattern seems to be apparent, but this is temporary. The
high is starting to move towards the eastern Bight region during Sunday, and extends a
ridge into the Tasman Sea through Victoria. A trough extends from Queensland into New
South Wales along the western slopes to central areas. The ITCZ has continued to move
equatorwards to lie across northern Cape York & the Top End. The moisture plume
from Western Australia's low has moved northwards, but still crosses the country & can
be traced across the North Island of New Zealand and into a deep low to the southeast of
the South Island. A mid level disturbance lies just west of Perth. Future Developments: The trough in New
South Wales may trigger storms especially to its east. Fine in the west of the state with
conditions warmer west of the trough. A cross equatorial upper flow to the Top End
during the next 48 hours may increase the potential for storm activity in that region.
The mid level disturbance west of Perth should move onshore triggering isolated
showers & storms over southern & western areas. This system currently looks
like it may weaken while it moves east over the next 48 hours, and the activity should
move E-SE with the system. There are however signs of increasing inflow from the tropics
which may help maintain, if not increase the strength of this disturbance.
As the high moves east through the Bight,
temperatures in South Australia, Victoria & Tasmania should slowly start to rise early
in the week, after a few coastal showers in the SW - SE flow during Sunday.
Pressures in the southeast are expected to remain fairly steady as the high weakens as it
moves east, before reaching the Tasman Sea & strengthening early in the week &
strengthening a ridge long the Queensland coast.
Potential Risks: The area of
persistent convection southwest of the Solomon Islands is worth watching. Outflow
has become better organised. This area has been active for the past 2 weeks &
there is still the potential for a tropical disturbance to develop.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers & drizzle continuing south of the ranges. Fine in the
north.
NSW: Showers & isolated storms along the trough in the northern part of
the state.
Queensland: Showers in the SE from the ex-monsoon cloudband. Showers
& isolated storms in the tropics and along the central & northern east coast near
the trough.
NT: Isolated showers & storms over the Top End.
WA: Isolated showers & storms in the SW Land Division, extending east.
Scattered storms in the Kimberley & central eastern areas.
SA: Isolated showers & drizzle in the south, fine in the north.
Tasmania: Scattered showers in the south & west, clearing from most areas. |
2 |
. |
Discussion: High in the
Bight beginning to weaken as it moves east, continues to ridge through Victoria &
across southern New South Wales. Surface trough extends from the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria to the southeast corner of Queensland triggering storms along its length,
particularly in the northern areas. The area of low pressure in the eastern
Coral Sea remains in evidence in the same location as for the past fortnight. The ITCZ
lies just inland from the coast and extends from Cape York, through the Top End & to
the Kimberley / Pilbara region of Western Australia. The West Australian heat trough is
not so much in evidence off the coast presently. Much of the Coral Sea remains clear
of cloud to the southwest of the tropical low near Vanuatu. Future Developments: A weak high may form in the
Tasman off the New South Wales coast during Saturday. A mid level disturbance is evident
west of Perth with a front approaching from the southwest. This disturbance will
likely weaken as it moves east during the weekend. The large moisture plume across
Australia will continue shifting slowly equatorwards as the airstream continues to carry
moisture across the Tasman Sea to New Zealand in response to a deepening low in the far
south Tasman. This moisture plume isn't finished yet!! The surface trough
interacting with the moisture plume will trigger showers & scattered storms across
much of the state & remain slow moving through the weekend. The high in the
Bight will direct a SE - SW flow over the southeast of the continent during the weekend.
Potential Risks: periods of heavy
rain over the North Island of New Zealand.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers & drizzle south of the ranges especially on the
weekend mornings. Fine in the north.
NSW: Isolated showers along the coast in a moist onshore airstream
particularly later in the day. Possible isolated storms in the far northeast.
Fine elsewhere.
Queensland: Showers and isolated storms over most areas, becoming more
frequent over the southern & central east coast & hinterland.
NT: Isolated showers & storms over the Top End. Mostly fine in the
south.
WA: Showers & possible thunderstorms in the northern & central
parts of the SW Land Division during Saturday under the influence of the mid level
disturbance. Scattered showers & isolated storms in the Pilbara & Kimberley
becoming less frequent in the south of the area.
SA: Isolated showers along the coast,
clearing. Mainly fine elsewhere.
Tasmania: Showers in the west & south in a
SW airstream. |
1 |
. |
Discussion: Slow moving
high in the western Bight ridging through southeastern Australia. Trough extending
southeast through Queensland. Area of low pressure (ex monsoon low) located in the Pilbara
with an extensive moisture plume extending east & southeast across the continent which
is producing scattered light showers. An area of low pressure continues to remain
near to Suva. WA heat trough lies just off the coast. One of a series of fronts passes
across Tasmania and through Bass Strait. A general SW flow across Victoria and
Tasmania has moderated temperatures in coastal areas. Future Developments: The high in the western Bight
will continue to move slowly east, with the ridging over SE Australia becoming more
general and stronger with the lows to the south of Tasmania keeping the ridge
further north over northern Victoria and southern New South Wales. The Queensland trough
will move east towards the coast while the front in the Tasman Sea moves towards New
Zealand. The ITCZ is going through a slow weakening at present and remains close to the
coastline although still inland. A NE onshore flow along the tropical Queensland
coast may trigger showers. A SE-SW flow over South Australia will tend more SE-E
over Western Australia increasing temperatures to the west. A moist onshore SE flow
following the front moving through the far northeast during Friday may produce showers
along the NSW coast but with the western & southern inland becoming mostly fine under
the influence of the ridge of high pressure. Moisture will continue drifting east
from the Pilbara for the next few days & will may trigger isolated showers from one
side of the continent to the other.
Potential Risks: The high in the
Bight.
Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers south of the ranges, clearing during Friday. Fine
in the north.
NSW: Possible coastal showers in a SE onshore flow. Isolated storms
near the trough in the far NE corner.
Queensland: Widespread scattered showers over much of the state with isolated
thunderstorms east of the trough near the coast.
NT: Seasonal storm activity in the Top End. Clearing ion the south.
WA: Scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming less frequent during
Friday retreating to the north & northwest. Drizzle along the SE coast clearing.
SA: Possible light showers along the coast with
showers in the north clearing through Friday.
Tasmania: Showers, clearing in the NE. |
. |
. |
February Forecast Outlook,
Discussion & Report page |
. |
. |
Victorian Weather Glass |