November 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Victoria

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December 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page

Current Victorian and Australian Conditions

Overview: With the summer synoptic pattern now established across Australia, the trough moving into Victoria during Sunday and Monday will become quasi-stationary.  A ridge of high pressure will move from south of Western Australia into the Bight Monday and Tuesday.  This ridge and associated high pressure will move to Bass Strait with a centre of high pressure moving to south of Victoria on Friday, with a ridge strengthening up the east coast Friday to Sunday. The quasi-stationary trough over Victoria on  Monday will contract into New South Wales and western Queensland later Tuesday and remain through to the weekend. The west coast heat trough over Western Australia will persist through this week, possibly moving offshore of the SW Land Division midweek.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Patchy high based showers developing later Sunday in the west of the state, with the chance of storms.  The stalling of this trough during Monday and Tuesday will see a gradual increase in moisture allowing for the chance of more general showers and local storms Monday and Tuesday. There is the chance of isolated heavy falls, particularly on the ranges.  Showers are likely to contract to the ranges and southern Victoria between Tuesday and early Thursday with mainly dry conditions developing after Thursday.  The return of a trough from inland NSW later Friday or Saturday may see isolated storms develop across the northeastern high country.
NSW:  Sunday will see local showers on the coast, while the rest of the week will see increasing instability over the interior associated with the trough, mainly east of a line from Bourke to Albury.  Although there may be patchy showers and storms west of this line (mainly on Tuesday), activity should generally remain to the east of this area through much of the week.  Local heavy falls possible near to the ranges.
Queensland: Showers and storms over the central coast and nearby inland will dissipate during Sunday and Monday, with isolated showers lingering on the coast.  An approaching trough during the middle of the week will bring increasing instability through western and central parts with increasing storm activity, and gradually move east during Friday and Saturday to affect most parts of Queensland, with showers more isolated on the coast. Possible heavy falls later part of the week in central and southeastern inland.
NT: Isolated high based showers or storms in the southern inland Tuesday and Wednesday, and seasonal thunderstorms over the Top End, mainly later in the week.
WA:  A persistent heat trough will generate isolated showers and storms from the Pilbara to the Goldfields. Showers and storms over the north Kimberley becoming more general mid week and through to Saturday.   Possible heavy falls in the northern Kimberley.
SA:  Patchy high based showers and storms Sunday contracting east and clearing.  Mostly dry during the remainder of week, except for the possibility of high based showers and storms in the northeast and northwest.
Tasmania:  The trough and front moving across the state on Sunday will bring patchy rain followed by a period of showers, mainly in the west and south as well as over the high er parts until Wednesday / Thursday.  Becoming dry towards the weekend.

Overview: An amplifying upper trough is crossing Western Australia with an associated surface low pressure embedded within which is interacting with the west coast trough moving inland through Friday. The high in the Bight has moved through Bass Strait during Friday and is directing south-easterly winds across the southeast of the country. A trough over northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland has become quasi-stationery during the past day or three and moist inflow from the Tasman Sea has helped trigger widespread showers (some heavy) and storms (some severe) from the Hunter to Fraser Island.

Discussion: As the high continues to move east, a broader onshore flow from the Tasman will increase available moisture in the lower levels over eastern Australia during the weekend, particularly later Saturday and during Sunday in teh southeast. The trough moving through Western Australia during Friday will cross much of South Australia during Saturday, with Sunday seeing it moving through Victoria.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Mainly fine and becoming warmer as winds tend more northeasterly through Saturday.
NSW:  Scattered showers over the northern coast with isolated storms, more frequent over the northern inland near to the trough.
Queensland: Showers and  storms over much of the southeaster corner of the state during Friday night and Saturday, extending slowly northeast and extending to periods of rain at times. Onshore moisture feed onto the coast may lead to locally heavy falls.  Isolated showers along the northeastern tropical coast, with scattered showers and storms over the southern and central inland areas.
NT: Scattered showers and isolated storms mainly in the west of the Territory particularly in the northwest of the Top End.
WA: Isolated storms along the west coast trough moving east with the trough and extending from the Interior through the Goldfields.  Showers and isolated storms in much of the northern part of the state, particularly in the Kimberley and northern Interior.
SA:  Becoming warmer across the state with increasing cloud in the west as a trough moves thought he west of the state during Saturday.  Isolated showers and high based storms are likely with the trough.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers mainly over the west and south, with fine conditions in the north and east.

Overview: A typical summer type synoptic setup is becoming established with the interior of the continent becoming seasonally very warm.  This is forcing the high pressure belt to the south of the continent with ridging along the southern coastline, and northwards along the east coast.  Summer troughs have commenced over the continent in the west and east of the country. 

Discussion: A trough will move from South Australia to the eastern states during Tuesday and Wednesday.  A ridge will follow from south of Western Australia moving into the Bight and then into western Bass Strait.  A broad area of very warm to hot air east of this trough will bring very high temperatures to inland areas of eastern Australia over the next several days. The passage of the trough through southern Australia will be accompanied by mainly high cloud, with a risk of storms over eastern South Australia, Victoria and western New South Wales from early Tuesday into Wednesday. The southern portion of this trough will move into the southern Tasman, with the northern portion becoming slow moving over northern New South Wales and southern Queensland towards the middle of the week   A ridge moving in to the head of the Bight will develop a new high pressure cell west of Kangaroo Island later Tuesday.  This high pressure cell will move through Bass Strait and send a ridge up the east coast by Thursday.   Another trough will approach the southeast from Western Australia later this week.  

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A trough moving through the state Tuesday and Wednesday will produce bands of midlevel & high cloud, with patchy rain and possible storms, mainly on and south of the ranges. With limited moisture available at lower levels, apart from the chance of an isolated heavy fall with storms, the outlook for good rain at the moment is poor.
NSW:  A trough later Tuesday and Wednesday moving into the west will bring local high based storms with some patchy light rain.  As this trough moves east during Wednesday, it will slow, and with more moisture available east of a line from Narrabri to Sydney, locally heavy falls with storms may occur east of this line.
Queensland: A weakening trough on Monday will dissipate during Tuesday as another trough moves into the southwest corner and edges slowly east. No significant falls are expected in the southwest at this stage due to the dry atmosphere, although from mid week the trough will interact with higher moisture levels in the central and southeast of the state, producing local heavy storms. Most storms will likely occur east of a line from Charleville and Goondiwindi, especially Wednesday to Friday.
NT: Isolated showers and storms in the far south Tuesday to Thursday with no significant falls. Convective showers and storms will become more frequent after Wednesday over the Top End.  There is the chance of local heavy falls in the northwest of the Top End.
WA: Tuesday to Thursday will see increasing instability over the Kimberley with scattered showers and storms likely.  A few high based showers and storms developing after Wednesday from the Pilbara to Kalgoorlie.
SA: Scattered high based storms associated with the passage of the trough Monday night and Tuesday, clearing the state later Tuesday with no significant falls. A few showers and storms developing after Wednesday in the far west, moving slowly east.
Tasmania:  A front and trough moving through the state during Tuesday will bring patchy rain and isolated storms, with showers to follow, mainly in the west. Light showers and drizzle will persist in the west and south till Wednesday / Thursday.

Overview: The high in the Bight is located just west of Tasmania and has strengthened during Sunday. A trough of low pressure lies through southern Queensland and northeast New South Wales, between this high, which influences the southeast of the country, and a ridge of high pressure along the Queensland coast. The west coast trough originates in the Kimberley and has deepened southwards to the southern coast and a front is approaching the southwest corner of the continent.

Discussion: The high to the west of Tasmania will drift northeast into the Tasman and combine with the ridge already located there. The trough lying through southern Queensland and northeastern New south Wales will remain quasi-stationary through Monday and likely trigger further showers and storms as moisture is drawn into the area from the northeast. The west coast trough will drift east into South Australia and the approaching high will ridge along the southern coast of Western Australia with a heat low forming in the Pilbara as the cooler moist air migrates slowly out of the area.

Areas to watch:  The weak area of upper vorticity is still apparent and drifting slowly east.  Interesting if it interacts with the surface trough over the northeast of New South Wales.....

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A fine warm day throughout.
NSW: Scattered showers and storms, mainly in the northeast, but possibly extending further inland during Monday. Mainly fine elsewhere.
Queensland: Isolated showers along the northeast tropical coast.  Scattered showers and storms in the south and southeastern corner.
NT: Isolated storms mainly in the northwest and far southern parts of the Territory.
WA: Showers and isolated storms continuing through the Interior and Goldfields, drifting east. Scattered showers as a front passes along the southern coast.
SA: Scattered showers and isolated storms developing in the west and becoming more widespread, but falls are likely to be only light.
Tasmania:  Mainly fine throughout.

Overview: The high in the Tasman directs a weak ridge along the Queensland coast. The high in the Bight near to 35�S lies to the north of a broad westerly belt with embedded front affecting Tasmania. The heat trough in Western Australia deepened through Saturday and extends to the southwest corner just inland from the coast, with a broad area of moist air to its east with scattered showers and storms across much of inland Western Australia, and the inland of the Northern Territory and South Australia. The trough has stalled over New South Wales, but remained largely inactive through Saturday.

Discussion: The high in the Bight will drift southeast and strengthen through Sunday, with a developing ridge to the south ending the westerly regime that has been affecting Tasmania for the past few days. A ridge of high pressure will be maintained along the Queensland coast. The Western Australian trough will continue to deepen and drift only very slowly east. A broad ridge of high pressure is ridging in to our latitudes from the Indian Ocean. The pressure gradient across continental Australia will remain slack.

Areas to watch: an area of   vorticity within an upper trough is located over South Australia and should be watched for the next 24 hours or so.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers along the coast, mainly in the east, clearing Sunday.  Mainly fine throughout.
NSW: A weak front will pass long the coast during Sunday, while the trough will remain slow moving over the northeast, but will little if any precipitation likely. Warm to hot conditions.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the northeast tropical coast. The chance of a shower or storm in the southwest associated with the trough running through New South Wales (there is more moisture moving into this area from the west).  Fine elsewhere.
NT: Isolated showers or storms, mainly in the west and south.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms east of the trough axis, with the whole system drifting only slowly east.  Risk of isolated showers briefly in the southwest with the passage of a front through the Bight.
SA:  Cloud increasing through the state, mainly inland.  Scattered showers and isolated storms are likely in the far west and far northeast. Mainly fine along the coast.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west and south, and the strong southwesterly flow should decrease through Sunday as the high approaches. Mainly fine in the east and north.

Overview: A trough through New South Wales (and broadly into Victoria) lies between the high in the Tasman Sea and a ridge of high pressure extending across the Bight and into the southeast of the continent. The north of the continent remains under the influence of a broad trough with an upper low over Western Australia and weak surface trough triggering scattered showers and storms over the Interior and Goldfields. Moisture over the continent is concentrated over inland Western Australia. Tasmania is influenced by a broad zonal westerly flow with the upper jet reaching 130knots during the afternoon.

Discussion: Tasmania will remain influenced by the zonal westerly flow during Saturday with the further passage of a series of fronts and a strong west - southwesterly flow. The trough lying through New South Wales and Queensland will remain and slow moving and largely inactive, especially in the south, but scattered showers and storms will be triggered further north. The high in the Tasman will ridge broadly further west into Queensland than during Friday. The trough extending inland of the west coast will deepen southwards and likely bisect the high ridging along the southern coast during Saturday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle along the coast Friday night, clearing to a fine day throughout, warmer in the north.
NSW: The trough will move slowly across the northeast of the state, but will remain largely inactive.  Dry.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the northeast tropical coast. Isolated showers an storms in the southern and western areas associated with the trough.
NT: Scattered showers and isolated storms over the northwest and north of the Top End with scattered showers and storms in the west and southwest in moister conditions.
WA:  Showers and storms through the Kimberley and much of the inland of the state with the exception of the southwest and northwest Gascoyne. This activity will move only slowly east.
SA:  Isolated storms in the far northeast.  Cloud increasing in the west with the approach of the trough but remaining mainly dry.  Drizzle patches overnight in the southeast.
Tasmania:  Widespread showers, mainly in the west and south.  Strong winds continuing over the south in particular as a series of deep lows passes close by.

Overview: The baric ridge lies between 30 and 35�S, bisected through central Australia by a trough extending from the Kimberley to the western districts of Victoria, with storms triggered in the moister conditions over the West Australian Interior. The high in the Tasman Sea extends a weak ridge along the Queensland coast with a weak trough to its inland, while a series of fronts embedded in the westerly flow to the south of the baric ridge is approaching Tasmania. The ITCZ makes its first appearance for the season near the Solomon Islands.

Discussion: The high in the Tasman will remain slow moving while the trough moves through Victoria and western and central New South Wales during Thursday night and Friday. The high over the Indian Ocean is ridging in along the southern coast of Western Australia, and the heat trough is deepening inland of the west coast. A series of fronts will affect Tasmanian weather during Friday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A largely inactive trough will move through the state, with isolated drizzle in the south, but remaining mainly fine and warm, particularly north of the ranges.
NSW: The trough may extend south into northern New South Wales, but will remain largely inactive, although the trough crossing the southern and central parts of the state may trigger a few showers with isolated storms during Friday.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the northeast coast.  Scattered showers and isolated storm in the south.
NT: Isolated showers and storms over the northwest of the Top End and in the west of the Territory near to the trough.
WA:  Isolated showers and storms over much of the inland parts of the state as moisture levels continue to increase and the trough deepens.
SA:  A mild wind change extending through the state.  Isolated showers and storms in the west near the trough and are also possible in the northeast of the state.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers, mainly in the south and west, extending further east with the passage of weak fronts through Friday.

Overview: The high (1023hPa) edges eastwards toward the Tasman Sea through southern Victoria and Bass Strait and extends a ridge to the south. An inactive trough lies inland of the east coast, while troughs in northern Australia extend both through inland Queensland to the southeast and through inland Western Australia. These two troughs are triggering showers and scattered storms. A front is approaching the southwest corner during the latter part of Wednesday.

Discussion: The baric ridge, which is holding its position near to 30�S over the oceans to the east and west of the continent, is split over the land by the trough currently moving east from Western Australia and the front passing through the western Bight. To the south of the baric ridge, a more mobile westerly pattern is emerging, with fronts likely to move quickly through the Bight and particularly affecting Tasmania's weather for the next day or two. The trough and front will move through South Australia and into the southeast during Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure building in along the southern coast of Western Australia to its west. Moisture buildup over the northwest and tropics will continue with an infeed of tropical moisture from near Indonesia moving onto the continent.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Northwesterly winds with increasing temperatures through Thursday. Becoming cloudy from the west later in the day with the chance of showers and isolated storms as the trough moves into the state.
NSW: Mainly fine throughout and becoming warmer.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the central and northeast tropical coasts with isolated showers and storms within the trough from the northwest of the state to the east.
NT: Moisture building over the Top End will help trigger further showers with the chance of a storm during Thursday. Showers and isolated storms associated with the eastward moving trough in the south.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms continuing over the Kimberley and the eastern part of the Interior extending to the Eucla as the trough continues to moves east.   The front crossing the southwest on Wednesday night may produce drizzle patches along the south coast.
SA:  Increasing cloud in the west with scattered showers and storms associated with the trough moving through from Western Australia. Increasing temperatures through the west of the state, becoming more general. A southwesterly wind change followed by scattered showers, mainly in the south.
Tasmania:  Northwesterly winds shifting westerly through the day, with showers, widespread in the west of the state.

Overview: The high near Adelaide has begun to weaken as it has moved east through Tuesday, with the west coast trough deepening southward and bisecting the baric ridge. A trough lying through inland Queensland is triggering isolated showers and storms. Northern Australia remains under the influence of generally lower pressures with atmospheric moisture levels steadily increasing, particularly over the Territory and Kimberley.  An active front ahead of a broad upper trough is approaching southwest Western Australia. Cloud in the Bight marks the location of a baroclinic zone ahead of the trough.

Discussion: Moisture over the Kimberley and Interior of Western Australia will continue to build, with isolated showers and storms during Tuesday night and Wednesday. The west coast trough will move east during the next 24 hours with convective activity becoming more frequent closer to the trough axis. The high moving across the southeast of the continent will be squeezed between the westerly flow to the south, which will extend more northwards during Wednesday, and the trough to the north, bringing briefly cooler nights before it moves into the Tasman Sea.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A cool night inland.  Isolated drizzle patches in the south.   A fine day.
NSW: Showers possible in the northeast of the state as a weak trough moves through.   Mainly dry elsewhere. Cool night inland in the south.
Queensland: The trough moving along the east coast may stall over the southeast and central coast during Wednesday before moving out into the Coral Sea. Isolated showers and storms over the northwest inland extending to the coast near to the trough..
NT: Scattered showers and storms mainly over the northwest and Top End, with the chance of showers along the western border in the south as the trough approaches.
WA:  Showers and storms over the Kimberley and northern Interior during Tuesday night and Wednesday. Isolated showers along the south coast with the passage of a front to the south.
SA:  A cool to cold night ahead of winds turning north-northwesterly during the day ahead of the approaching trough moving into the west of the state. 
Tasmania:  Showers tonight clearing mainly throughout except for the southwest corner.

Overview: A slow moving high is located in the Bight and is moving only slowly east. The trough remains through southern Queensland and extends to the northwest of the continent and is triggering showers and storms along much of its length, particularly in the eastern parts of Queensland. A deep low and trough is passing south of Tasmania with a cold southwesterly flow and snowfalls over the central ranges of the island. Light snowfalls were recorded over the alpine areas of Victoria with sleet falling occasionally to lower levels during the morning as the cold pool moved across the southeast..

Discussion: The high in the Bight will move slowly across the southeast of the continent towards the Tasman Sea and weaken during the next day or so before restrengthening off the coast. The southwesterly flow set up between the lows to the south and the high moving east from the Bight will continue to bring showery conditions to western Tasmania.  The west  coast trough will deepen and move east during Tuesday while a front will pass along the southern coast of Western Australia. Moisture will continue to build over the northern tropics, particularly in the northwest, with continuing scattered storms.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers in the south, clearing during Tuesday to a fine and mild day throughout the state.
NSW: Scattered showers with the chance of storms in the northeast.  Becoming fine elsewhere.
Queensland: Showers and storms associated with the trough, moving northeast through the southern and central parts of the state during Monday night and Tuesday.   Isolated showers over Cape York and scattered storms in the southwest Gulf Country.
NT: Scattered showers and storms, mainly in the northwest but also likely near to the trough and extending further south.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms over the Kimberley extending further south as the trough deepens during Tuesday.
SA:  Isolated showers over the southeast Monday night will clear with fine conditions throughout. Nights inland becoming colder.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west and south.  Clearing elsewhere.

Overview: The trough has moved only slowly through New South Wales and southern Queensland during Sunday and has intensified somewhat, triggering storms in both of these states as well as northeastern South Australia. The high in the Tasman Sea remains quasi-stationary and ridges along the Queensland coast. The high in the Bight has also slowed its eastward movement and has strengthened after budding off from the ridge to the west during the day.   A ridge is building in from this high across the southeast of the continent. Much of northern Australia remains under a trough and the west coast trough is slowly deepening inland of the coast. A deep low is located to the southwest of the continent.

Discussion: The high will remain slow moving across the Bight during Monday, while the west coast trough will continue to deepen. An onshore flow from the southwest will affect Victoria and Tasmania with scattered showers along the coast continuing. Showers are also likely during Monday from the north coast of New South Wales extending north to the central Queensland coast associated with the trough, which will remain slow moving. The trough extending from the Kimberley to the eastern seaboard will trigger scattered storms along much of its length.

Areas to watch: the mid level cold pool SW of Mt Gambier.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Mainly fine north of the ranges.  Drizzle patches or isolated showers with the chance of a storm in the south, particularly the southwest on Sunday night as a trough moves through the area. Chance of snow showers over the ranges.
NSW: Scattered showers and storms, mainly over the north coast and Northern Tablelands.  Mainly dry elsewhere with milder conditions in the south.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms extending from the southern inland towards the central coast and adjacent ranges along the trough through Sunday night and Monday.   Isolated showers over the northeast tropical coast and south of the Gulf, the latter associated with the trough..
NT: Scattered showers and storms, mainly in the northwest near to the trough axis, occasionally extending southeast as atmospheric moisture increases over the area.
WA:  Showers along the southern coast with the passage of a front during Monday, with scattered storms over the Kimberley and northern Interior..
SA:  Mainly fine through with the exception of isolated light showers over the southeast corner, contracting east into Victoria and isolated storms in the far northeast clearing.
Tasmania:  Showers tending to rain in the west and south, with light flurries over higher parts developing.  A cool day with southwesterly winds.

Overview: The high in the Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the Queensland coast, while a satellite low lies to the west of Tasmania with a weak front approaching the southeastern corner of the continent. The trough that passed through Victoria with and produced widespread storms during Saturday afternoon and evening is moving through New South Wales during Sunday while  its northwestern extent remains anchored in the Kimberley region. A high ridges in from the Indian Ocean along the southern coast of Western Australia.

Discussion: The trough over the northwest will remain quasi-stationary during Sunday through the Kimberley and the Territory, while its eastern extent will move through the rest of New South Wales and into southern and central Queensland. The ridge along the southern West Australian coast will bud off, strengthen and locate in the Bight for the remainder of Sunday. The front associated with the satellite low will cross the southeastern states, triggering further showers, but little in the way of convective activity.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers on and south of the ranges.  Mainly fine in the north. Winds shifting southwest to southerly.
NSW:  Isolated showers and storms with the passage of the trough, moreso in the northeast of the state. Winds tending west-southwesterly west of the trough with conditions remaining mainly dry.
Queensland: Isolated showers over Cape York.  Showers and scattered storms developing in the south during Sunday.
NT: Isolated showers and storms over much of the Territory (mainly near to the trough), becoming less frequent in the south.
WA:  Mainly fine apart from drizzle patches along the south coast clearing through Sunday and isolated storms in the Kimberley.
SA:  Isolated coastal showers in a moist onshore flow, becoming mainly fine later.  Isolated storms in the northeast near to the trough.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers, mainly in the west and south.

Overview: A ridge of high pressure lies against the southeast of the continent, while the rest of the country remains under the influence of various troughs - through northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland to the northwest, the complex trough and frontal system moving into the the west of South Australia, and the broad trough over the Territory. Another low is in the southwest Bight while a high in the Indian Ocean is ridging in along and just south of the south coast of Western Australia. Widespread storm activity through central Australia during Thursday night and redeveloping later Friday with storms also in southeast Queensland.

Discussion: The high against the east coast will strengthen during Saturday as it moves slowly away from the coast and into the Tasman Sea. The positioning of this high will slow the progress of the (currently) amplifying upper and surface troughs and frontal system through the eastern states. The high will continue to ridge in along the southern continental coastline in the west. The trough over the northwest of the continent will remain to its north. Showers and storms associated with this system will move east during Saturday, with northerly winds and increasing temperatures ahead of the system.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Temperatures increasing in central and eastern Victoria through Saturday ahead of the approaching trough.  Scattered showers and isolated storms are likely with the change, extending from the west early morning and reaching the east of the state late in the day / early Sunday.  Winds tending milder southwesterly behind the change.
NSW:  Warmer northerly winds ahead of the trough moving into the south of the state  from the west later Saturday. Chance of a shower or storm in the southwest.
Queensland: Isolated showers over the northeast tropical coast. Scattered showers and isolated storms over the southeast and southern inland areas.
NT: Scattered showers and storms, mainly in the northwest.
WA:  Isolated afternoon showers and storms over the Kimberley. Showers and storms associated with the trough moving through the Eucla and parts of the Interior will continue tonight, clearing as the trough moves out of the state on Saturday.  Showers along the southwest coast.
SA:  Showers and storms associated with the trough and front moving through the state Friday night and into Saturday, with isolated showers remaining in the south in the southwesterly flow behind the change.
Tasmania:  Temperatures increasing as the wind turns more northeasterly during Saturday.  Showers developing in the north and west later.

Overview: A significant increase in available moisture over much of the continent during Thursday, and with a trough extending from northeastern New South Wales to the northwest, along with a trough moving through eastern Western Australia has triggered significant storms across large areas of inland and northern Australia during Thursday night. The trough moving through eastern Australia has stalled, while a high in the Bight is ridging across the southeast of the continent. A surface front associated with a deepening upper trough is approaching the southwest of the continent.

Discussion: The trough over eastern Australia extending to the Territory will likely remain very slow moving over the next day or so, with an active front moving through the Bight to interact with the trough over central Australia and significant available moisture, triggering widespread storms, especially within the strongly baroclinic area ahead of the front south of 30�S.   Some local falls may be heavy.

The high in the Bight will move quickly towards the Tasman Sea, with the trough and front following and moving through much of South Australia during Friday and approaching the southeast of the country during Saturday. The low moving into and through the Bight is likely to strengthen before moving southeast later Friday. Strengthening northwesterly winds and increasing temperatures ahead of the trough over the southeast.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A cool night inland.  Fine throughout Friday and becoming generally warmer, especially in the west.
NSW:  Mainly dry through much of the state but the chance of a shower or storm over the far northeast.
Queensland: Showers and scattered storms in the west, spreading east along the trough.  Isolated showers over the northeast tropical coast, scattered showers and storms in the southwest Gulf country.  Chance of a shower or storm in the southeast, but more likely west of the ranges closer to the trough.
NT: Widespread showers and storms through the Territory during Thursday nigh and Friday, particularly in the northwest.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms over the Kimberley and inland.  Showers developing in the southwest  and along the south coast with the passage of a strong cold front during Thursday night and Friday.
SA:  Showers and isolated storms in the north of the state. Strengthening winds ahead of the trough  and front in the west early Friday moving through much of the state during the day.  Scattered showers with isolated storms developing later, with showers along the coast following the wind change.
Tasmania:  Showers, mainly in the west Thursday night clearing throughout later Friday. 

October 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page