November 2002 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page Victoria |
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Date | Name | Information |
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17 | . | Overview: With the summer synoptic pattern now established across Australia, the trough moving into Victoria during Sunday and Monday will become quasi-stationary. A ridge of high pressure will move from south of Western Australia into the Bight Monday and Tuesday. This ridge and associated high pressure will move to Bass Strait with a centre of high pressure moving to south of Victoria on Friday, with a ridge strengthening up the east coast Friday to Sunday. The quasi-stationary trough over Victoria on Monday will contract into New South Wales and western Queensland later Tuesday and remain through to the weekend. The west coast heat trough over Western Australia will persist through this week, possibly moving offshore of the SW Land Division midweek. Rainfall potential |
16 | . | Overview: An amplifying upper trough is crossing Western Australia with an associated surface low pressure embedded within which is interacting with the west coast trough moving inland through Friday. The high in the Bight has moved through Bass Strait during Friday and is directing south-easterly winds across the southeast of the country. A trough over northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland has become quasi-stationery during the past day or three and moist inflow from the Tasman Sea has helped trigger widespread showers (some heavy) and storms (some severe) from the Hunter to Fraser Island. Discussion: As the high continues to move east, a broader onshore flow from the Tasman will increase available moisture in the lower levels over eastern Australia during the weekend, particularly later Saturday and during Sunday in teh southeast. The trough moving through Western Australia during Friday will cross much of South Australia during Saturday, with Sunday seeing it moving through Victoria. Rainfall potential |
15 | David Jones | The progs are starting to show some
interesting developments for early next week for the SE. The front due on Sunday looks
like it will largely stall over Victoria for about three days, while an amplifying upper
trough build through the bight. With lots of juicy moisture across Western Australia there
is the very real possibility of us seeing isolated-to-widespread showers and storm
activity for about a 3 day period in the SE. Keep those fingers crossed as we really really need some rain in Victoria. Hopefully this system doesn't die 100km west of Melbourne like the front on Tuesday.... see here |
12 | . | Overview: A typical summer type synoptic setup is becoming established with the interior of the continent becoming seasonally very warm. This is forcing the high pressure belt to the south of the continent with ridging along the southern coastline, and northwards along the east coast. Summer troughs have commenced over the continent in the west and east of the country. Discussion: A trough will move from South Australia to the eastern states during Tuesday and Wednesday. A ridge will follow from south of Western Australia moving into the Bight and then into western Bass Strait. A broad area of very warm to hot air east of this trough will bring very high temperatures to inland areas of eastern Australia over the next several days. The passage of the trough through southern Australia will be accompanied by mainly high cloud, with a risk of storms over eastern South Australia, Victoria and western New South Wales from early Tuesday into Wednesday. The southern portion of this trough will move into the southern Tasman, with the northern portion becoming slow moving over northern New South Wales and southern Queensland towards the middle of the week A ridge moving in to the head of the Bight will develop a new high pressure cell west of Kangaroo Island later Tuesday. This high pressure cell will move through Bass Strait and send a ridge up the east coast by Thursday. Another trough will approach the southeast from Western Australia later this week. Rainfall potential |
11 | . | Overview: The high in the Bight is located just west of Tasmania and has strengthened during Sunday. A trough of low pressure lies through southern Queensland and northeast New South Wales, between this high, which influences the southeast of the country, and a ridge of high pressure along the Queensland coast. The west coast trough originates in the Kimberley and has deepened southwards to the southern coast and a front is approaching the southwest corner of the continent. Discussion: The high to the west of Tasmania will drift northeast into the Tasman and combine with the ridge already located there. The trough lying through southern Queensland and northeastern New south Wales will remain quasi-stationary through Monday and likely trigger further showers and storms as moisture is drawn into the area from the northeast. The west coast trough will drift east into South Australia and the approaching high will ridge along the southern coast of Western Australia with a heat low forming in the Pilbara as the cooler moist air migrates slowly out of the area. Areas to watch: The weak area of upper vorticity is still apparent and drifting slowly east. Interesting if it interacts with the surface trough over the northeast of New South Wales..... Rainfall potential |
10 | . | Overview: The high in the Tasman directs a weak ridge along the Queensland coast. The high in the Bight near to 35°S lies to the north of a broad westerly belt with embedded front affecting Tasmania. The heat trough in Western Australia deepened through Saturday and extends to the southwest corner just inland from the coast, with a broad area of moist air to its east with scattered showers and storms across much of inland Western Australia, and the inland of the Northern Territory and South Australia. The trough has stalled over New South Wales, but remained largely inactive through Saturday. Discussion: The high in the Bight will drift southeast and strengthen through Sunday, with a developing ridge to the south ending the westerly regime that has been affecting Tasmania for the past few days. A ridge of high pressure will be maintained along the Queensland coast. The Western Australian trough will continue to deepen and drift only very slowly east. A broad ridge of high pressure is ridging in to our latitudes from the Indian Ocean. The pressure gradient across continental Australia will remain slack. Areas to watch: an area of vorticity within an upper trough is located over South Australia and should be watched for the next 24 hours or so. Rainfall potential |
9 | . | Overview: A trough through New South Wales (and broadly into Victoria) lies between the high in the Tasman Sea and a ridge of high pressure extending across the Bight and into the southeast of the continent. The north of the continent remains under the influence of a broad trough with an upper low over Western Australia and weak surface trough triggering scattered showers and storms over the Interior and Goldfields. Moisture over the continent is concentrated over inland Western Australia. Tasmania is influenced by a broad zonal westerly flow with the upper jet reaching 130knots during the afternoon. Discussion: Tasmania will remain influenced by the zonal westerly flow during Saturday with the further passage of a series of fronts and a strong west - southwesterly flow. The trough lying through New South Wales and Queensland will remain and slow moving and largely inactive, especially in the south, but scattered showers and storms will be triggered further north. The high in the Tasman will ridge broadly further west into Queensland than during Friday. The trough extending inland of the west coast will deepen southwards and likely bisect the high ridging along the southern coast during Saturday. Rainfall potential |
8 | . | Overview: The baric ridge lies between 30 and 35°S, bisected through central Australia by a trough extending from the Kimberley to the western districts of Victoria, with storms triggered in the moister conditions over the West Australian Interior. The high in the Tasman Sea extends a weak ridge along the Queensland coast with a weak trough to its inland, while a series of fronts embedded in the westerly flow to the south of the baric ridge is approaching Tasmania. The ITCZ makes its first appearance for the season near the Solomon Islands. Discussion: The high in the Tasman will remain slow moving while the trough moves through Victoria and western and central New South Wales during Thursday night and Friday. The high over the Indian Ocean is ridging in along the southern coast of Western Australia, and the heat trough is deepening inland of the west coast. A series of fronts will affect Tasmanian weather during Friday. Rainfall potential |
7 | . | Overview: The high (1023hPa) edges eastwards toward the Tasman Sea through southern Victoria and Bass Strait and extends a ridge to the south. An inactive trough lies inland of the east coast, while troughs in northern Australia extend both through inland Queensland to the southeast and through inland Western Australia. These two troughs are triggering showers and scattered storms. A front is approaching the southwest corner during the latter part of Wednesday. Discussion: The baric ridge, which is holding its position near to 30°S over the oceans to the east and west of the continent, is split over the land by the trough currently moving east from Western Australia and the front passing through the western Bight. To the south of the baric ridge, a more mobile westerly pattern is emerging, with fronts likely to move quickly through the Bight and particularly affecting Tasmania's weather for the next day or two. The trough and front will move through South Australia and into the southeast during Wednesday with a ridge of high pressure building in along the southern coast of Western Australia to its west. Moisture buildup over the northwest and tropics will continue with an infeed of tropical moisture from near Indonesia moving onto the continent. Rainfall potential |
6 | . | Overview: The high near Adelaide has begun to weaken as it has moved east through Tuesday, with the west coast trough deepening southward and bisecting the baric ridge. A trough lying through inland Queensland is triggering isolated showers and storms. Northern Australia remains under the influence of generally lower pressures with atmospheric moisture levels steadily increasing, particularly over the Territory and Kimberley. An active front ahead of a broad upper trough is approaching southwest Western Australia. Cloud in the Bight marks the location of a baroclinic zone ahead of the trough. Discussion: Moisture over the Kimberley and Interior of Western Australia will continue to build, with isolated showers and storms during Tuesday night and Wednesday. The west coast trough will move east during the next 24 hours with convective activity becoming more frequent closer to the trough axis. The high moving across the southeast of the continent will be squeezed between the westerly flow to the south, which will extend more northwards during Wednesday, and the trough to the north, bringing briefly cooler nights before it moves into the Tasman Sea. Rainfall potential |
5 | . | Overview: A slow moving high is located in the Bight and is moving only slowly east. The trough remains through southern Queensland and extends to the northwest of the continent and is triggering showers and storms along much of its length, particularly in the eastern parts of Queensland. A deep low and trough is passing south of Tasmania with a cold southwesterly flow and snowfalls over the central ranges of the island. Light snowfalls were recorded over the alpine areas of Victoria with sleet falling occasionally to lower levels during the morning as the cold pool moved across the southeast.. Discussion: The high in the Bight will move slowly across the southeast of the continent towards the Tasman Sea and weaken during the next day or so before restrengthening off the coast. The southwesterly flow set up between the lows to the south and the high moving east from the Bight will continue to bring showery conditions to western Tasmania. The west coast trough will deepen and move east during Tuesday while a front will pass along the southern coast of Western Australia. Moisture will continue to build over the northern tropics, particularly in the northwest, with continuing scattered storms. Rainfall potential |
4 | . | Overview: The trough has moved only slowly through New South Wales and southern Queensland during Sunday and has intensified somewhat, triggering storms in both of these states as well as northeastern South Australia. The high in the Tasman Sea remains quasi-stationary and ridges along the Queensland coast. The high in the Bight has also slowed its eastward movement and has strengthened after budding off from the ridge to the west during the day. A ridge is building in from this high across the southeast of the continent. Much of northern Australia remains under a trough and the west coast trough is slowly deepening inland of the coast. A deep low is located to the southwest of the continent. Discussion: The high will remain slow moving across the Bight during Monday, while the west coast trough will continue to deepen. An onshore flow from the southwest will affect Victoria and Tasmania with scattered showers along the coast continuing. Showers are also likely during Monday from the north coast of New South Wales extending north to the central Queensland coast associated with the trough, which will remain slow moving. The trough extending from the Kimberley to the eastern seaboard will trigger scattered storms along much of its length. Areas to watch: the mid level cold pool SW of Mt Gambier. Rainfall potential |
3 | . | Overview: The high in the Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the Queensland coast, while a satellite low lies to the west of Tasmania with a weak front approaching the southeastern corner of the continent. The trough that passed through Victoria with and produced widespread storms during Saturday afternoon and evening is moving through New South Wales during Sunday while its northwestern extent remains anchored in the Kimberley region. A high ridges in from the Indian Ocean along the southern coast of Western Australia. Discussion: The trough over the northwest will remain quasi-stationary during Sunday through the Kimberley and the Territory, while its eastern extent will move through the rest of New South Wales and into southern and central Queensland. The ridge along the southern West Australian coast will bud off, strengthen and locate in the Bight for the remainder of Sunday. The front associated with the satellite low will cross the southeastern states, triggering further showers, but little in the way of convective activity. Rainfall potential |
2 | . | Overview: A ridge of high pressure lies against the southeast of the continent, while the rest of the country remains under the influence of various troughs - through northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland to the northwest, the complex trough and frontal system moving into the the west of South Australia, and the broad trough over the Territory. Another low is in the southwest Bight while a high in the Indian Ocean is ridging in along and just south of the south coast of Western Australia. Widespread storm activity through central Australia during Thursday night and redeveloping later Friday with storms also in southeast Queensland. Discussion: The high against the east coast will strengthen during Saturday as it moves slowly away from the coast and into the Tasman Sea. The positioning of this high will slow the progress of the (currently) amplifying upper and surface troughs and frontal system through the eastern states. The high will continue to ridge in along the southern continental coastline in the west. The trough over the northwest of the continent will remain to its north. Showers and storms associated with this system will move east during Saturday, with northerly winds and increasing temperatures ahead of the system. Rainfall potential |
1 | . | Overview: A significant increase in available moisture over much of the continent during Thursday, and with a trough extending from northeastern New South Wales to the northwest, along with a trough moving through eastern Western Australia has triggered significant storms across large areas of inland and northern Australia during Thursday night. The trough moving through eastern Australia has stalled, while a high in the Bight is ridging across the southeast of the continent. A surface front associated with a deepening upper trough is approaching the southwest of the continent. Discussion: The trough over eastern Australia extending to the Territory will likely remain very slow moving over the next day or so, with an active front moving through the Bight to interact with the trough over central Australia and significant available moisture, triggering widespread storms, especially within the strongly baroclinic area ahead of the front south of 30°S. Some local falls may be heavy. The high in the Bight will move quickly towards the Tasman Sea, with the trough and front following and moving through much of South Australia during Friday and approaching the southeast of the country during Saturday. The low moving into and through the Bight is likely to strengthen before moving southeast later Friday. Strengthening northwesterly winds and increasing temperatures ahead of the trough over the southeast. Rainfall potential |
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